McIlroy still has major problems
US Open a long shot for ex-winner Rory
WHEN Torrey Pines last staged the US Open golf championship in 2008, a curly-haired teenager with chubby cheeks had just rocked up on the European Tour. In the first week of June, Rory McIlroy tied 39th at the Wales Open alongside his big buddy, Graeme McDowell. Neither was eligible to tee up in San Diego against Tiger Woods and Co that month, but that soon changed.
At the 2010 US Open, McDowell was last man standing at Pebble Beach, while a year later McIlroy blitzed all-comers at Congressional with an astonishing 16-under-par tour de force, winning by eight shots.
For the 121st US Open this week, McIlroy remains a headline act in world golf, even if he’s yet to add a second US Open title to his career resume. In contrast, McDowell has his nose pressed against the window.
His 10-year US Open exemption ended at Bethpage last year when he missed the cut and he failed to come through the qualifiers.
Curiously, had McDowell won either the Masters or the US PGA, he’d have had a lifetime exemption, while all Open winners can play until they’re 60. Therein lies the breaks.
The two ‘Macs’ may not be as close personally as before, while their career graphs, once in alignment, have headed in contrasting directions.
In May 2011, McDowell was fourth in the world rankings, with McIlroy fifth. Their positions flipped after the PGA Championship in Wentworth and the gap has steadily widened since. At the start of 2021, McDowell was 80th; he’s now 154th and is desperate to stall the slide.
Not 42 until next month, G-Mac is by no means akin to a veteran on Tour and can take encouragement from Major triumphs in the past decade of Darren Clarke (42), Ernie Els (42), Henrik Stenson (40), Woods (43) and Phil Mickelson (43 and 50).
World No. 10 McIlroy, a decade younger than McDowell, will certainly expect to have added to his Major tally before he turns 40. Then again, he expected to add to it before hitting 30, and it didn’t happen.
Of the first 25 Majors he contested, McIlroy won four. Of the 24 since then, he’s won none. Might his 50th Major coincide with an end to his drought? Possibly.
First up, McIlroy has got solid form at Torrey Pines, with a third and a fifth-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open in 2019 and 2020 respectively.
In January of this year, when he found himself in a rumble over taking a free drop from an embedded lie – TV replays indicated his ball hadn’t plugged – he tied 21st behind Patrick Reed.
But Torrey Pines in chilly, misty, mid-winter is a different animal compared to high summer.
Balls won’t be plugging this week; they’ll be bouncing off bone-hard fairways and disappearing into barbed-wire rough.
The greens will be slicker than the top of Stewart Cink’s head and any faultlines will be exposed.
And therein lies the McIlroy conundrum. He’s a work in progress under the eye of coach Peter Cowen and putting guru Brad Faxon. And he’s not where he wants to be, just yet.
While he won the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow, he didn’t contend at either the US PGA or the Memorial Tournament, compiling eight rounds of 71 or higher.
The PGA Tour stats are telling. While McIlroy is ranked 10th in strokes gained off the tee, he’s only just inside the top 100 for strokes gained around the green and is 68th in putting. Unless those numbers
‘MCDOWELL’S TEN-YEAR EXEMPTION AT THE US OPEN HAS ENDED’
improve, he’s unlikely to regain his position as a serial Major winner and the No 1 draw in the sport.
In terms of form, Shane Lowry, Ireland’s only other representative at Torrey Pines, is trending the right way, with four top tens at The Players (eighth), RBC Heritage (ninth),
US PGA (fourth) and, most recently, the Memorial (sixth). He also threw in a tied 21st at the Masters.
Lowry, who tied seventh at Torrey Pines in the 2015 ‘Farmers’, appears to have resolved the putting issues which were holding him back. At 50/1, he represents better value than
McIlroy (14/1) to shuffle into the San Diego shake-up come Sunday.
Deep down, this is the Major you suspect the Open champ wants to win next more than any other after the pain of Oakmont in 2016, where he blew a four-shot lead after 54 holes.
With Woods injured, the pre-Open hoopla will be all about Phil Mickeson, darling of the public and media, after he rewrote the history books at the US PGA last month.
Can Lefty, a six-time US Open runner-up, complete the career Grand Slam in the week he turns 51?
It’s a huge task to go back-to-back in Majors – Padraig Harrington famously achieved it in 2008 – and his odds of 50/1 bely the fact he’s won three times at Torrey Pines on the PGA Tour.
While the occasional plotter, like McDowell at Pebble Beach, finds a way to avoid the boody traps, mostly the US Open plays into the big-hitters who are on a good putting week.
The last five Opens were won by players of that profile – Dustin Johnson (2016), Brooks Koepka (2017, ‘18), Gary Woodland (2019) and Bryson DeChambeau (2020).
‘The Mad Scientist’ bombed and gouged his way to a six-shot victory at Winged Foot last year, the only player to finish under par.
A similar strategy backfired this year at Augusta and Kiawah Island where subtlety, placement and a lower ball flight were required.
At 7,800 yards, Torrey Pines plays to his strengths as he seeks to follow Koepka, Curtis Strange, Ben Hogan and Bobby Jones as US Open champions who successfully defended their crown.