Political control not drama will determine the extent of the Cabinet reshuffle

NINETEENTH century historian Thomas Carlyle held that ‘the history of what man has accomplished in this world, is at bottom the history of the Great Men who have worked here’. Mr Carlyle’s principle was never really made for the history of Irish cabinet appointments.

The identity of which individual marshals which government department matters little to the pursuit of happiness of the Irish population.

The forthcoming reshuffle is really a matter for the small, elite group of politicians that it affects and those of us tasked with covering them.

Even the date means most people will be too engrossed in the normal Christmas build-up to notice.

The December 17 reshuffle of line ministers is very unlikely to alter our history, except in the only aspect that matters.

That is the orderly swapping of the office of Taoiseach between two men within the one government. If it were to go wrong, it would collapse the Government. But that has all been agreed.

So it is the changing – or nonchanging – of the rest of Cabinet that will be speculated on feverishly between now and then. Only 36 sleeps until Taoiseach Leo and Tánaiste Micheál reveal their hands.

But remember this – all reshuffles are primarily about one thing: political control.

Colloquially known as ‘keeping everyone in line’, this reshuffle is more nakedly political than most. The two leaders are weakened by their respective parliamentary representation, where small, disaffected cabals are now big ones.

Disorder is deeply undesirable – and any big moves are as likely to create disorder as solve it.

THAT is why those who crave drama have become misguidedly fixated on Health Minister Stephen Donnelly as a potential victim. Donnelly has no deep lineage in Fianna Fáil, indeed he has pursued an atypical, carpetbagger’s route for an Irish politician. He was a management consultant who capitalised on what we now understand as the great fissure in Irish politics: the 2011 national bankruptcy election. He grabbed the last seat in the five-seat Wicklow constituency.

Memories are short in politics: after emerging as the star of the 2016 general election debates, where Micheál Martin was often caught gazing admiringly across the TV studio, he topped the poll in Wicklow with 20% of the vote.

A year later he joined Fianna Fáil, a party conspicuously lacking in polished, metropolitan communicators. In the current Fianna Fáil Cabinet, besides Martin himself, he is the only one to have been an unambiguous campaigner for the abortion referendum. If he goes from Cabinet, this would be a deeply tired and conservative lineup, no matter who replaced him.

And more importantly, if Martin dropped Donnelly, who led us impressively through the Covid pandemic, he would be getting rid of one Minister who has an unequivocal achievement to his name.

Every measure of Ireland’s performance against international data reinforces his achievement. If he goes, what is the other achievement of Micheál Martin’s time as Taoiseach?

Incredibly, the Minister who has failed by every measure of his Department’s performance, Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien, is the only one who has been guaranteed his position.

Fianna Fáil has tried to make us believe that it is building more houses, the figures belie that. Elsewhere in this newspaper, the Social Democrat’s Cian O’Callaghan points to figures that show between January and September 2021 building began on 24,226 units. In the same period in 2022 there were 20,919 commencements (down 13.65%).

Failure, in the brave new world of the Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael alliance, wins you a guarantee of your place in Cabinet.

If there was a minister who is caught in the perfect storm of little internal support and significant underachievement, it is Education

Minister Norma Foley. Ms Foley has had a torrid time over school buses and not fully rational pandemic school closures.

She has been a bête noire of Fine Gael backbenchers and only joined the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party months before being made a Minister.

If Micheál Martin seeks to find a place for Jack Chambers, who will be vacating the Chief Whip’s role, Education is a possibility. Yet, gender balance remains a weeping sore for Fianna Fáil and that would have to be salved simultaneously.

Another hope for those seeking headline-grabbing head-chopping dissipated when it was announced that Paschal Donohoe would rotate roles from the Department of Finance to the Department of Public Expenditure, currently occupied by Fianna Fáil’s Michael McGrath. Donohoe is another who lacks strong support in his own parliamentary party, having been blamed, as Director of Elections, for the dreadful 2020 campaign.

Both McGrath and Donohoe have benefitted from the rise of a populist Sinn Féin at a time that the tide appears to be turning internationally against radical populists. Sober, pragmatic, even boring leadership will be at a premium in 2023.

In the pitiless arena that is frontline politics, some drama addicts think that Justice Minister Helen McEntee’s temporary leave to have her second baby might offer room for manoeuvre. There has even been speculation that Micheál Martin would choose this department, as he is allowed choose anything he wishes. But nothing in his 35 years in national politics has hinted at a desire to embroil himself in a department that still requires radical reform.

DOES Mr Martin really want to spend his final political years wrestling with a still dysfunctional Garda force and some of the bubbling scandals there? Where Justice is fascinating is that the still ad hoc maternity arrangements for a minister will have to be sorted out by the end of this month.

She will have to be reassured, so expecting that she is retained in this office then another door will slam shut.

Martin’s choice of departments is fascinating, but it is conjecture as to what he will choose.

Foreign Affairs would appear inviting, would lead him up to the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement next spring and allow a dignified departure.

In this scenario Simon Coveney would take Leo Varadkar’s role at Enterprise, Trade and Employment, which has just become a department for managing job losses rather than announcing new jobs. The big change will come at the top.

Leo Varadkar has emerged from what was by his standards, a lowprofile period.

Recently he has taken the attack to Sinn Féin, an area that has Fianna Fáil caught in ‘hedge your bets’ indecision.

The culture war between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, with unambiguously competing positions on the economy, law and order, and class structure will be the narrative of Varadkar’s comeback year, 2023.

Crossing the brave new frontier of Irish politics – a pre-agreed swapping of the office of Taoiseach – will perhaps provide a vivid enough drama next month for the small group of men and women in ministerial office.

Forget the speculation. With the first sign of trouble emerging in the main opposition party’s seemingly relentless march to Government Buildings, seasoned observers expect a less is more approach from the two men tasked with saving centre-led politics in Ireland.

Those who crave the gladiatorial theatre of imperial-bloodletting and traitorous ascent of ambitious heirs, may look to the TV schedules this Christmas and hope Russell Crowe’s epic Gladiator is somewhere there.

Thomas Carlyle too may not be enthused by the greatness of the men and women left to defend against the dangers of populism.