Coalition feared mutinous public

Varadkar pushed for departure of Hogan – now Coveney top tip for post

FEARS were growing within the Coalition just prior to Phil Hogan’s resignation that Ireland could become ungovernable if the EU Trade Commissioner did not go.

Fine Gael sources have also claimed that Tánaiste Leo Varadkar played a far more influential role in the departure of Mr Hogan than his nominal boss Micheál Martin.

The claims emerged amid growing sympathy for Mr Hogan over the nature of his departure.

One Minister said: ‘It was the most botched attempted political execution ever. They had one, two, three, four swings of the axe – Martin, Varadkar, Ryan and little Tommy Byrne – and they still only winded him.’

The Commissioner’s defence of his position was seriously undermined by the stated lack of confidence from the government.

One senior Fine Gael source said: ‘It was a unique situation. Never has an Irish government, not even in the era of Pee Flynn and the three houses remark, has a government so emphatically declared a lack of confidence.

‘Hogan is furious, and he is very suspicious,’ they said. ‘At a point of weakness, the government turned on him. He would expect nothing more from Fianna Fáil, he’s not that upset with Martin, he is totally tribal. Eamon Ryan, well Phil may not even know of his existence.’

The Irish Mail on Sunday has learned that the government was ‘genuinely concerned that if Phil did not go, Ireland would become ungovernable’.

One Fine Gael minister warned: ‘Public consent was slipping away, the mood was almost hysterical, we hadn’t seen the like of it since Irish Water.’

‘The great and the good launched a huge private charm offensive on behalf of Hogan,’ senior sources claim.

One source said that by mid-week, the country was ‘heading towards a Dublin-style Bastille Day. It would have become difficult to rule’.

Fine Gael sources also claim the public unease of Mr Varadkar, rather than the Taoiseach, was the key factor in Mr Hogan’s fall.

They said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen ‘barely knows who Micheál Martin is. By contrast Leo Varadkar is part of the same European People’s Party. He would have been the decisive factor in this decision’.

Mr Hogan, they said, ‘may be a Commissioner but Leo is a leader and he is a leader within the EPP family. He automatically carries more weight… even than Micheál.’

In the wake of Mr Hogan’s departure, Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney is the warm favourite to inherit his job.

Mr Coveney will, one minister said: ‘Have the usual dark night of the soul in the Garden of Gethsemane before being persuaded in favour of making the sacrifice in the greater good.’

Another source said: ‘He is not coming in at a great time. We had a fox in the henhouse and now everything is utterly dysfunctional.’

But another minister claimed: ‘Sending Simon to exile in Europe will suit so many people. It certainly suits Micheál and it also tightens Leo’s iron grip on Fine Gael.’

Fianna Fáil has rather half-heartedly attempted to lay claim to the post Mr Hogan is vacating.

But the party was sharply rebuked by Fine Gael with one source saying: ‘Micheál has his work cut out trying to actually appoint an Agriculture Minister who will last longer than next weekend.

‘Let him stick to his own knitting and we will look after ours.’

Though Charlie McConalogue is

‘Concerned we would become ungovernable’

the favourite to take the Agriculture post, another source said: ‘Micheál will have to console plenty of Juniors like Thomas Byrne and Anne Rabbitte. The fact that no one knows who Charlie is after a decade in national politics is disturbing.’

Mr Coveney’s reticence about sending out a clear signal of intent on the EU Commission post may have been influenced by uncertainty over Mr Varadkar’s real intentions. One supporter of Mr Hogan noted: ‘Phil learned the hard way that Leo doesn’t have friends, he has interests. Simon would want to be careful he doesn’t experience a similar fate.

‘There is a belief that Leo is still lurking around the Commissioner’s job. In a government permanently on the brink of collapse the Commissioner’s job is a very attractive one and Leo took the legs out from under Phil.’

One senior Fine Gael figure warned: ‘A certain Tánaiste’s feet are itchy. There is no happy ending with this government. There is no way that it will do five years.

‘The joys of being Tánaiste have run very thin, very fast. He misses the great stage. Some people are not natural deputies. He would, of course, leave with a heavy heart, but for the sake of Ireland he’d take the same road as the wild geese.’

In an indication of uncertainty about their leader’s intentions the claims were dismissed by another

Fine Gael senior figure who said: ‘There is no way; it would be a serious reduction in status. He goes from being a leader and future PM to being a mere functionary.’

Leo, they said: ‘Would have a lot less clout as a mere Commissioner, he would be far less attractive for the jobs market.’