Who will hold the cards once all hands are dealt?
One of these men will win the pot in a high-stakes game for the nation’s finances
THERE are only three serious contenders for the second-most important post in government: holding the purse strings as finance minister. They are: Fianna Fáil’s Michael McGrath, Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe and Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty, according to odds worked out for the Irish Mail on Sunday by bookies Paddy Power.
A Fianna Fáil/Sinn Féin coalition was priced at 3/1 by the bookmaker initially but the odds have since shifted significantly. An FF/SF/Green combination is currently giving odds of 16/1.
While Micheál Martin was 1/3 this week to be taoiseach, Mary Lou McDonald’s odds to be tánaiste have drifted as far as 7/1 while Leo Varadkar’s have tightened up to a solid 13/8.
So a Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael coalition looks four times more likely than a Fianna Fáil/Sinn Féin one.
However, ‘the battle for the position of next finance minister looks like being a three-horse race at the moment,’ said a spokeswoman for the bookmaker.
With only two seats between the three parties – now that Fianna Fáil has lost Seán Ó Fearghaíl to the Ceann Comhairle role – we are in uncharted territory when it comes to assigning key ministries among two of three similarsized parties.
A rotating taoiseach would delight both Mary Lou and Leo, who would become either a historic first female/Sinn Féin leader or first third-term Fine Gael leader (kind of) respectively.
It might just about save Micheál Martin from being the first Fianna Fáil leader in history not to be taoiseach.
If Fine Gael manages to squeeze a rotating taoiseach position out of any coalition deal, Fianna Fáil, as the biggest party, would definitely want first dibs on finance minister.
But a rotating taoisecah would be a hard-wrung concession that Fianna Fáil could probably avoid as they are in the driving seat. And if Micheál Martin doesn’t job-share as taoiseach, then the other party could be given the roles of both tánaiste and finance as consolation.
‘With Fianna Fáil likely to be leading the next government, its finance spokesman is the favourite (at evens). But even if Fianna Fáil is the biggest party, it is still possible that, as part of the government formation talks, the second-most important position in the government will go to their proposed coalition partner,’ said the Paddy Power spokeswoman.
So what are their odds and what can we expect in the finance hotseat?
MICHAEL McGRATH ODDS: EVENS
IF the bookies are right, Fianna Fáil’s Michael McGrath will decide our financial future for the next five years. He has been Fianna Fáil’s finance spokesman since 2011 and is regarded as an able performer.
‘I would like to see Michael McGrath as finance minister,’ said Brendan Burgess, founder of Askaboutmoney.com. ‘He has been excellent on both the tracker mortgage issue and the scandal of our high variable mortgage rates. Whenever a borrower contacted him, he always got back to them.’
Mr Burgess particularly liked Mr McGrath’s proposed bill to cap mortgage rates. Although this is not included in the Fianna Fáil manifesto – it did pop up in Sinn Féin’s.
David Hall, director of the Irish Mortgage Holders Organisation, doesn’t often agree with Mr Burgess but he also gives Mr McGrath a thumbs up, especially for his work on a bill to regulate vulture funds, which buy up distressed bank mortgages.
Author and financial advisor John
Lowe would also prefer Michael McGrath. “He deserves a shot... having been apprentice for so long. Plus, he is a good, solid, sound individual whom I would entrust to make the necessary financial decisions to better our country,’ he said.
Dermott Jewell, policy and council advisor of the Consumers’ Association of Ireland also prefers Michael McGrath over Paschal
Donohoe for his experience and understanding of the economy.
He would see that appointment as at least “a form of change”. He has understanding of the “prudential and economic background.”
PASCHAL DONOHOE ODDS: 2/1
A SAFE pair of hands? Fine Gael would like us to think so. But with everyone clamouring for change, perhaps Mr Donohoe has been too safe, if not downright uninspiring.
None of our four consumer advocates had much to say about Paschal, and that perhaps is telling in itself.
Mr Hall blamed him for supporting vulture funds, while Mr Jewell only mentioned him once – to place him as second choice for the finance ministry. Neither Mr Burgess nor Mr Lowe had anything to say about him!
Fine Gael was starting to get the numbers right on housing – but it was too little too late. In its latest manifesto, the party was also starting to cost properly for health, a budget that went out of control every year on its watch.
What didn’t add up was that the party sells itself as rewarding middle earners and responsible people like parents and pensioners – and abjectly failed to do so while appearing to be a bit too pleased with itself, and none more so than Paschal himself.
Mr Donohoe spent much of our spare cash on public sector pay demands, (a cycle that is likely to continue whoever is in power).
But then he tried to kid us that we were getting tax ‘giveaways’ in his first two budgets that might be called steady or unimaginative depending on your political hue.
His tiny tax cuts were more than offset by stealth taxes like ‘voluntary’ contributions to run our
schools and the failure to adjust tax bands and allowances for inflation. Then in the third budget, Mr Donohoe didn’t even give us a pretend ‘giveaway’ to offset this. So we ended up paying more tax.
PEARSE DOHERTY, ODDS: 4/1
NONE of our experts had anything bad to say about Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty.
‘I have worked with Michael (McGrath) and Pearse and they have shown a commitment to consumers versus Mr Donohoe’s commitment to vulture and cuckoo funds,’ said Mr Hall.
“Their performance on banking and vultures and insurance in the Oireachtas Finance Committee has been excellent, holding banks and the Central Bank to account.”
While Mr Jewell’s preferred option was Mr McGrath, he said: ‘If anything came from the election results it is that patience is all but eroded and the alternatives suggested by Doherty will continue to ring in the Dáil’.
However, two of our four advocates were uncomfortable about Sinn Féin’s economic policies.
Sinn Féin promises to abolish both property tax and USC on incomes under €30,000 and pay for these very costly measures by hammering banks, high earners and, most controversially, by imposing a swingeing tax on the multi-national companies that have driven most of our economic growth.
Mr Burgess said: ‘Doherty was very good on the mortgage rates and tracker issues. But, while all parties are irresponsible with economic policy, they are the most irresponsible of all.’
Mr Lowe said: ‘If only Pearse was not in the Sinn Féin party’