1,000 cases a day inevitable in January

IRELAND will ‘inevitably’ hit 1,000 Covid-19 cases a day by early January even if restrictions on hospitality are made before New Years Eve, according to data analyst David Higgins.

The Cabinet is expected to confirm on Tuesday, that restrictions will be brought in after Christmas to curb the rise in cases.

Based on the model projections used as we emerged from the most recent set of restrictions, the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) said our case numbers are tracking ahead of our worst-case scenario, and the reproduction rate of the disease is now between 1.1 and 1.3.

NPHET also said we are ‘at high risk’ of reaching 1,200 cases per day in the second week of January on this trajectory.

Speaking with the MoS, Mr Higgins, a data analyst at Carraighill financial services said: ‘I said two weeks ago that I think we’d end up over 1,000 cases by the middle of January. But I think, given how the rate of increase looks like the numbers are a little higher now, I’d say it will probably hit over 1,000 cases in early January.

‘It’s inevitable. There may be some slowing of it, because people now know that the virus is out there again. Maybe that will cause people to be a little more cautious. But given that you still have indoor dining open, retail is quite busy at this time, household visits are now permitted, this will inevitably bring in 1,000-plus cases.’

Mr Higgins suggested that going to Level 4 for a three- or four-week period could get us to Level 3 numbers before initiating Level 2 by the second quarter of next year. He said we will see the last of heavy restrictions in January and February as the vaccine rollout will also have an impact on hospitalisations.