Can you recall an intervention by Ivana Bacik in the national debate? I can’t

Irreverent. Irrepressible. In the corridors of power

COMEDIAN Eric Morecambe had a catchphrased joke where, mid-perfomance of The Morecambe And Wise Show, he’d shout at the audience: ‘What do you think of it so far?’ The answer – provided by Eric himself – was always ‘rubbish’.

Childhood memories of watching the family favourite came to mind when I was asked this week what I

thought of Ivana Bacik’s performance as Labour leader ‘so far’.

If any of my readers think I am being unfair, let us look at why she is the leader in the first place.

Ivana Bacik is leader of the Labour Party because the parliamentary party deposed predecessor Alan Kelly in the belief she would make them more popular.

Labour TDs and senators told me after last March’s ‘heave’ that their new leader would get them more media coverage and attention.

When you’re speaking to Labour people you take it as given that when they speak about the media they mean a select group of highbrow outlets, rather than the mediums the working classes might interact with.

I recall former Labour TD Colm Keaveney telling me that during a meeting with a party elder his frustrated boss slammed a rolled-up newspaper on the desk in frustration. It was telling that the newspaper was the distinctive, pink coloured Financial Times.

The Labour Party also thought Ms Bacik would ‘reinvigorate’ the membership.

Who the Labour Party membership are these days and what she would do to instil some vigour, I asked. At that stage, things got a little less specific.

ELECTED in a Dublin seat she would appeal to the metropolitan vote. The posher kind, preferably. None of these aims have been achieved, as Eric would say, ‘so far’. When the resolutely rural Kelly was ousted Labour were at 3% in the Red C/Sunday Business Post poll. By June, the party had received a bit of a bounce to 5%.

But they were rapidly back to 3% again and have remained around there, or lower since.

When you’re down this low in percentages seat projections are difficult but it could mean they save some seats or, on a bad day Labour come back with zero.

In 2020, under yet another leader, Brendan Howlin, Labour won six seats from 4.4%.

That they are now less popular under their saviour bodes ill, but there are far darker omens.

The blackest cloud on Labour’s horizon is Sinn Féin’s skyrocketing popularity since it’s already record breaking 2020 general election performance.

Speculation about who will suffer most when Sinn Féin runs sufficient candidates in the next general election to capitalise on their paradigm-shifting constituency vote share, has centred on Fianna Fáil.

But Fianna Fáil isn’t wholly marketing itself as a left-wing party. Labour is. Fianna Fáil also did not benefit from the #transferleft phenomenon.

This was a highly influential manoeuvre in the days running up to election day 2020.

The surge towards Sinn Féin only became apparent to candidates and election teams late in the campaign. Realising that Sinn Féin didn’t have enough candidates in the field to capitalise, its party members and other left-wing parties encouraged voters to give their preferences to left-wing parties.

Many Green Party, Labour, Social Democrats and other left-wingers would not be in the Dáil without it. Look at the constituencies where Labour hold seats now.

Ged Nash occupies a Labour seat in a five-seat Louth constituency, a traditional Sinn Féin stronghold. Bucking the trend, a pessimistic Sinn Féin actually ran two candidates here.

Imelda Munster was elected with a whopping 24.34% or 17,203 votes and Ruairí Ó Murchú, with 17.68% or 12,491. Don’t worry if you’re not familiar with these two Sinn Féin TDs, as they’re not among the politburo elite that are allowed speak in public.

On these figures, Sinn Féin will run three candidates here and see them elected next time out. Another not likely to be put forward to host a radio talk show (that’s Eoin Ó Broin’s bag) is Denise Mitchell. In 2020, she received one of the highest constituency votes ever seen in Dublin Bay North: 21,344 and

29.81%. Aodhán Ó Ríordáin occupies a Labour seat there.

IN THE Wexford constituency where Brendan Howlin holds one of the five seats, Sinn Féin’s Johnny Meythen received 24.93% and topped the poll. Labour’s Duncan Smith is in Dublin Fingal where Sinn Féin TD Louise O’Reilly was elected with a massive 24.89%.

And it goes on: in Seán Sherlock’s Cork East four seater, Sinn Féin candidate Pat Buckley got 23.08%. In Ivana Bacik’s Dublin Bay South, Sinn Féin’s Chris Andrews,

received 16.07% and in Alan Kelly’s Tipperary, Martin Browne got ‘just’ 12.03% but still 10,004 votes.

In all of these constituencies, bar Louth, Sinn Féin ran just one candidate, because of their then-recent local election failure. And in all of them bar Tipperary the Sinn Féin candidate topped the poll.

The transfers that came Labour’s way from Sinn Féin in 2020 will not come again, they’ll go to additional Sinn Féin candidates.

There are so many variables at play here, but if Labour conduct a honest assessment – or indeed just read the preceding paragraphs – they will see all Labour seats are under severe threat. Fianna Fáil may be in trouble but the other left parties, including the Green Party and Labour, are under existential threat from the Sinn Féin surge.

There will be no #transferleft movement which, loathe as they are to admit, all left-wing parties capitalised on. The centrist parties of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will suffer but not existentially.

All of this was the case when Ivana Bacik became leader, so the expectation was that she would sweep into Labour HQ and cause a revolution. There would be a huge uplift in mood, Dáil performances and media praise.

Can you recall a significant intervention by Ms Bacik in the national political debate since? I can’t.

Last week one of those most responsible for removing Kelly and replacing him with Bacik said that she would have to ‘bare her teeth’ soon. What’s the wait?

We can’t accurately speculate on her future Dáil election performances. A by-election, by which she was elected to Leinster House, usually gives zero indication of what lies ahead in a general election.

Such was Ms Bacik’s lack of interest in entering the Dáil back in 2020 – and so her lack of interest in party leadership – that she didn’t even run in the general election. Dublin Bay South, her constituency, has never before been without a Fine Gael TD and it would be safe to assume that party will be aiming to get its act together before 2025.

There is frustration in Fianna Fáil at what some see as stagnation and there are calls for a new leader.

Yet, I’ve covered quite a few leadership heaves and many don’t fully understand what such an act means.

Micheál Martin himself told me when reflecting on those who were calling, early on in the 2008-2011 government, for Brian Cowen to be ousted that they didn’t quite ‘understand’ what that meant.

Mr Martin had been in Fianna Fáil for the Haughey heaves of the 1980s and he had seen the animosity, hatred and trauma that a heave would cause.

The message from one of the most experienced was: it had better be worth it.

Was the political assassination of Alan Kelly, who actually had a longterm plan for Labour, worth it?

Was all that pain and humiliation imposed on Kelly, who was probably the party’s best chance of a seat, justified?

We can only judge that on Labour’s performance since he left.

Eric Morecambe’s self-assessment was a joke. We wonder what Labour’s self-assessment will be?