Leo’s return to the top job could finally unleash his long-promised electoral magic

IF LEO VARADKAR was to choose to associate himself with a super-spy, I suspect it would not be George Smiley, the plump, ponderous intelligence chief in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. The Tánaiste is, however, a cinematic guy. His fondness for Love Actually was revealed in his first trip to Downing Street.

So, I’m sure Varadkar is familiar with a scene that I can’t help thinking of as he prepares to reassume the office of Taoiseach. If you’ve seen it, you’ll remember the stunning, dialogue-free finale accompanied by an incongruous musical score with a young Julio Iglesias singing La Mer.

Smiley, British Intelligence’s Cold War spy master fell at the outset of the movie and has been slowly tracking down his enemies and now we see triumph. In the musicdriven scene we see his nemesis, Bill Hayden, loosely based on reallife traitor Kim Philby, smited and we move back to the Central London HQ – known as the Circus – to see Smiley assume the position of Spy of Spies. Smiley is in Control.

It’s a brilliant but complex film and although I’d read the John le Carré book, I recall sitting in the cinema for a few minutes as the credits rolled trying to figure out how the hell Smiley had so subtly and cunningly managed this coup.

On December 15 Micheál Martin will fill his boxes and gather up his family photos to allow Leo to return victoriously to the Taoiseach’s office in Government Buildings, two and a half years after he left it. Politics, I wager, promises to be cinematic after that.

THERE are many powerful and desirable positions in Irish politics, but when we get down to what really matters the only one that truly counts is the Office of Taoiseach. The direction, energy and tone of a government and the entire ruling apparatus is inspired by the person who occupies the Taoiseach’s office. And we will see the Government acquire vision and an unambiguous target: re-election. Fianna Fáil might be hedging, looking at perhaps coalescing with Sinn Féin but Fine Gael has only one option: a return of coalition with Fianna Fáil. Ignore this noise about Fine Gael believing it needs ‘a time in opposition’. Yes, Fine Gael will have spent 14 years in power by the projected 2025 election, but why would opposition be preferable to another five years in power? Nobody close to Varadkar is telling me that this is even nearly being considered.

Varadkar will assume all the momentum and unfettered power that comes with the highest office. He will appoint a Cabinet. And though many hope for a substantial Cabinet reshuffle, I think one that involves sackings is unlikely. Were Leo Varadkar to demote Simon Coveney or Paschal Donohoe it would be temporarily satisfactory but the longer-term bitterness would be too dangerous for the new Taoiseach, and not in the immediately apparent manner.

Many assume that a round of sackings leaves a number of disgruntled former ministers on the backbenches, plotting in the manner that Charlie Haughey did, and then Albert Reynolds did against Charlie. But parliamentary parties aren’t large enough for that anymore. So, if you sack a Cabinet minister and promote a junior minister or even a backbencher, the fear now is that you will overlook perhaps six aspirants who had been sitting by their phones tensely anticipating promotion.

Those six would then join the demoted one and a few of his supporters. Suddenly you have a sizeable group of TDs – and remember Fine Gael only have 34 – with no prospect of promotion.

Varadkar may make some eyecatching portfolio swaps. Simon Harris, sometimes characterised as a rival, has proven that he deserves promotion and could end up somewhere like Justice. This would involve moving Helen McEntee and her supporters say you could not be so unkind to a woman on maternity leave: but you’d only be unkind if she was demoted and we’ve never had a female Finance Minister (or Public Expenditure Minister). Fine Gael will need a chief whip as this is one of the offices that rotates: could Heather Humphreys be moved there? And get an enticing additional junior ministry?

Varadkar has been sustaining himself by creating victories out of nothing. Like this week when he appeared to put up a fight to keep Paschal Donohoe at Finance. It was a symbolic gesture to Paschal and the Fine Gael grassroots, that seemed to say: ‘I did my best.’ And it could be a pyrrhic victory for Fianna Fáil if Michael McGrath makes any big blunders early on. Similarly with his 30% tax rate campaign, which also seems to be lost. But not without Leo being positioned as the champion of the squeezed middle. And any interesting changes in tax rates and bands will now be credited to Varadkar.

MANY seem to forget why Fine Gael made Leo Varadkar their leader in the first place: he remains by far the most outstanding media performer (and manipulator) in Irish politics. Reacquaint Varadkar’s media skills with the top job and you may finally see the electoral magic long promised.

By January we will accept the ‘energy crisis’ as the new normal and any politician will have to understand that this is the field on which they must play. But everywhere else in the Irish economy there are incredibly encouraging data. We still have full employment, and more people employed in Ireland than ever before.

The EU Commission’s growth forecast index for 2022 has Ireland in second, with 5.4% (only Spain is ahead of us, with 5.8%). But 2023’s forecast index has us at No.1, with 4.4%, well ahead of France.

Sinn Féin, understandably for a left-wing, populist, opposition party, would have us believe we live in some kind of savage Hobbesian wasteland. Ireland is managing to economically outperform some of the largest and most powerful economies on the globe while our closest and largest trading partner, Britain, implodes.

On the UN Human Development Index Ireland ranks No.2, after Norway. That means Ireland ranks second to the country with the highest per capita sovereign wealth (they’ve oil, baby) for average longevity, education and income: out of 189 countries.

Sinn Féin has its story to tell, and its supporters to represent and with a regular poll rating of 36%, allied to huge 2020 vote shares it is a formidable opponent. But still, there are two years to go. And a renewed Taoiseach Varadkar, may be enough to limit existential damage to his party – at least.