Numbers simply don’t add up for a united Ireland poll

WE NOW know what the late and not-at-all-great Ian Paisley feared in 1969 with his foulmouthed attack on Catholics who he said ‘breed like rabbits and multiply like vermin’. The pity is that he didn’t live long enough to see how such a deliberately disgusting, openly sectarian, incendiary and disparaging attack on his neighbours would eventually play out, and in a manner which, at that stage at least, filled him with such dread and fury.

Bigots like Paisley always knew in the 1960s and 1970s that their contrived almost two-to-one majority Protestant state, founded in 1921 with a counterpart Free State in the 26 counties, would some time in the future flip into one where Catholics outnumbered Protestants. The only thing it would take was time. Well, now that time has come.

This week, details of last year’s census show Catholics now make up 45.7% of the North’s population, with Protestants accounting for 43.5%. Since the last census in 2011 there has been a drop of almost 5% in the Protestant share, with the Catholics increasing by just 0.6%.

AND, due to an older age profile and increased death rates, this trend is almost certain to continue, pointing in the direction of an overall Catholic majority in the next 10 years and a much-reduced Protestant share. Within minutes of confirmation that Catholics had overtaken Protestants in the North, and in a demonstration of gross prematurity, RTÉ was posing the question; what about a border poll on the reunification of Ireland? Straight out of the Sinn

Féin playbook.

There are at least three major issues that need to be confronted before anyone is reasonably entitled to think of a unification poll.

The first is that while Catholics form 45.7% of the population, only 29% of people in the North regard themselves as ‘Irish only’, meaning up to 18% of Catholics don’t. In the event of a unification poll it’s unclear how they might vote.

However, the Assembly elections give a good indication in this regard, showing that the combined Nationalist/Republican vote, of Sinn Féin (29%) and the SDLP (9.1%) means unification would almost certainly be backed by at least 38% in the North. Alliance supporters and ‘soft’ Ulster Unionist voters would be expected to push that to perhaps 45%.

In July, a survey by the Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool and The Irish News showed pro-unification and prounion support was neck and neck.

Which means the pro-unification vote would need to grow by at least 10% to convince a British government to allow such a poll in the first place. Secondly, it should be noted that just over 60% of voters in the Republic favour unity according to an Irish Times poll last year. However, only 20% regard unification as a priority and even fewer, 15%, want an immediate poll.

Which means that when the social, security and financial implications of unity are spelled out to southerners, support for a prompt reunification vote is likely to drop like a stone. Which leads into the third major consideration – what political architecture would be acceptable to nationalists and unionists in the event of reunification?

Should the national flag remain the Tricolour, or should it be the Tricolour with the Union Jack in one corner, or should it be a new flag altogether?

AND what about devolution in the North? Should Stormont continue for a decade or longer or permanently? And what about Ulster? Should it remain as six counties or return to the full province? Finally, what about money: should Britain continue to pump billions into the North (currently about £10bn a year and growing), and for how long? And if Britain refuses, do we still support unity?

This week, and with some justification in light of the torrent of Paisleyesque vitriol down the ages, some Catholics north and south may feel entitled to enjoy the satisfaction that schadenfreude brings.

However, this week’s news will not lead to a quick, German-style reunification.