Government plan to get 945,000 electric cars on road by 2030 hit by energy crisis
Eamon Ryan’s plan to have 945,000 electric vehicles (EVs) on the road by 2030 is poised to become a major casualty of the current energy crisis.
The huge rise from the current figure of 62,000 vehicles is the centrepiece of the State’s plan to meet demanding new climate change targets.
However, concern is high over the capacity of the country’s creaking infrastructure to actually supply electricity to the planned additional 880,000 vehicles.
The Government target would need a daily electricity output of 500 megawatts similar to the capacity of the modern Great Island power plant in Wexford
Given these pressures, a senior motor industry figure this week told the Irish mail on Sunday: ‘We are for EVs, they are the way forward but in the current unique set of circumstances, it will be a miracle if we hit 600,000 let alone 945,000 by 2030.’
The national grid regulator Eirgrid warned prior to the current crisis that ‘when assessing system adequacy, Eirgrid needs to consider a wide range of assumptions and uncertainties including the potential demand impact of EVs on the system’.
The regulator expressed the hope that new smart charging technologies ‘will ensure that the need for grid development and additional generation capacity is minimised’.
However, in the absence of this an Eirgrid report bluntly stated that ‘based on analysis, around 500 MW of de-rated capacity is needed if smart EV charging is not developed by 2030’.
a spokesman for Eirgrid this week confirmed that in the absence of new technology, the system would need an extra 500 MW of capacity.
They warned: ‘This 500 MW is the equivalent of a large gaspowered power plant – the modern Great Island power plant in Wexford has a capacity of 464 MW.’
Social Democrat Climate
Change spokeswoman Jennifer Whitmore said ‘real questions of a practical nature’ surround the centre-point of the Government’s plan for carbon emission reduction.
She said: ‘First there were no charging points and now there’s no supply.
‘There is a serious feasibility question surrounding the minister’s plans both for heat pumps and electric vehicles, given the lack of investment.
‘The current situation of scrambling around every winter and narrowly missing blackouts is not sustainable and it does not build confidence in Green Party alternatives.
‘The minister needs to plan much more coherently.’
one Government source said: ‘It is difficult to see how the minister is going to carpet Ireland in electric vehicles if there is no electricity or charge-points.’
The exponential rise in electricity costs is also undercutting the main selling
point of EVs – that they are cheaper to run than petrol and diesel vehicles.
A key element of the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) advocacy of EVs is that ‘fuelling an electric vehicle costs much less than fuelling a similar size petrol or diesel car’.
The authority claims that you can save ‘as much as 70% on fuel costs’.
However, they now concede that owners of electric vehicles should be prepared to see an increase in their electricity bill.
A spokesman said: ‘But this increase is offset by a large reduction or complete elimination of their petrol or diesel bill.’
The authority does claim that EV owners can save more with clever charging, noting ‘if you usually charge overnight at home then you can save even more with night rate electricity’.
Sources in the car industry have warned that if the price of electricity continues to escalate, that advantage will be burnt away.
One source said: ‘We are at a tipping point where it will cost more to run an EV than a conventional car.
‘In recent months key advantages of EVs over petrol and diesel cars have almost been eroded.
‘There’s almost no resale value in the second-hand market because of the cost of replacing batteries. Borrowing to purchase a new EV is almost impossible because of this.’
Brian Cooke, chief of the Society of the Irish Motor Industry (SIMI) also warned the Government faced a very difficult task to hit its 2030 objectives.
Mr Cooke told the Irish Mail on Sunday that the Government ‘has a real shot’ at hitting the ambition of 190,000 EVs by 2025 based on current trading levels.
But then there remains ‘a very big gap’.
Commenting on the Government’s increasingly controversial support scheme for EVs he also warned: ‘The last thing we need is any reduction in supports.
‘The cost-of-living crisis continues, it will impact consumer confidence in areas such as EV sales.
‘If the economy is strong it gives us a better chance to increase the numbers.’