Relegation does not spell disaster for Dublin
I EXPECT Dublin to lose in Omagh today and to be relegated by the end of the Allianz League. Let that be my contribution to what is in danger of turning into something of a media frenzy to bury Dublin as a relevant force in Gaelic football. My phone has been hopping for a few weeks, enquiring if I would like to provide some insight into the fall and fall of Dublin, and I know I’m not the only former Kerry soldier being sought out.
Perhaps, it is because there is an expectation we will perform a giddy jig on their grave.
There are two hopes of that happening – Bob and none.
That is not out of cuteness, or even out of respect – and I have plenty of that – but mainly because there is no substance to the prediction that Dublin are about to fall off some kind of cliff edge.
There are a few reasons for that. I sometimes think we import the language, and the values, from our over-paid neighbours in the Premier League.
Over there, relegation has severe consequences, not least in terms of finance; leading to shrivelled budgets, pay cuts and even job losses to those employed in clubs who make the drop.
All of that, along with the loss of prestige, can be devastating but in our game, it is not even defining.
When Dublin fall through the trap door – as I believe they will – it will generate a lot of noise but, in reality, it will alter very little.
If it happens, there may be a certain novelty of them playing sides like Antrim or Limerick next spring but, let’s be clear, their visit to the second tier will be a fleeting one.
Of course, Mickey Harte’s belief that you can’t win the All-Ireland from Division 2 will be thrown out, but I’m not so sure that theory is sound.
The exposure of playing in Division 1 is huge for a team that is evolving, seeking to make that jump to an elite level. We have seen the benefits of that with Monaghan in the recent past and currently with Armagh, but for teams who have a core of players with biggame experience, they won’t lose their way just because they spend a spring playing at a lower level.
Mayo spent 2021 in Division 2 and it does not appear to have done them any harm. The know-it-all will point out that they still didn’t win the All-Ireland final. Right, because there is compelling evidence that they would have done so had they stayed in Division 1 I suppose?
This might have been erased from a lot of folks’ memories but when Kerry’s 11-year All-Ireland famine ended in 1997, the team’s response was to get relegated to the old Division 2, which then consisted of the 16 lowest-ranked teams in the country.
It meant that in the 1998/99 campaign , Kerry were in a group with Louth, Antrim, Westmeath, Limerick, Wicklow, London and Kilkenny, which, in today’s currency, would constitute Division 4.
And the debilitating impact of that experience? Well, 12 months later we were All-Ireland champions again. It meant nothing other than a lost winter/spring.
Okay, the League has changed since it was streamlined into four straight divisions and scheduled in the calendar year, but the same principle applies.
Does anyone believe that if Dublin spend next year kicking ball with the likes of Meath, Cork and Clare that they will be rebranded as Championship makeweights?
Let’s live in the real world for a moment. Irrespective of how the next few weeks unfold, Dublin are going nowhere.
In the hype that greeted Kildare’s first win in 22 years, the improvement in Dublin’s performance from the losses against Armagh, Kerry and Mayo went under the radar.
Defensively, they were much more organised, intensity levels were higher and had they taken
Remember, this is Dublin Lite... they still have a lot of quality to come back
their goal chances, they would almost certainly have won.
Had that game been played in Croke Park – their playground of choice come the latter stages of the Leinster SFC and the All-Ireland series – who do you seriously think would have prevailed?
And remember this is Dublin Lite we are still talking about; a team without the likes of Eoin Murchan, Cormac Costello, Paddy Small, James McCarthy and the sublime Con O’Callaghan.
Those guys – although there is a possibility that McCarthy will make an appearance at some stage today – still have to come back and when they do, not only will they have a transformative impact, but they may actually return to a transformed team. For players like Ciarán Kilkenny, Brian Fenton, John Small, Brian Howard, Jonny Cooper, Michael Fitzsimons and Niall Scully, this is probably the first time in their inter-county careers they have faced adversity.
And if you don’t let it overwhelm you, adversity can be a powerful source of energy.
It will make a pleasant change from living in the bubble where they have spent most of their careers out of necessity to ensure that complacency did not seep in.
They can open the windows now and let in all the hostile noise, listen to all those tall stories of in-house fighting, of how they have grown old as a team and how they will have to accept that their glory days will only be revisited when they get together for beery reunions.
There is a great liberation in being written off and if you looked closely there were little signs of it in their raised display against Kildare.
I will be looking for more of that today.
They may not win, not least because Donegal lit a fire under Tyrone that will demand a response, but I will be shocked if Dublin don’t come out fighting today.
If they do, no matter where they finish in the table, it will be their way of saying they are not going away any time soon.
And that will come as no surprise to those of us who know them.