Threats are everywhere for this three-legged coalition
THIS three-legged stool of a government should be the essence of stability, requiring a special, superhuman effort to knock it off its centre of gravity. However, Taoiseach Micheál Martin’s new administration faces internal and external pressures that exclude the possibility of even a honeymoon period, let alone a guaranteed, long run in power.
The biggest internal threat will come from the Greens who, dripping with good intentions and principles, will be looking for early wins, such as a new climate change law to enforce carbon emissions reductions averaging 7% annually.
The Greens’ enigmatic deputy leader Catherine Martin has also been talking about regular reviews of the Progamme for Government to establish whether it’s working as promised. This, in effect, will reduce down to an on-going series of mini-crises as the party struggles with its conscience in a neverending reflection that risks collapsing the Government at every crossroads.
Another internal threat comes from Leo Varadkar and Fine Gael. The latest opinion poll gave a huge 75% satisfaction rating to Mr Varadkar and 37% support to the party – all, no doubt, related to the positive (and entirely undeserved) exposure arising from the coronavirus disaster.
In contrast Fianna Fáil has collapsed to an equally startling 14%, down over 8% from their actual performance in the general election.
If this were to hold, any friction between the parties in government would increase the likelihood of Fine Gael collapsing the scrum and heading for the country.
Externally, the threats are much more real.
This historic coalition needs to show early results in the key ‘Three Hs’ that were front and centre in the February election – housing, homelessness and health. It’ll be interesting to see whether Fine Gael will, on these issues, be driving with the handbrake on, as success for Martin would only serve to highlight Varadkar’s failures.
However, progress won’t be easy because all improvements in housing and health will come at the expense of a rapidly rising national debt.
And then there’s Sinn Féin, now with the role of Opposition all to themselves.
Their support is sticking at about 25%, which puts the lie to all that drivel about how this new coalition flies in the face of the socalled desire for change as expressed in February.
Sinn Féin were never going to be part of a government with either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael and for very good reasons – their historic and current links and support for IRA paramilitarism, tribal bloodletting, the denial of justice on a grand scale and mass murder in the North.
The party is continually moving into the centre of mainstream politics, evidenced this week by their decision to abstain in the Dáil on renewing the Special Criminal Court legislation.
HOWEVER, it’ll take at least another four or five years and very clear water being put between themselves and the Provos before either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael will view them as partners with sufficient security clearance to allow them enter Government Buildings with credibility rather than suspicion. Taoiseach Micheál Martin, Leo Varadkar and Eamon Ryan (or Catherine Martin if she wins the battle for leadership) now face the greatest challenge ever presented to an Irish government. And it’s all financial. The economy is in bits. The deficit this year will be at least €30bn; Covid-19 will act as a drag on business, jobs and innovation until there’s a vaccine. Health and housing are up the swanny both are already seriously ill but now in intensive care as a consequence of the virus - and education, the arts, sport and society generally are all spluttering to start up again, uncertain how to proceed.
What could possibly go wrong as Mr Martin finally achieves his most important political ambition – to become a Fianna Fáil Taoiseach?
The formation of this new Government proves two things.
One – we Irish do forgiveness like no others. Just over nine years after we kicked Fianna Fáil out of office for their reckless mismanagement of our economy, we’re allowing them back in again.
And two – the Greens actually want to share the burden of being in government. For a party with a deserved reputation for pleasantness and not a little virtue signalling, who’d have thought?