Poll: Only Boris can stem losses

MoS survey f inds voters believe former prime minister can offer strongest challenge to opposition at UK’s next Westminister election

BORIS Johnson was last night locked in talks over a ‘unity’ leadership deal with Rishi Sunak, as a Mail on Sunday poll found that he would offer the strongest challenge to the British Labour party at a general election.

The former British prime minister flew back to the UK yesterday from his Caribbean holiday with the aim of forging what an ally of Mr Johnson described as an ‘alliance in the national interest’, although plans for a face-to-face meeting yesterday were delayed – with both sides blaming the other for the hold-up.

The Deltapoll survey found that if a general election was held today, Labour would have a lead of 25 points – and an astonishing majority of 320. But if Mr Johnson was prime minister, the lead would be cut to 10 points, with a Labour majority of 26.

When the respondents were asked how they would vote if Rishi Sunak was the leader, Labour had a lead of 17% – and a majority of 124.

Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, who launched her leadership bid on Friday, would lose to a Labour majority of 216.

Sources told the Mail on Sunday that Mr Johnson was arguing that a bitterly divisive contest to succeed

Liz Truss should be avoided by Mr

‘Labour Party would have astonishing 320 majority’

Sunak taking a senior position in a new Johnson administration, on the grounds that Mr Johnson would win a ballot of Tory members anyway.

In return, Mr Johnson would expect ‘strict loyalty’ from the former chancellor – and if he couldn’t secure that, he would ‘leave Rishi to it’.

The two men have been political foes since Mr Sunak helped to bring down Mr Johnson in the summer by resigning.

But allies of Mr Sunak questioned the Johnson camp’s claim that they had secured the backing of the 100 Tory MPs needed to secure a place on the ballot, suspecting that they were being ‘bluffed’ into ‘folding’ too soon. They pointed to his strong lead in MPs’ endorsements.

Last night the number of MPs offering their public backing had reached 127 for Sunak, 54 for Johnson and 23 for Mordaunt.

Mr Sunak’s supporters believe that if he wins by a large enough margin, then Mr Johnson will not feel he has the authority to submit himself to the members’ vote.

Today’s poll shows that Boris Johnson retains a level of electoral magnetism far outstripping that of any of his party colleagues – despite the months of scandal, intrigue and infighting that brought down his premiership in the summer.

Although the poll shows that Labour would still be 10 points ahead if Mr Johnson were prime minister, the projected Labour majority of 26 that would signal could be soon overturned in a general election campaign.

The same can’t be said of the 124seat majority Labour are predicted to win if Rishi Sunak were leader, or the 320-seat majority if Liz Truss was still at the helm.

Critically for Mr Johnson’s renewed leadership hopes, private polling data circulating in the Tory Party indicates that he is the only candidate with a chance of winning the so-called Red Wall seats that are key to Tory election hopes.

In those seats, according to a Portland Communications poll, Mr Johnson has a +36 per cent approval rating, compared with +21 for Mr Sunak and +22 for Penny Mordaunt. When asked which potential leader would make them more likely to vote Conservative at the next general election, Mr Johnson came out on top with 56%, compared with 48% for Mr Sunak.

Mr Johnson’s electoral sway was highlighted last Friday night in Mr Sunak’s own constituency, Richmond in Yorkshire, when the author Jeffrey Archer spoke at an event for Tory MP Matt Vickers. When the 200-strong crowd was asked for a show of hands on who they would prefer as leader, Johnson or Sunak, Boris won by 60 to 40.

And a YouGov survey of Tory members published last week showed the ousted PM’s abiding popularity with the party faithful.

Released before Liz Truss resigned, it showed that Mr Johnson was party members’ preferred replacement, with 32% wanting him to come back compared to just 23% for Rishi Sunak.

But hanging over it all is the threat that just weeks after returning triumphant as PM, Mr Johnson could be suspended or even expelled from parliament.

The Commons’ Privileges Committee will next month begin taking evidence in public on whether Mr Johnson lied to fellow MPs over what he knew about lockdown-busting parties at No10.

If the committee – chaired by veteran Labour MP Harriet Harman – finds that Boris deliberately misled the Commons, it could propose a 10-day Commons suspension that in turn could require him to face a by-election in his marginal seat.

RETURN: Boris Johnson arrives at Gatwick Airport yesterday to begin leadership campaign