Leinster House Snakes and Ladders

POLITICS is a game of snakes and ladders. Sadly, in Leinster House there tends to be more snakes, both for the wary and unwary.

Upwardly-mobile ladders are few and far between – but remain all the more valuable because of that.

This is especially the case in a tripartite Government where the three party leaders are in greater danger from those behind them, rather than those in front of them.

2022 is the most dangerous of years; the mid-point of Government where the disaffected have to take out their enemies or forever stay in their inferior place. And in the case of this rather odd political concoction, it’s also the year when the changing of the political baton takes place and Leo Varadkar reoccupies the role of Taoiseach as Micheál Martin rotates out of the top job.

So who are the political Galacticos on the way up, who is trying to avoid the long slide and who – most agonisingly of all – is poised between the ladder and the snake wondering will they end up in political heaven or political hell?

UP THE LADDER 1 Leo Varadkar A king in waiting but these rungs are slippery

TECHNICALLY Leo, as he waits to resume his rightful place as Taoiseach, is on the stairway to political heaven but his ladder appears to have a few bockety steps. The Fine Gael leader has not had a good year and support for his party – and his popularity – slumped in successive Ireland Thinks-Irish Mail on Sunday polls in 2021.

Leo is also dogged by the ongoing Garda investigation into his leaking of a document to his friend Dr Maitiú Ó Tuathail, which has not reached a conclusion a year after it started. So, careful as you go Leo, those steps are rather slippery and it’s a way to go to reach the top again.

2 Heather Humphreys More of a Jim Hacker than an Angela Merkel

COULD she? Might she? Increasingly the whispers are that the Social Protection Minister might consider a run for party leader when the chance next arises. It helps, in this regard, that in an increasingly disengaged Government, Heather appears to be one of the few ministers retaining a tenuous connection to reality.

Her burgeoning supporters talk about Heather being Fine Gael’s Angela Merkel. In truth, should a great derailment occur, Heather is more of a Jim Hacker (of Yes, Minister fame).

If Leo stays and Paschal Donohoe pulls off a great escape to Europe, Heather can, at least, cast a hopeful eye on the Finance brief.

3 Helen McEntee The rise and rise of the Cabinet’s quiet woman

NEXT year is set to be a defining one for Helen of Trim. The Quiet Woman of Cabinet has thrived almost by default. So little is known of her that she can be all things to all wings of the increasingly uneasy party.

But that may be a luxury that is about to end, because if the split grows in Fine Gael she may become the Trojan horse of one section of the growing opposition to Leo. The WAGS (Wise Auld Gentlemen Soldiers) have certainly adopted her. And that could spell trouble for other leadership favourites such as Simon Harris.

4 Eoin Ó Broin The acceptable face of policy wonks (and Sinn Féin)

THE position of Mary Lou is absolute. But when it comes to the Sinn Féin power game, many political barons are competing for a place at the leader’s right hand.

Critically, in this regard, Sinn Féin has taken a key lead, amongst the public at least, in the crucial area of housing.

This is the Gordian knot that makes and breaks politicians and governments over the past decade. Just ask Eoghan Murphy.

Ó Broin’s status as the nearest thing Irish politics has to a public intellectual means 2022 may be the year that sees him break clear of the pack behind Mary Lou as the most significant voice of Sinn Féin. Not a bad place to be in these days.

ON THE BOARD 5 Simon Harris If Leo stays, what then?

IF a terribly big accident happens to Leo, the Higher Education Minister would certainly be the bookies’ favourite for the Taoiseach’s office.

But if Micheál claws his way into the Tánaiste’s office next year,

Simon could face an interesting time in the ensuing reshuffle.

Micheál, it is believed, covets a stint in Higher Education. And if Micheál gets what he wants, what is left for Simon should Leo still be there?

6 Mary Lou A time to sow, a time to reap. But time waits for no party

MARY Lou McDonald will be very aware of the warning in Ecclesiastes 3:1-8: ‘For everything there is a season… A time to plant and a time to harvest.’

Well, Mary Lou has done the planting bit. Now she’d like to harvest – the sooner the better.

The concern for Sinn Féin is that the longer they are in opposition, the more their policies will be scrutinised. Surges or tsunamis, as the Greens and Labour before them know all too well, can recede.

DOWN THE SNAKE 7 Micheál Martin With vipers snapping below, is his snake-charming at an end?

THE political dice has landed the Taoiseach on a snake of his own design. No one should underestimate the capacity of the last escapee from the Bertie era for political escapology. But a lot of snapping teeth are gathering beneath the Taoiseach’s quivering posterior. If he insists on staying around as Fianna Fáil’s leader and Tánaiste after he moves aside for Leo, it may take an act of Houdini proportions to keep rivals such as Barry Cowen and Jim O’Callaghan at bay.

8 Norma Foley Too close to Mr Martin

NORMA is one of the two allegedly weak links in the Cabinet. Be it fair or not, the Education Minister’s fate is nailed to the fortunes of Micheál Martin.

Should the Fianna Fáil starship acquire a new captain, friends will have to be rewarded. And space is limited. Could Norma suffer a similar fate to Dermot Ahern many years ago who, on asking Albert Reynolds why he was being sacked, was simply told: ‘You backed the wrong side.’

It may not be fair on a first-time minister, but when has politics ever been fair?

9 Stephen Donnelly His master’s voice

DONNELLY is perceived as being the leader’s catspaw in health. The talk is that while ‘Steve’ is nominally the boss, there is a big Cork cuckoo (Micheál) running the department.

If that career does come to an end, someone out of the ‘Big Jim’ O’Callaghan and the Country and Western Alliance or the rising coalition of Michael McGrath and Darragh O’Brien will likely throw him to Eamon Ryan’s wolves. If it doesn’t happen, Steve may just see out the five years.

10 Simon Coveney Has the good ship Coveney been holed beyond repair?

IT’S safe to say that Coveney has endured the worst year of his career in politics, courtesy of the Katherine Zappone comic tragedy and the resulting furore. The Foreign Minister’s current woes with the ‘Women of Honour’ indicate that, like the French Bourbon monarchs, the aristocratic Simon has a capacity to forget nothing and learn nothing.

More are wondering if the good ship – or yacht – Coveney is sinking. Butter fingers are not conducive to keeping a solid grip on the ladder.