DELIVER OR FAIL? 18 KEY GOVERNMENT PROMISES
ECOMONY
1. Jobs and unemployment
THE PROMISE We will create 200,000 new jobs by 2025.
THE REALITY Epic triumph. Target surpassed this year. Ireland, with 2.5 million in jobs, essentially has full employment.
2. Corporation Tax
THE PROMISE The Government will retain the 12.5% corporation tax rate.
THE REALITY Epic fail. Ireland’s corporate tax rate will rise to 15% as part of an international deal. However, firms making less than €750m a year will be taxed at previous rate.
HOUSING
3. Rent reform
THE PROMISE The Government would prioritise real rental reform.
THE REALITY Fail. New rents have risen by 9% this year and are at record levels.
And the new tax credit of €500 per annum for renters in the private rented sector won’t resolve this.
4. Owning your own home
THE PROMISE Home ownership will be ‘within the reach of all’.
THE REALITY Fail. House prices are up 8% this year and are now overvalued by 7% according to the ESRI. Billions spent subsidising developers mean even starter homes in some housing estates have been snapped up by investment funds.
5. Social housing
THE PROMISE More than 50,000 additional social homes within the next five years. Local authorities to be central to delivering housing.
THE REALITY Fail. The capital expenditure on housing is 20% lower now than it was this time last year, with an underspend of €240m forecast for 2022… in the middle of a housing
crisis. Something is not working.
6. Affordable house scheme
THE PROMISE An affordable house purchase scheme will be ‘a matter of priority’.
THE REALITY Fail. No affordable homes were built in 2021.
The figure so far for this year is just 325.
7. Homelessness
THE PROMISE Funding for homeless services will be increased, including funding for drug-free hostels.
A commission on housing will be established and an unspecified referendum on housing will be held.
THE REALITY Fail. A total of 10,805 people are officially homeless and living in emergency accommodation. Of these, 3,220 are children – a huge 47% rise in the last year.
And the extent of the problem is, if anything, underplayed as many adults in their 20s and 30s are living with their parents.
CLIMATE CHANGE 8. Cycling
THE PROMISE Some 10% of the total transport capital budget will be spent on cycling and a further 10% on walking infrastructure, amounting to €360m per year.
THE REALITY Fail. A classic example of the difference between theory and practice and the endemic incompetence of Ireland’s councils.
They received €310m for Active Travel in 2021 and spent €179m. In the first six months of 2022 they spent €16.9m of a €373.6m allocation.
It’s not the minister’s fault, but what is he going to do about it?
9. Trains and buses
THE PROMISE Public transport fares will be reviewed and a rural public transport service which connects localities to the public transport system will be developed.
THE REALITY Promise kept. It took an inflationary pandemic, but Eamon Ryan’s cuts in public transport fares have been a rare triumph. That’s what happens when you act pragmatically.
10: Greenhouse gases
THE PROMISE The Coalition parties commit Ireland to an average 7% per annum reduction in overall greenhouse gas emissions from 2021 to 2030.
THE REALITY Fail. Early estimates of carbon emissions for 2021 indicate Ireland is already off target on its 2030 climate goals.
In 2021, Ireland’s carbon emissions fell by between 1.8% and 3.7% below 2018 levels, instead of the target of 4.8%.
More carbon taxes anyone?
11. Retrofit scheme: THE PROMISE
A
National Aggregated Model of Retrofitting reaching over
500,000 homes by 2030 will be delivered.
THE REALITY Fail, but improving. So far the scheme has struggled.
In the first five months of the this year only 6,903 homes had availed of the scheme, which is seen as overly bureaucratic and – at an average cost of €17,620 – outside most people’s reach. While the figures are improving, the 500,000 target is still looking to be very ambitious.
12. Offshore energy
THE PROMISE There will be a ‘major drive to realise the immense potential of
Ireland’s offshore renewables’.
THE REALITY Fail. Offshore wind is still living in the world of theory rather than practice. Drowning in red tape and bureaucracy, putative offshore suppliers are exiting rather than entering the market.
So far, the main achievement of the minister has been to set up the Maritime
Area Regulatory
Authority quango.
13. Electric vehicles
THE PROMISE The registration of new petrol and diesel cars will be banned after 2030 and will be ‘phased out’ in cities as Ireland prepares for 955,000 EVs on the road by 2030
THE REALITY Fail. The not unimportant issue of a lack of power points and purchasing power means the centrepiece of the Government’s climate change strategy is on the rocks. Even true believers now expect a 33% shortfall at best.
HEALTH
14. Health reform THE PROMISE
The acceleration of Sláintecare, the 10-year programme to reform our ailing health services, originally agreed on an all-party basis in 2017…
THE REALITY Publicly, with a slew of board resignations,
Sláintecare is in chaos.
But initiatives such as the abolition of all inpatient hospital charges from April 1, which amounts to a saving of up to €800 per person per year, indicate it is actually being implemented by stealth.
It’s a fine balance, but the ongoing sense of chaos in the HSE means we give it a fail.
15. GP care
THE PROMISE An increase in home-care hours, the extension of free GP care to more children and carers and the abolition of hospital charges for children.
THE REALITY Promise kept. Budget 2023 will increase the eligibility of people for General Practice access cards.
The scheme will be expanded to cover all children aged six and seven by the end of 2022.
Half a million additional people will be eligible to access free GP care.
CHILDCARE
16. Cap on childcare costs
THE PROMISE The new Government will examine setting a cap on childcare fees parents pay regardless of their income. A potential cap on creche fees to also be considered.
THE REALITY Promise kept. Caps are quite unpopular these days but the Government has finally realised childcare is a ‘basic necessity; and put €2,106 a year back into parents’ pockets.
The result is a childcare budget that has reached its €1bn target five years ahead of schedule.
17. Childcare workers’ pay
THE PROMISE The three parties agreed to determine a minimum rate of pay and employment terms and conditions for childcare workers.
THE REALITY Promise kept. Almost three quarters of childcare staff received a pay hike after a ‘historic’ new wage deal was signed off.
Half of employees’ pay is expected to rise by 10% or more, while the wages of a fifth of workers is expected to increase by at least 20%.
SOCIAL WELFARE 18. Welfare benefits
THE PROMISE
The Government will protect social welfare rates, in addition to other benefits vulnerable groups are currently entitled to.
THE REALITY Promise kept. Minister Heather Humphrey’s budget day bonanza of double payments, one-off payments and triple payments allied to a 12% pension increase even satisfied Willie O’Dea.
Lump sum payments in November will calm everyone else.