So what now for May?

Q What will Theresa May do next? A First she must see off a possible leadership challenge. As early as this week, a vote of no-confidence could be triggered if 48 Conservative MPs call for Mrs May’s resignation. More than 20 have already done so. Q How could she be toppled? A Mrs May would need to win a majority (half of the MPs’ votes plus one) to win, and thus be protected from a further challenge for a year. If she lost the vote, contenders would put themselves forward for a new leadership election. Q Who would decide on the new Tory leader? A At first, MPs would vote for their favourite candidate in successive rounds until those with the lowest number of supporters are knocked out and only two choices remain. Conservative Party members across Britain would then get to vote for the final winner. Q And if Mrs May survives the threat to her leadership? A The second risk is that her Brexit deal will not get through parliament. Last week’s withdrawal agreement will likely be signed off by EU leaders this month and could be voted on by MPs as early as December 7. Q How do the votes stack up? A Mrs May needs 320 MPs to vote for her deal, but the Conservatives have not had a majority since last year’s disastrous general election, and the DUP’s 10 MPs, who have propped up the Tories for the past year, have already said they will not back it. Anyone with a government post will support Mrs May and some backbench MPs remain loyal, but it is thought that together they will only number about 250. Q So how can Mrs May get over the line? A Government whips must spend the next few weeks trying to win over Tory MPs considering rebelling. If the deal is voted down, Britain would face a dramatic no-deal exit in March. Q Could she still get a better deal from the EU? A Many Tory rebels would be won over if the withdrawal deal made it easier for Britain to leave the customs union with the EU. Currently, the agreement states that if a future trade deal is not done by the end of 2020, the so-called ‘backstop’ arrangement would lock the UK into the EU customs territory, limiting the ability to sign deals with other countries. But Angela Merkel has already said there is ‘no question’ of reopening talks.