Three reasons why there will be no election until mid-2020
THEY say that the best way to kill off a bad product is to advertise it well. The same thing applies to a government that has been an out-and-out failure on all matters of consequence to the public – a general election with all the scrutiny that entails is the advertising part.
There was unwarranted excitement in the past week about a snap election, with images of Taoiseach Leo Varadkar running to the country and doing the dirty on his longsuffering partner in bland political nothingness, Micheál Martin.
Wiser counsel has prevailed, convincing the Taoiseach that he and Fine Gael should be extremely careful what they wish for.
The latest opinion poll suggesting Fine Gael has opened an 8% lead on Fianna Fáil (32% as against 24%), gave rise to lazy speculation that Taoiseach Varadkar would finally submit to the people’s judgement. There was never any chance of that because Varadkar knows full well the desperate weaknesses of his minority government that would be impossible to explain away in the unpredictable turmoil of a general election.
Like a clapped-out car salesman he knows that his aul’ banger would fail every political NCT imaginable once the electorate pulled the lever and started rummaging around under the bonnet. The engine is knackered, the mileage has been clocked, the tyres are as bald as a Greek monk and the whole thing is held together with baling twine.
There are three main reasons why the general election is unlikely to take place until we’re well into next year.
Firstly, one doesn’t need to be a political savant to realise that after almost nine years in power Fine Gael are unable to point to one substantial political achievement. Admittedly, the economy has been returned to working order – but that’s due entirely to the strictures imposed by the Troika when we lost our sovereignty in November, 2010.
With the Troika off our backs Fine Gael promptly abandoned proper financial diligence, leaving the Fiscal Advisory Council in despair as commitments to long-term spending mounted on the back of shortterm revenues such as the €10billion swing-surge in corporation tax. Paschal Donohoe’s pretence that State finances are properly managed under his watch would be viciously exposed in a general election.
The old reliables like health and homelessness and the unaffordable cost of housing in the greater Dublin area, are as far from resolution now as they’ve ever been. Also, the Government’s blank cheque, ‘send us whatever bill you like’ attitude to the Children’s Hospital speaks to a special type of political disability.
Secondly, there’s no pressure at all from Micheál Martin for an early election. He’s being constantly reassured by this Government’s demonstrable ineptitude that the longer
Leo and the Posh Gang stay in office the more they’ll be found out. Tragically, the CervicalCheck disaster shows how right he is.
Further, the Fianna Fáil leader also knows that within Leinster
House, doubts started to grow late last year among Fine Gael TDs and Senators about the wisdom of choosing a social liberal as their leader at a time when even more pressing social issues like providing homes for thousands of families are left to one side and neglected.
Martin’s policy of giving Fine Gael enough rope to hang themselves looked even more prescient on Thursday with confirmation that the number of people forced to live in emergency accommodation increased again, for the third month in a row, to over 10,397, including 3,873 children.
The dismal performance of the Minister for Hopelessness and
Homelessness Eoghan Murphy on radio following these latest figures can only have provided more encouragement to Fianna Fáil that their day is just around the corner.
Thirdly, Fianna Fáil do well in general election campaigns. In the run-up to the February 27, 2016, general election opinion polls put Fianna Fáil trailing Fine Gael by as much as 14%, (February 6), 12% (February 10) and 10% (February 23). That all changed on election day when the actual gap between the parties was down to just 1.2%.
Leo Varadkar insists he’s avoided an election because of Brexit. That’s complete nonsense. If he really wanted to go to polls then now’s his opportunity following the decision in the House of Commons to do just that.
Barring an unforeseen banana skin Leo and Micheál, like true patriots, will ‘struggle on in the national interest’ until about next May.