PARTY’S KEY CONSTITUENCIES AND THE TDS THAT ARE IN TROUBLE
FINE GAEL might be enjoying its 11th year in Government but like a war victim, the party still experiences occasional flashbacks to the trauma of the great meltdown under Michael Noonan in 2002 when – with 22.5% and 31 seats – the party fell from mid-table mediocrity into the relegation zone.
The hope in Fine Gael was that the addition of Leo’s urban chic would, when added to a rural tail, reclaim the 26 seats lost by Enda Kenny in 2016.
In Leo’s first big election, Fine Gael, with 20.9%, lost 15 more seats and even in the glow of post Covid VE day, its support is continuing to dwindle. Nothing can avoid the blunt truth that, in politics, seats follow the votes and if
Fine Gael is left stranded on 21% where will its seats come from?
There will be no transfers available from Sinn Féin or the variegated left, while Fianna Fáil will be involved in its own existential battle for survival. And there will no Green transfers in the event of a disorderly Government collapse.
The margins in Irish elections can be very fine and, like bankruptcy starting slow and ending fast, if you stay dithering at around 20%, seats start dropping off very quickly indeed.
DOWNSIZING IN DUBLIN
EVEN at 20%, Fine Gael will survive in Dublin.
It should retain its seats in Dublin Bay North, Fingal, Dublin Mid-West, Dublin Rathdown, Dublin South Central, Dublin South-West, Dublin West and Dún Laoghaire. And it may even, when it comes to the Holmesand-Moriarty-style struggle of former TD Noel Rock Vs Paul McAuliffe of Fianna Fáil, gain a seat in Dublin North-West. In Dublin Bay South, James ‘Fredo’ Geoghegan will face an existential battle with ‘Big Jim’ O’Callaghan. Either or both might win if Eamon Ryan weakens.
DUBLIN CENTRAL
TD IN TROUBLE: PASCAL DONOHOE With or without Paschal, right, Fine Gael will be in trouble. Little of Mary Lou’s expected three quotas will be available if he runs.
DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL
NO FG TD: NO CHANGE
The absence of Catherine Byrne and Aengus Ó Snodaigh’s two quotas means that unless Leo switches constituencies, there will be no Fine Gael return.
LOST IN LEINSTER
FINE GAEL might also survive in those commuter constituencies bordering the capital such as Meath East, Meath West, one of the Kildare constituencies – probably Kildare South – and Wicklow. But, aside from a final stronghold in LongfordWestmeath, the party is in trouble in every other rural constituency in the province.
CARLOW-KILKENNY TD IN TROUBLE: JOHN PAUL PHELAN
In meltdown, no one is safe. And if things go wrong an increasingly disillusioned John Paul Phelan could find himself scrabbling with Green rival Malcolm Noonan for the final seat as Sinn Féin becomes the new lord of this traditionally conservative constituency.
KILDARE NORTH TD IN TROUBLE: BERNARD DURKAN
In a Lotto trouble despite his recent publicity bonanza. The great survivor escaped the beheading of the Fine Gael chiefs in 2002, but after six decades in public life, Durkan might find himself fighting on two fronts via rural dissent and a somewhat dated profile for North Kildare liberals.
LAOIS OFFALY TD IN TROUBLE: CHARLIE FLANAGAN
If Charlie Flanagan runs and Laois Offaly continues to be a five-seater, Fine Gael will retain a seat. He might be
persuaded to stay if Leo acknowledges that swopping him for Coveney was a very bad idea. If not, someone – most likely Sinn Féin – is poised to make hay at Fine Gael’s expense.
LOUTH
TD IN TROUBLE: FERGUS O’DOWD
O’Dowd is hard-working and tough but should he run, he is in that dangerous space of having had a lot of runs on the merrygo-round. And John McGahon won’t save the Fine Gael seat in a meltdown.
WEXFORD
TD IN TROUBLE: PAUL KEHOE The performance of Fine Gael in Wexford is starting to resemble one of those Russian Babushka dolls: Once they contended for three, now it’s down to Paul Kehoe who might yet miss Michael D’Arcy… or more accurately D’Arcy’s transfers.
