Will Russia launch a cyber war?
If Putin invades Ukraine, the inevitable sanctions could trigger ‘unimaginable’ f inancial turmoil across the Eurozone
Unimaginable’ financialchaoscouldensueacrossEuropeifRussiainvadesUkraine,anIrish-basedexperthaswarned. This is because thecrushing economicsanctionsagainstRussia thatwould inevitably follow any invasioncould trigger a retaliatory covertcyberwar. Earlier this year , multiple Ukrainianwebsites were hit by acybers trike that left a warning to ‘ be afraid and expect the worst ’, asRussiaamassedmorethan100,000troopsneartheirborders.
Ukraine’s state security serviceSBUsaiditsawsignstheattackwas linked to hacker groupsassociated with Russianintelligenceservices . Russia-based hacker shavepreviously crippled the digitalinfrastructureof Georgia and Estonia inthe past after those countries angered the Kremlin.
The European Central Bank hasalreadytoldbankstotesttheirabilitytofendoffapotentialattack,withfinancialregulatorsonhighalertforanew strike. The ECB, led by formerFrenchministerChristineLagardeandwhichhasoversightofEurope’sbiggestlenders,hasdiverteditsattentionfrom regular scams to cyberattackslaunchedfromRussia,aninsiderrevealed.
And securitychiefs have told European and US banks to shore up theirdefence sin preparation fora potentialmassive hack .‘ ShouldEuropean bankssuffe ra si mu lt aneouscyb er attack , the potentialramifications are unimaginable where the economy of the whole region would be destabilised ,’ said Graham Day , an informationsecurity and cyb er security risk expert based in Ireland . So what could actuallyhappen to our money and our bank account sin the event of a mass ivecyb er attack?
‘ There could be delay sin domesticcustomersaccess ing funds immediatelyfollowingthecyb er attackpenetration .‘ However , it is probable banks shouldrecover the ATM networkthrough the segregated network ,’ said Mr Day , who is author of Security In The Digital World.
He also described as ‘ highlyunlikely ’the prospect of ordinarydomesticcustomers withoutsubstantial fundssufferinglosses in acyb er attack.
Attack erswhobr each bank securitywill be too busy rifling through majorclient and corporateaccounts tobother with small domesticcustomers. Instead,‘inserted malw are could
be configured tore move funds from accounts with a balance in excessofastipulatedfigure,therebyensuringthe largest gain is achieved’,hesaid.
We asked the Central Bank ofIrelandtocommentonMrDay’sanalysis;whetheritwassatisfiedwithitssecurity systems, and whether any
cyber ‘war games’ have beenconductedheretotestbankdefences.Aspokesmansaid,‘Wearenotinapositiontocomment.’
Russiahasrepeatedlydeniedthatitintends to invade Ukraine and someanalysts say it doesn’t need to as italreadyhasseparatistsfightingonitsbehalf in several proxy wars withinUkraine’s former borders that havealreadycostanestimated14,000lives.TheKremlinhasalsorefutedaccusationsthattheRussianstatehasanythingto do with hacks around theworldthatoftenappeartooriginateinthatcountry.
Russiasaiditisreadytocooperatewith the United States and others tocrackdownoncybercrime.
And Mr Day points out that , on thesurface at least ,‘ there has been significantefforton the part of the Sovietauthorities to demonstrate their commitment to eradicate groupsassociated with hacking ’.
‘Recentactivities have included thearrest of th eR Evil group , the arrest ofthe In fraud Organisation and mostrecently the closing ofn um erouscyberc rime forums ,’ he said.
ThehackerattackthatcrippledtheHSE last year reportedly originatedfromRussia.
The hackers then released theencryption key to unlock our healthsystem,claimingthatthiswasdoneonethicalgrounds.
However ,it’s also possible that ‘ thegroup succumbed to pressure fromthe Russianauthorities in response topressureapplied by the internationalcommunity ’, Mr Day said.
Ifthisweretrue,itwouldshowsomeelementofethicalresponsibilitybyRussianauthorities–butitwouldalso
betray at least some element of control over criminal hackers.
Meanwhile, watchdogs are warning of a new surge in energy bills of up to €800 a year – if an invasion does happen. British regulator Ofgem warned MPs of another hike that that could be worsened if Russia does actually invade Ukraine, hitting gas supplies to Europe and driving up global prices. Ofgem boss Jonathan Brierly said any increase ‘could be of the scale we have seen before’.
That would translate into another price rise of more than €800 in the UK, and most likely a similar further hike in Ireland.