Commuting post-Covid? Take a hike
Growing concern of gridlock on our roads as many will shun reduced capacity public transport for cars
THERE could be traffic chaos if more people start driving to work rather than walking, cycling or working from home while public transport capacity is capped at 50%, new analysis shows.
Authorities are targeting big increases in the numbers walking and cycling as the country eases the coronavirus restrictions.
Indeed councils around the country are to receive extra funding so footpaths can be widened to allow for social distancing – and to create new cycle lanes to allow commuters get to work safely.
This week outgoing transport minister Shane Ross made the wearing of face coverings on public transport mandatory in order to get rid of the two-metre social distancing rule on public transport – but operators will still only be allowed to carry half as many passengers as usual.
This has led to fears of major transport chaos, as many will seek alternatives to public transport.
In Dublin, authorities are targeting a doubling of walking and a trebling of cycling rates, and have been planning on the basis of a 30% drop in the number of cars on the roads.
However, already this week traffic was back at 75% of prepandemic levels on main routes in the capital even before many more businesses reopen tomorrow.
An analysis by the Irish Mail on Sunday calculated that in one theoretical scenario, in which 90% of people are commuting again but the uptake in walking and cycling are lower than hoped for, there could be a near 20% increase in private cars on the roads around and in the capital – if all those unable to take public transport instead opted to drive.
Fianna Fáil transport spokesman Marc MacSharry said he was concerned about how the 50% capacity on public transport would affect Dublin in particular and that it would be a ‘nightmare’ if more people decided to drive.
‘Even before Covid-19, we had a chronic congestion problem and a chronic capacity problem,’ he said.
‘It’s going to be even more challenging. We’re going to have to have an imaginative and proactive approach taken to incentivise people to walk as much as possible, to cycle as much possible, along with carpooling.
‘We need to see how it goes with masks and 50% capacity [on public transport] and we may also need to look at engaging the private sector to help increase bus capacity, if we’re stuck at 50%. It’s going to be a nightmare if people decide their best option is driving into the city – it’ll be even worse.’
Green Party councillor for Clontarf, Donna Cooney, admitted winter weather was less appealing for cycling and walking, but said: ‘We’re already back to 75% capacity on the streets, it’s already pretty packed out there so we need to seriously look at this now and offer safe routes for cyclists. We need joinedup routes, we need that to work quickly. The commitment is there from the council but after so many years of neglect, it’s a big job.’
She added that parents should be encouraged to walk or cycle to schools where possible, or to park away from the school gates to minimise congestion and pollution.
‘In terms of winter coming, it will be difficult for active transport, but the reality is we don’t have the option,’ she said. ‘Those who can do active transport, to walk or cycle, should so that those who can’t, who absolutely have to drive or take public transport, can do that.’
Professor of economics at DCU’s School of Business Edgar Morgenroth – also the former head of transport and infrastructure research for the ESRI – told the MoS he suspects cycling will increase but that walking won’t.
‘Working from home will increase and the last few months have shown that in many cases it is possible, where previously it might have been thought impossible,’ he said.
‘There will be a group of commuters that will end up commuting by car where they were previously able to use public transport. I doubt it will be a very large number – the car is already the most important mode for commuting journeys.’
Rail Users Ireland spokesman Mark Gleeson said he expected a ‘significant majority’ to remain working from home as many major employers were on board with this.
He said that for many, cycling was impractical because of distance due to suburban sprawl, but that more commuters could cycle rather than drive to rail stations or bus stops, rather than all the way to work, as is common in Holland.
He said ‘demand management’ for already-stretched public transport may be the answer, varying opening hours to spread the load. ‘This was something being considered long before Covid, owing to the lack of capacity,’ he said, adding: ‘Given the lack of road space and parking, it is hard to see any significant increase in car use, combined with the fact many do not own a car.’
A spokesman for the National
Transport Authority (NTA) said increasing the number of buses or trains is not currently possible because ‘just about all… we have are already in service’.
The analysis by the MoS is based on figures from the NTA and Dublin City Council’s annual Canal Cordon Count which counts the number of people and vehicles which cross the two Dublin canals at rush hour.
The most recent data, from 2019, shows: 116,287 people travelled into Dublin city centre on public transport; just under 58,000 arrived by private car; 2,661 got a taxi; 24,691 walked, and 13,131 cycled. The figures were used to inform the city’s Covid Mobility Programme, in which the council and the NTA is widening footpaths and creating temporary protected cycle tracks
‘Winter will make active transport difficult’
with plastic bollards which campaigners hope will become permanent – including one along the River Liffey which mirrors much of the route of the long-delayed Liffey Cycle Route. It is also reducing speed limits and pedestrian wait times at traffic lights.
Analysis of the figures by the MoS found that if 100% of people returned to commuting as normal, and the walking and cycling increases materialise fully, and with public transport full but only able to carry 50% of its usual capacity, there would be an excess of 7,000 people over the usual number of 58,000 motorists with no way of getting to work. If all these people drive, it would represent a 12% increase in normal traffic levels, which could cause chaos on roads.
An increase in the numbers walking to 50,000 and cycling to 40,000 every day is a big component in the mobility plan. If these do not materialise, we could face gridlock, which could only get worse in winter.
In an absolute worst-case scenario, if 100% of people start commuting again, but walkers only increase by 1.5 times and cyclists only double rather than treble, nearly 37,000 people are left with no alternative – resulting in a potentially catastrophic 56% increase in the number of vehicles on the capital’s roads if they all decided to drive.
However, it has been widely predicted that many people will continue to work from home. If only 80% return to commuting, with the cycling and walking targets fully met, there is the potential for a theoretical 62% drop in people forced to drive, meaning driving should fall or at least stay the same. At 90%, this drop in the people with no alternative but to drive is 25%.
AA spokesman Barry Aldworth says it’s ‘important to capitalise’ on the significant increase in pedestrians and cyclists by improving infrastructure for this cohort.