Spooked FG change tack to go after Ivana
Major shake-up in Dublin Bay South
LABOUR Senator Ivana Bacik is being targeted by an unlikely union of Fine Gael and Sinn Féin as the battle for Dublin Bay South enters the final week of the intensely fought by-election campaign.
In a major strategic shift, Fine Gael, still the official front runner, has turned its guns from Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan to Ms Bacik amid growing concerns the Labour candidate represents a ‘safer’ protest vote in the constituency.
One senior Fine Gael source told the Irish Mail on Sunday: ‘If it is between FG and Sinn Féin in the last count we will win. Ivana is more problematic.’
Despite its aspirations for a broad coalition of the left, Sinn Féin has urged supporters to leave Labour out of the mix and instead transfer their votes to People Before Profit and the Social Democrats.
Concern is also rife within Fine Gael that the party’s chances have been impaired by the debacle over the stalled full reopening of the hospitality sector as rising Delta variant cases threaten a fourth Covid wave.
One minister told the MoS: ‘We are not getting a huge amount of blowback, but it certainly scuppered the great plan that we would hold the election against the backdrop of reopening. It would have been like an election after winning the World Cup: everyone would be out, or rather inside, drinking pints and celebrating.’
Another, more pessimistic, party source said: ‘The people are up in arms. Imprecations and threats, accusations of cowardice. Not exactly the build-up you’d want. This is not just another by-election. This is one they are really trying to win.’
Fine Gael had identified Sinn Féin’s Boylan as the biggest threat to its candidate James Geoghegan’s bid to retain the seat left vacant by the departure of the party’s former housing minister Eoghan Murphy.
But this all changed with the publication of an Irish Times/Ipsos
MRBI poll this week which showed the transfer-friendly Ms Bacik just five points behind Mr Geoghegan, who polled 27% of first preferences in the survey. The poll put Ms Boylan in third place on 13%.
Amid the growing uncertainty, sources said Fine Gael has ‘returned to basics’ and now plans to retain the seat by sheer force of numbers.
A party source told the MoS: ‘From now [this is] a ground war. We’re going to flood the constituency. We’re bringing back TDs and senators from the political boneyard to boost the campaign.
‘This is our turf – we will be going hand-to-hand for the last week.’
One party analyst said that, based on current figures, ‘we win four out of five times’. They added: ‘Everything has to go right for Ivana.’
The party’s strategy is closely informed by the loss of the 2019 Dublin Mid-West by-election, where Sinn Féin broke the mould by win
ning with just 24% of the vote.
The party had planned a final attack this week pitching the Fine Gael versus Sinn Féin angle, but one source noted: ‘The new theme will be “don’t let Ivana let Sinn Féin in by the backdoor”. Second is great for Labour, but it’s no good for us.’
However, Labour is increasingly confident of securing a win which would be entirely against the national trend.
One party source told the MoS: ‘Fine Gael have had to change their narrative mid-campaign from “stop Sinn Féin” to “stop Ivana”. Voters are asking them, “well, which one is it?” Confused voters are never a good sign.’
Another Labour strategist noted: ‘Geoghegan is lower than the polls suggest and Boylan is higher. Fianna Fáil is simply fearful that they are the new Labour Party. They are terrified of becoming detached from the herd, or the big two of Fine Gael and Sinn Féin at least.’