It’s a four-way deal, with Leo at the helm
FIANNA Fáil and Fine Gael are ready to present a programme for Government to the Regional Independents and a fourth party to form an administration, the Irish Mail on Sunday can reveal.
Tipperary TD Michael Lowry told the Mail last night that the Regional Independent Group, of which he is a member, believes that either the Labour Party or the Social Democrats will be required to enter power. He also believes Leo Varadkar will continue in office at the start of a rotating Taoiseach arrangement with Micheal Martin.
Fine Gael Ministers said they see it as inevitable that Mr Varadkar will ‘go first’ as Taoiseach. Even a senior Fianna Fáil source said: ‘With the commendable way Leo Varadkar and Simon Harris have performed in recent weeks it is very hard for us to push for a new Taoiseach and Minister for Health. We will have to wait.’
Mr Lowry also said that Peadar Toibin, one of their nine members, will not enter government with Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. However, Mr Toibin yesterday told the MoS that his Aontu party would rule
‘It’s very hard for us to push for new Taoiseach’
nothing out. He said: ‘Aontu is open to discuss government formation. No political party can walk away from the crisis and say it is someone else’s job.’
A combination of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the eight Regional Independents and Mr Toibin would give the government 81 votes, just enough for a majority.
Negotiators will begin approaching the Labour Party and the Social Democrats over the coming days.
The Labour Party leadership contest will be finalised within the next week. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have interpreted recent statements from Alan Kelly – who is favourite – as meaning he wants to change course and bring Labour into government.
The Green Party has been discounted by all sides as potential partners after Eamon Ryan yesterday told our sister paper, the Irish Daily Mail, he wants a National Government of Unity.
The next hurdle to get over is agreement on a Taoiseach.
A Fine Gael Minister said last night; ‘My gut says it is Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour and some Independents with Fine Gael going first in the office of Taoiseach.’
Mr Lowry says the Independents are only interested in signing up for a government that lasts for the full five-year term. That, he adds, would require, a further grouping. ‘Our group – excluding Peadar Toibin, so that means eight of us – realise how the economy is going to be after this, how damaging it is going to be, how sustained the recovery will involve limitations and financial measures. ‘If we are to get through it and if the economy is to recover then the one thing that is needed is a stable, secure government. The worst scenario for any group or individual supporting a government is that it would hang in for the first two years, you would have the penal measures, and then you would have an election.
‘It would put the politicians who are being responsible at a disadvantage to those who are reneging on their responsibility.’
Mr Lowry insisted there needs to be a four-way government.
‘I think that you do need to get solidity, you need four legs to the stool,’ he added. ‘You need Fianna Fáil; Fine Gael; the Social Democrats or Labour plus six to eight Independents. That would show the public that we have a government in place that would not be toppled and therefore the national interest should be to the forefront.
‘I understand Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will produce a programme for government, that platform would be put before others and they would either agree or modify that platform and then work towards it.’ Fine Gael TDs have warned that Mr Varadkar will have to be Taoiseach for the first 15 months of any new administration.
One source said: ‘Our focus group is social media and it is astonishing. People want Leo to stay. It’s overwhelming. People want a boss.’
In any deal, they said: ‘We could sacrifice Paschal or even Coveney, but retaining Leo and Harris, astonishingly, is an imperative.’
One minister warned: ‘The public are not interested in his caretaker status. Sinn Féin tried to raise that hare and quickly dropped it.’
One stunned TD said: ‘If you told me after the election that the two people who couldn’t lose their jobs were Leo and Harris, I would have checked your temperature.
‘Harris is the greatest escapologist since Haughey.’ However, concern is growing within Fine Gael that Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe is evolving into the ‘weak link’ of the State response to the coronavirus crisis.
This has accelerated after his responses to the fiscal implications of the crisis culminating in an online spat with MMA fighter Conor ‘The Notorious’ McGregor.
One minister noted: ‘I have had a series of seething councillors on to me about this. They are going absolutely mad.’
Unease is building over the scale of the Irish response which, when State-backed loans are included, will consist of 0.9% of GDP.
By contrast the UK is poised to spend up to 14.9% whilst IBEC has claimed the German package will be as high as 16.3%.
The outgoing Seanad will be dissolved tonight. A new Taoiseach will be needed to reconvene it before any legislation can be passed.
‘People want Leo to stay. People want a boss’