Party members block plans for a quick Coalition
HARDLINERS in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil who believe they can break the political impasse with another general election are being warned by their respective party leaderships that President Michael D Higgins may not allow it.
Initial hopes in the respective leaderships of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael that a grand coalition deal with the Greens could be struck quickly have received a blow as visceral grassroots opposition emerged.
However, those influential figures in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil that have been in talks about an historic coalition for two weeks now, believe public pressure and ultimately a wise voice in Áras an Uachtaráin will push aside all opposition.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil supporters believe that a coalition of their parties would signal the end of their individual existences – and the old animosities remain.
And Green Party sources said last night that many have underestimated the problems facing its party in getting a coalition through its national conference – which requires a 60% majority.
However, it is the leadership of Fianna Fáil that faces the greatest number of obstacles to any coalition because it has to get a special ard fheis to approve going into coalition. The ard fheis may be attended by all its membership, which far exceeds 20,000.
‘This is an existential crisis for Fianna Fáil,’ said a TD. ‘Half the party would vote against a coalition with Sinn Féin and the other half would vote against a coalition with Fine Gael.’
And that grassroots opposition in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is backed by dissenting voices on their frontbenches. Opposition is evident with Fine Gael’s Richard Bruton – who backs a complex confidence and supply arrangement – and Barry Cowen, who indicated in this newspaper last week that he would consider another general election rather than an unpalatable coalition.
And to complicate matters further, a growing number of Fianna Fáil TDs, having consulted with the grassroots, believe Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has been too hasty in ruling out Sinn Féin.
Despite vocal opposition in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to a Grand Coalition the most influential figures in the two parties believe that an historic coalition, along with the Greens, is the only option for a stable government.
‘People are talking tough now but in four or five weeks’ time the public pressure for us to form a government will become unbearable,’ said a senior source in Fianna Fáil. ‘Just wait until you hear Joe Duffy’s Liveline then.
‘And then you have a canny politician in Áras an Uachtaráin. If Leo Varadkar was to go to him sometime in April, say, asking to dissolve the Dáil, Michael D Higgins is sure to say no,’ said the Fianna Fáil source.
Sources in both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are convinced the President will only dissolve the Dáil when there is no prospect of a Government being formed.
‘The President will call out this madness,’ said a Fine Gael source. ‘It won’t be Sinn Féin that will be blamed as they have repeatedly stated their willingness to go into government.’
Fine Gael is unified on one thing – that a reverse to the confidence and supply arrangement is unacceptable.
‘Confidence and supply is totally discredited,’ said a Fine Gael source, ‘look at what it did to Fianna Fáil. They had none of the benefits of coalition but received all the damage. That won’t be happening.
‘We will demand a rotating Taoiseach and nothing less.’
Another Fine Gael source put the whole situation into a colourful and rural context.
‘Yes our members are opposed to it,’ said a Fine Gael source, ‘but it’s like a bull and a cow in a field, they might not fancy what has to be done but they know it has to be done. So a couple of jolts with the cattle prod are what is needed to encourage them.’
Four independent TDs voted for Micheál Martin in the Dáil on Thursday, which gave him encouragement going into coalition talks.
But Fianna Fáil, historically a party which accommodates divergent views, is in danger of splitting.
During the election count two weeks ago Fianna Fáil frontbenchers interpreted statements from party leader Micheál Martin as meaning he was considering a u-turn on his initial hostility to coalescing with Sinn Féin.
That led to outspoken opposition to such a move from Jim O’Callaghan, Michael McGrath, Jack Chambers and Barry Cowen.
Mr Martin has now reverted to strong opposition to a Sinn Féin coalition.
Meanwhile, in a sign that it’s not only their own members who are struggling with the proposition of an FF/FG government, Social Democrats co-leader Catherine Murphy yesterday definitively ruled her party out of joining any such coalition.
In a tweet, Ms Murphy put any doubts about her party’s loyalties to the two main parties by posting: ‘It is a definite no to FF FG.’
This came a day after Ms Murphy had said it was ‘unlikely’ her party would support a FF-FG administration, as the Soc Dems held talks with various parties on forming a Government.
She had said: ‘It isn’t the kind of government we would want and I don’t think it is the type of government people told us they wanted.’