Parties will have a job agreeing on replacement for Big Phil in EU
IF THE Government thought sacking Phil Hogan was difficult, they should wait until it comes to choosing his replacement.
The coalition of chaos has to negotiate the complex politics of inter-party rivalry, gender, ambitious mandarins and a public whose appetite for heads does not appear to have been assuaged by the political execution of Phil Hogan. So, who are the political runners and riders for the most lucrative job in Irish politics? Here is the pin-stickers’ guide to the contenders.
THE POLITICIANS
It is a measure of the deterioration of Fianna Fáil that it has no substantial contender for the post. And were Martin to find one, he will be told sharply that it is still a Fine Gael choice.
SIMON COVENEY – ‘MR SAFE’
He has the ego and the connections for it. He’s clued into Brexit and has experience in Europe but he is no Phil Hogan. If he goes to Europe, his chance of ever leading Fine Gael is gone – but maybe it was never there. He is an utterly safe pair of hands.
LEO VARADKAR – THE WILDCARD
Busy playing harder to get than a contemplative nun – which leaves suspicious observers thinking he is interested. His disappearance would solve a lot of problems for Martin, who is rapidly tiring of his far too-smart apprentice. Leo too must be wondering if being Tánaiste in a coalition of chaos is that attractive.
EOGHAN MURPHY – MR INVISIBLE
At a time when ‘Murph’ was still one of Leo’s team, he would have been a contender and he could have fared better in Europe. He has been Mr Invisible since the election, which hasn’t done his profile any harm.
In better times, he would have been packed away to Europe, but Fianna Fáil resistance alone means the ongoing lack of rewards for those who secured Leo the leadership prize will continue.
ALTERNATIVELY... HELEN MCENTEE – A SWEET SURPRISE
The need for ‘the lads’ to listen and comply with EU requests for a gender-balanced team means Ms McEntee may surprise. As a candidate, she has more ministerial experience than
Hogan has and is familiar with Europe. Her selection would certainly be a sweet surprise for Regina Doherty who is also being mentioned in despatches.
LADIES FIRST – THE GENDER FACTOR
Subtle signals have been coming from the EU that a satisfactory female candidate would be more acceptable than the offer a year ago of ‘Phil, and that’s your lot’. Fine Gael aren’t short of
respectable candidates while Fianna Fáil’s hands are empty.
MAIREAD MCGUINNESS – THE INSIDER
She is a two-term vice president of the European Parliament who appears to be far more popular abroad than at home. Unlikely to get the golden ticket of Trade but could, in any reshuffle, secure a reasonably high-profile portfolio.
FRANCES FITZGERALD – FIRE-BLANKET
Seen as the ultimate safe pair of hands crossed with a wet blanket until she was destabilised by the tumult surrounding Maurice McCabe. She would not be a contender for Trade but could fare well in any realignment and would certainly calm the horses.
LUCINDA CREIGHTON – THE COMEBACK QUEEN
A somewhat exotic choice, but technically well qualified.
Lucinda, of course, has been a bad girl in relation to party politics but scores heavily on experience and gender, less well on the so-called ‘progressive’ front.
MANDARINS’ REVENGE
The Taoiseach’s obsessive desire for political respectability means the good old days where Europe was the elephants’ graveyard for political difficulties means that this could be the year of the mandarin. The contenders include:
CATHERINE DAY – THE CAREER EUROPEAN
Day possesses the triple entente of not being a politician, being a technocrat and fulfilling the gender criteria. Her experience in running the EU Trade Directorate would be an advantage but she is unlikely to be a fan of putting on the green jersey.
DAVID O’SULLIVAN – THE MANDARIN
Another mandarin who may suffer from being retired but his status as a former secretarygeneral to the Commission might over-ride this. Would more than erase the concept of Europe from the public mindset.
BOBBY MCDONAGH – THE DIPLOMAT
A career diplomat who, like most diplomats, is not short in the selfregard department. Educated in Gonzaga and Oxford he is seen as being an expert in EU affairs.
He spent more than two decades in the EU corridors and, usefully, was ambassador to the UK.
INTRIGUING OUTSIDERS
EMILY O’REILLY – THE WATCHDOG
Until now she has settled for a career as a permanent ombudsperson. She has no shortage of European experience, and would restore our EU reputation on the ethics front.
RICHARD BRUTON – THE BRAIN
Bruton is available to serve, sources close to the Fine Gael party chairman have been anxiously claiming. He is also sufficiently apolitical to be acceptable to Fianna Fáil.
He’d probably be the cleverest man on the Commission but is unlikely to have the heft to secure a major position.
ANDREW MCDOWELL – THE BANKER
A director of the European Investment Bank the former Fine Gael economic adviser would not be intellectually challenged by a Commissioner’s post but would fatally lack Phil’s winking and nodding skills.
EXOTIC OPTIONS BUT LIKELY NON-RUNNERS
ENDA KENNY
Certainly has not lost his political antennae but has settled far too comfortably into retirement.
BERTIE AHERN
Would snap it in a heartbeat and would be the best candidate. Unfortunately, the tribunal means he is persona non grata.
JOHN BRUTON
Cited in certain quarters, but chances best summarised by one senior FG comment of ‘are you having a laugh?’