MURDER IN MUNSTER
THE astonishing scenario where there is not a single Fine Gael TD indicates how things have changed for the party in Munster. A Sinn Féin tide and a Fine Gael slide means few, with the ironic exception of Simon Coveney and Patrick O’Donovan, are safe.
CLARE
TD IN TROUBLE: JOE CAREY
Long-term dynast Joe Carey, elected without reaching the quota the last time, will be looking over his shoulder. In a mercurial constituency that
elected Violet-Anne Wynne out of nowhere, Joe’s problem might be he won’t know where to look.
CORK EAST TD IN TROUBLE: DAVID STANTON
Fine Gael has been on the decline for some time in this constituency. David Stanton, right, the 25-year lifer, survived narrowly in 2020 by little more than 1,000 votes. There is scant room for error.
CORK NORTH CENTRAL
TD IN TROUBLE: COLM BURKE
After four decades of trying, having first run in 1982, Colm Burke finally made it to the Dáil in 2020. Diligent but innocuous, he is likely to be on the Seanad trail tout de suite when the next election is called.
CORK NORTH-WEST
TD IN TROUBLE/GOING:
MICHAEL CREED
It has been noted Creed is paying very keen attention to European
affairs. Should he be persuaded to make the sacrifice this – allied to the arrival of Liadh ní Riada – might enable Fianna Fáil to secure the miracle of retaining the two Moynihans at the expense of Fine Gael.
CORK SOUTH-WEST NO FINE GAEL TD: NO CHANGE
If the tide is against you, there are no gains. Shocking it may be that in Michael Collins Land there is no Fine Gael TD, but that is likely to remain the case if current poll figures translate into votes.
KERRY
TD IN TROUBLE: BRENDAN GRIFFIN Fine Gael barely polled over a quota in 2020. Any slide from that means Griffin could find himself fighting tooth and claw with Danny
Healy-Rae for the last seat.
LIMERICK CITY
TD IN TROUBLE: KIERAN O’DONNELL
Veteran O’Donnell has rarely been a prolific vote-getter. Likely to be hounded by on two fronts by the Social Democrats and Sinn Féin.
TIPPERARY
NO FINE GAEL TD: NO CHANGE
The rise of Sinn Féin means the amiable but ineffectual Garret Ahearn will stay put in the Seanad. Mattie McGrath will survive just about and keep Fine Gael out.
WATERFORD
NO FINE GAEL TD: NO CHANGE
Sinn Féin’s surge in popularity means any designs Fine Gael has on the loose Green Party seat here are going to be stymied.
CHASED OUT OF CONNACHT-ULSTER
THE party will retain single seats in Mayo (down one) Galway West (barely) and Cavan-Monaghan. That, however, is likely to be as good as it gets.
DONEGAL TD IN TROUBLE: JOE MCHUGH
As Joe McHugh fights on two fronts against a surging Sinn Féin and angry mica insurgency, his political future in a constituency traditionally hostile to Fine Gael is very brittle indeed.
GALWAY EAST
TD IN TROUBLE:
CIARAN CANNON Fine Gael’s vote, in tandem with that of Fianna Fáil, has been in sustained decline. Cannon, right, narrowly saw off Sinn Féin last time round. Any further decline might finally see off the invisible Cannon.
SLIGO-LEITRIM
TD IN TROUBLE: FRANK FEIGHAN
Feighan has not, much to the surprise of his peers, lost an election yet. He slinked in on the 15th count in 2020. Even with Fianna Fáil in disarray, he cannot afford any lost altitude.
ROSCOMMON-GALWAY
NO FG TD: NO CHANGE
Inked in as a key target, the constituency currently does not have a Fine Gael TD. With two big independents in Michael Fitzmaurice and Denis Naughten, and rising new Sinn Féin star Claire Kerrane in
situ, that’s not going to change.
OVERVIEW
IN Fine Gael’s last meltdown the party was beheaded in Dublin. But this time around it appears to be drowning in rural Ireland. If it doesn’t reverse the rot it will become an urban head without a rural tail.