We have a friend once more in Washington
WHEN Joe Biden takes the oath of office on January 20, 2021, he will become just the second Catholic to become president of the United States of America. Nearly six decades after his death, the first, John F Kennedy still holds a powerful place in the hearts of most Irish people.
The chances of Mr Biden having a similar impact on Irish hearts and minds in the years and decades ahead are slim. He is the oldest person ever elected president. Mr Kennedy was the youngest. And today’s postCatholic Ireland is almost the polar opposite of the Ireland Mr
Kennedy visited in 1963. That Ireland was conservative and insular. Today’s is liberal and outward-looking.
When it comes to Ireland, the Kennedy myth is one that will never fade. But the Biden reality is likely to impinge on Irish lives over the next four years. As Taoiseach Micheál Martin said in congratulating the president-elect, Mr Biden has been a stalwart friend and supporter of Ireland and the prosperity, stability and opportunity made possible by the Good Friday Agreement to which he has pledged his ongoing steadfast support.
In the still perilously uncertain world of Brexit this pledge matters. In the world of foreign affairs, the removal of the United States from multilateral agreements was the hallmark of Donald Trump’s presidency. Mr Biden’s instinct will be to bring America back to various multilateral tables to provide world leadership.
The epitome of the America First nationalism of Trump’s White House was its attitude to the impact of Brexit on Ireland. It cared not one jot. Mr Biden’s White House will be different. If nothing else, having somebody in the
White House who at least understands the issues around Brexit and its impact on Ireland will make a difference.
This week, Irish media organisations were treated to some very useful insights into the American electoral process and the Trump White House by his former chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney. After stepping down from the chaos of that position in March 2020, Mr Mulvaney was named special envoy for the North in May. It’s not clear what he’s done for the six months he’s held the post but that it had been vacant since Donald Trump became president tells its own story.
A renewed interest in the unique problems faced by both parts of Ireland in the wake of Brexit is likely to be the immediate impact of a Biden presidency. There wasn’t much point in having a special envoy for Northern Ireland if the president and the State Department didn’t much care for what that envoy was doing.
It is no cliché to say Mr Biden cherishes his Irish roots and cares about our island. We can expect a new envoy and a renewed interest in the Irish question as it relates to Brexit. There will be no chance of an American-British trade deal if the Good Friday Agreement is undermined and unless the hard border question is answered satisfactorily to the new administration’s liking.
BOTH Mr Biden and Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House of Representatives, have long been on the record about this. Moreover, the no-deal Brexit that Boris Johnson has continuously threatened will not be replaced by an AmericanBritish deal.
There have been some concerns that Mr Biden will increase taxation on the profits of US firms operating in Ireland. This has been a perennial issue in American politics dating back to the 1980s.
Since Ronald Reagan, every single American president, both Democrat and Republican, has made noises about bringing American corporations home.
That is not going to happen under a Biden presidency but there will be increased pressure on ensuring that these giant corporations contribute more to the American economy. Given the still-enormous reliance on American foreign direct investment into Ireland, that is something that will preoccupy policy-makers in the years ahead.
One thing that won’t change under a Biden presidency is the levels of access successive Irish governments and diplomats have to the corridors of power in Washington. While Irish people might feel a greater affiliation to the Democratic party, the reality is that recent Republican presidents such as George W Bush and Mr Trump have allowed as much access as Irish representatives have needed at the White House.
When Mr Martin delivers the traditional bowl of shamrock to President Biden in March at the White House the difference will be that he will doing so to a president who cares.