20 reasons Leo ducked election
Resurgent Greens mean Fine Gael would struggle to win seats at the moment
TAOISEACH Leo Varadkar may have cited ongoing concerns over Brexit as his main reason for deciding to delay the election until 2020.
In fact, sources within the party believe the Taoiseach is of the view that despite a recent Brexit bounce, the party is not set up to return to power.
One source noted: ‘Leo is the biggest political nerd going. He is aware that there are at least 20 constituencies where Fine Gael are failing to thrive.’
The party is particularly concerned about the rise of the Greens with one senior strategist warning: ‘The Greens are like Phil Hogan in 2011. Just as we borrowed FF votes they are asking for a loan of our votes. But like the PDs they will use those votes to put FF in.’
Other sources confirmed the real reason behind the Taoiseach’s cautious approach flows from serious doubts about his capacity to win a snap Brexit election. ‘Leo,’ one senior strategist warned, ‘fears Brexit could be a dead-cat bounce. He is very conservative and fears an election could be a case of running to lose. We wants time to soften up our Green friends and then we will see where we are.
‘He is the ultimate pragmatist. He is also the boss. The party might be 80/20 in favour of an election, but he calls the shots.’
Fine Gael has a minimum of 20 ‘problem’ constituencies where, on recent trends, it will struggle to retain the seats it has or gain the estimated ten seats it needs to return to power.
Up to the Brexit deal the temperature has been cold for FG in rural Ireland and cooling in Dublin.
Though Fine Gael appears to be in recovery the Taoiseach looks to have taken the view that it is too fragile and too recent to take a great November election gamble.
CARLOW KILKENNY Fighting seat loss
It will be a case of old-fashioned Civil War politics as Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil face a straight fight for Carlow. Any swing to Fianna Fáil could easily see FF Senator Jennifer Murnane O’Connor replace feisty Pat Deering.
CAVAN MONAGHAN
Seeking seat gain
Fine Gael plans to regain Joe O’Reilly’s seat, lost in 2016, are facing a serious Fianna Fáil challenge from Senator Robbie Gallagher. This is one of the many seats that will go with the national swing.
CLARE Fighting seat loss
Rural anger with Shane Ross and the FG ‘posh boys’ means Leo will, on current form, struggle to win two seats in any rural constituency. The addition of Martin Conway to the prosaic Pat Breen/Joe Carey ticket is more likely to cost the party one of its two current seats rather than make a gain.
LIMERICK COUNTY Fighting seat loss
If FF’s Niall Collins is to redeem himself after Vote-fumble, he needs to bring in a running mate. Fine Gael’s rural difficulties mean one of Tom Neville and Patrick O’Donovan will be seeking the political lifebuoys. Outside of FF, Independents will be scoping out the second FG seat too.
DUBLIN WEST Seeking seat gain
The Greens are a thorn in Leo’s side even in his own constituency where the Taoiseach’s ambivalent plans to take out Joan Burton may be scuppered by up-to-now-serial-Green-nohoper Roderic O’Connor. Or by Joan for that matter.
DÚN LAOGHAIRE Fighting two-seat loss
Fine Gael’s chances of a Dún Laoghaire debacle have been seriously increased by the Green rise. Given the weakness of the FG party ticket, the Greens are poised to feast on at least one of the three current FG seats. FF have designs on a second.
DUBLIN RATHDOWN Seeking seat gain
Fine Gael ambitions for Neale Richmond may be seriously impacted by the Green bubble. The rise of Catherine Martin means that ‘Mr Brexit’ is likely to end up fighting it out with Shane Ross for the final seat.
DUBLIN BAY SOUTH Fighting seat loss
If the Greens devour the ‘posh’ Fine Gael vote in this constituency, which could happen if Hazel Chu runs there for them, this could open the door for Michael McDowell to take out Eoghan Murphy … or even Kate O’Connell.
DUBLIN SOUTH WEST Seeking seat gain
Fine Gael currently plans to annex a second seat, preferably that of current ally Katherine Zappone, via the quixotic candidacy of Ellen O’Malley Dunlop. But, their hopes in this key bellwether constituency are likely to be stymied by the Green rise.
FINGAL NORTH Seeking seat gain
In Fingal, Fine Gael’s plan, where James Reilly the Comeback Kid might profit from the departure of Clare Daly, could be scuppered by the Greens or a resurgent FF candidate, Lorraine Clifford-Lee.
DUBLIN BAY NORTH Seeking seat gain
In the literal Group of Death, FG’s quixotic plans for any seat gain via the entertaining Senator Catherine Noone have been compromised by the Green rise. FF and Labour will be lurking with intent, too. Richard Bruton to be elected, on current form, on his own again unless there is a huge swing to FG.
DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL Fighting seat loss
If Leo and Eoghan Murphy don’t up their game it’s poised to be curtains for Catherine Byrne who faces a case of: ‘If the Greens don’t get you Fianna Fail’s Catherine Ardagh will.’
DUBLIN MID-WEST Fighting seat loss
Not normally fertile territory for the Greens but the departure of Frances Fitzgerald offers a real opportunity for either stealth Green Paul Gogarty, or a full-blown Green candidate to take out newbie FG candidate Emer Higgins. The by-election will tell a tale.
LOUTH Fighting seat loss
They were laughing when Peter Fitzpatrick left but that’s stopped for a long time. Even with the departure of Gerry Adams, odds are against the latest ‘colourful’ McGahon retaining the second seat.
ROSCOMMON GALWAY Seeking seat gain
Likely to end up with a battle between FF’s Eugene Murphy and Senator Maura Hopkins for the last seat. Fine Gael, understandably, are not at all confident about their chances.
SLIGO LEITRIM Fighting seat loss
The departure of Tony McLoughlin and of his designated successor,
Sinead Maguire, from the more densely populated Sligo heartland of the constituency means Sligo Leitrim is almost as dysfunctional as Dún Laoghaire, though in a slightly less colourful way. The party will struggle to retain particularly if Independent Marian Harkin runs.
TIPPERARY Fighting seat loss
Tipperary, with zero FG seats, is a must win if FG are to be back in government. Problem is that Kate Newman and Garrett Aherne are just about the worst geographic combination going. FG will contend for the last seat but unless the swing is with them, they will struggle to displace any of the established giants.
LAOIS OFFALY Fighting seat loss
Marcella Corcoran Kennedy has seen off her local Fine Gael rival, but the struggling axed Junior Minister faces a real battle to see off Renua-free John Leahy, Offaly FF rival or new Green Pippa Hackett.
WICKLOW Seeking seat gain
Spiritually, Wicklow may almost be part of Dublin, but Fine Gael plans for three out of five seats via a Billy Timmins return are likely to be stymied by a dreaded tag team of the Greens and Social Democrats.
WEXFORD Fighting seat loss
Paul Kehoe only survived by 52 votes in 2016. Ironically, on this occasion the addition of the formidable Verona Murphy may place Michael D’Arcy in greater trouble. Two into five will represent a formidable struggle unless a national swing changes FG from being the hunted to the hunters.
ANALYSIS
It will be all about the swing when it comes to FG and the next election. Currently, the party is trapped in a defensive posture in 12 of the 20 key constituencies that are likely to decide the election. Crucially, they are struggling to make previously anticipated gains.
When these numbers were crunched, this is the picture that would have faced An Taoiseach and his advisers. In this scenario, it is clear, an election now would be a gamble too far.