Now the Brexit trauma truly begins - as I warned it would

THE Brexit disaster was always going to come down to Northern Ireland. Tragically, as we’re well aware, that’s where the fault line has always been. Because Northern Ireland forms part of the United Kingdom and the UK has decided to pull its pegs and go, it was always a self-deluding fantasy to believe that a ‘hard border’ in Ireland could, in the absence of the most extraordinary political and constitutional compromise, be avoided.

There are only two ways to prevent a return to the hard border: one is that Ireland would follow the UK lead and exit the EU with them hand in hand – or two, that Northern Ireland would in substance remain within the EU regulatory zone and that a customs border would be created in the Irish Sea separating the North from the rest of the UK.

With zero possibility of Ireland leaving, the focus was always on the North continuing to play by EU rules. Former British premier Theresa May knew that and so she struck the so-called backstop deal with the EU in 2018 to keep all the UK in the EU customs union in the event of trade talks failing, therefore ensuring no need for customs checks along the border.

That’s when Boris Johnson made his move and after becoming prime minister he forced the EU to accept a watered-down Irish backstop last October. It was perfectly clear at the time that it was nothing more than a bare-faced political fudge and a considerable victory for Mr Johnson.

It meant that the UK, including the North, would be outside the customs union – but, rather than having checks along the Irish border, these would be conducted at ‘points of entry’ to the North. In practice, this meant a customs border on the Irish Sea – with the North cut off from the rest of the UK.

Johnson’s decision this week to break international law, rip up his own deal with the EU and toss a hand grenade into Michel Barnier’s lap as the EU/UK trade talks were entering a critical phase was entirely predictable. Boris operates under the doctrine of disruption, like US president Donald Trump – all the more so when distraction is called for and scapegoats are required.

The Guardian reported at the end of August how Mr Johnson was facing the wrath of what were described as ‘furious’ Tory MPs over his chaotic handling of the Covid-19 disaster which has already claimed almost 42,000 lives (his government reckoned 20,000 deaths would be a good result back in April).

The British economy went into freefall, with GDP down over 20%, because of the virus. That compared

to just over 2% decline during the 2008 recession.

BUT worst of all, an opinion poll showed that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party was now levelpegging with the Conservatives, just over eight months after Johnson’s stunning general election landslide. True to form, Prime Minister Johnson is now playing an extremely high-stakes game with the sole intention of saving his own political skin.

UK exports to Ireland earned €41.5bn last year while Ireland’s trade in the other direction was worth €26.5bn – an enormous surplus of €15bn in the UK’s favour. However, these figures are tiny compared to Britain’s trade with the EU.

The UK makes €325bn from exports to the EU and imports a staggering €402bn from Europe.

Despite all that, Johnson is playing

disruptor in order to provide the British, who are already facing into the most dangerous financial white rapids, with a scapegoat.

He wants the EU to break off trade talks so that he, in turn, can point the finger of blame towards Britain’s traditional hate figures in Brussels.

The UK crashing out of the EU without a trade deal could cost us 40,000 jobs – plus customs barriers along the border, with all the dreadful security, community and political implications likely to flow from that.

It was always going to come down to Northern Ireland.

After last October’s make-believe deal it was clear that the border issue still hadn’t really gone away, and that the ambitions of Boris’s Withdrawal Agreement Mark II were unachievable. I warned: ‘We need to fasten our safety belts. This Brexit trauma hasn’t even begun in earnest.’

It has now.