Fine Gael continues its poll surge with Fianna Fáil 20 points behind

AN Irish Mail on Sunday poll has revealed that in the event of an election being called Fine Gael is on course to secure a massive increase in Dáil seats.

The new poll, carried out by Ireland Thinks, reveals that support for Fine Gael is at 36%, up by an astonishing 15 points since Election 2020.

The opinion poll was conducted between the May 19 and 23 among a nationally representative panel of 1,012 adults online.

The poll also reveals Sinn Féin with 27% has consolidated its General Election vote.

But at 16 % Fianna Fáil has dropped in support by six points since Election 2020.

The figures suggest that the unprecedented coronavirus crisis has proved a boost to the establishment. The 15-point rise in Fine Gael support means the old Civil War parties share 52% of the vote.

One senior political source noted: ‘The key message from this poll is that the voters want stability.

‘They have during this crisis flocked to the Government, which is seen as Fine Gael. It is a classic case study in the virtues of incumbency in a crisis.’

Independents at 6% are the biggest losers in the postelection power-game, down from 15 %.

The Greens continue to lead the battle of the political minnows. The tsunami may be over but at 6% they are just down 1 point from Election 2020. Labour at 4% are unchanged. Fine Gael’s 36% share of the vote represents a high point since the party’s performance in the 2011 election where the party secured 76 of the then 166 seats available. The party won 35 seats in February’s election.

But, ironically, this fillip may increase the instability when it comes to government formation talks with Fianna Fáil and the Greens. The new trend has divided Fine Gael into coalition doves and election hawks, with the latter wanting to take advantage of the current political stasis via a snap postcoronavirus election. One senior party source noted: ‘On those figures, Fine Gael are nailed on to regain every seat we have lost since 2011.’

However, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is believed to take a more circumspect approach than the election hawks to the rising of the FG tide.

Mr Varadkar, one source noted, ‘has been burnt a few times, and it is now a case of not putting your faith in opinion polls’. But they added: ‘He would have a better case had he actually gone to the country when we were high in the polls.’

For Sinn Féin, the Ireland Thinks poll will be seen to represent a case of respectable consolidation in an uncertain electoral environment.

For Fianna Fáil, the poll unveils a more desolate situation. One senior figure noted: ‘It’s very hard to be demanding the Taoiseach’s job when your rival is 20 points above you in the polls. Those in Fine Gael who are planning acts of bad faith have had their cause advanced. For Fianna Fáil the message is they have barely moved a millimetre from the 17% secured in 2011.’

The Green Party also emerges as a winner simply by retaining its election support levels. Intriguingly the poll also showed strong levels of support amongst FF and FG voters for the current most likely coalition option of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens with 80% of FG supporters and 63% of FF supporters favouring the FF/ FG/Green coalition.

The position within Green supporters was more uncertain with support at just 52% of its voters.

Dr Kevin Cunningham of Ireland Thinks said last night of the poll: ‘Fine Gael’s increase tracks the “rally around the flag” effect observed in many European countries where governing parties throughout Europe have seen an increase in their support by an average of approximately 10%.

‘It strengthens their position in government negotiations. The party would arguably benefit from an election, but in the same way that the conclusion of Brexit led to a decline in their fortunes this latest “rally around the flag” will wear off. ’

‘The message is voters want stability’