Dubs out in front but Kerry have fallen back
The flag is raised on Gaelic football’s great race today and eyes are already on the starting grid. Thirty three teams will set out in the provincial championships, all laying some claim — some a lot more tenuous than others — to taking part in the chase for the Sam Maguire.
By next month that number will be whittled down to 16 but if you are really looking for the teams genuinely in the mix, then you will have to wait until the last weekend in June and if you can’t wait until then, I can tell you who they will be and where they will start on my grid.
1DUBLIN:
I have been asked this week if my faith in Dessie Farrell’s team has been shaken by last weekend’s league final defeat having predicted that they would romp to a comfortable win.
On the contrary, I am even more convinced because losing that game — and the lessons they will have learned — has left them in an even stronger position.
The fundamentals remain the same; the best team last year are an even better version of themselves this year.
Looking at the likes of Killian McGinnis, Ross McGarry, Theo Clancy and the excellent Cian Murphy, with Stephen Cluxton, James McCarthy and Michael Fitzsimons to return, all topped off by generational talents like Brian Fenton, Ciaran Kilkenny and Con O’Callaghan, they remain out on their own.
The biggest difference is that they are the only county where there is genuine cut-throat competition to make the 26-man matchday panel.
2DERRY:
The only other frontline contender that can only also definitively claim to be a better version of themselves than they were 12 months ago, when they were good enough to win back-to-back Ulster titles.
Mickey Harte and Gavin Devlin’s impact has been clear to see in how they had depth to a squad that was far too shallow for its own good up, with Lachlann Murray once again hinting last weekend that Shane McGuigan might just get the strike forward partner that he has been craving for.
They are backboned by some formidable talent; the best midfield pairing in the game in Brendan Rogers and Conor Glass and the dynamic line-breaking force that is Eoin McEvoy.
They are a team that will win an All-Ireland sooner rather than later, but they may just have to wait one more summer.
3This time 12 months ago, they were the talk of the country, league winners and the form team headed by a high-profile management team but they endured such a bumpy run through the summer that they
MAYO:
ended up losing their way.
They are in a far better position this time. While others sweat over injuries, they have none. The sense grows now that they are well beyond any notional transition stage, the likes of David McBrien, Rory Brickerden and Sam Callinan taking lead roles in defence, while the return of Fergal Boland has provided them with the play-maker they needed.
Kevin McStay admitted this week that last year’s exit to Roscommon in Connacht blew their plans for the season and you can be absolutely certain they will go and win their province this year.
And after that, they will be a team determined to stay the course.
4KERRY:
They may be the market’s second favourites but expectations have been tempered by the sense that Jack O’Connor has not been able to develop the squad to the extent that he would have wished.
The departure of Jack Barry has laid bare the lack of options around the middle, while the uncertainty over Jason Foley’s ankle injury has added to their discomfort.
Because of that, a group that needed to take a step forward are, at best, at the same place as they were last year.
Every time I see Kerry, I am reminded of Gary Neville’s criticism of Manchester United as a team that plays ‘in moments’.
There is an element of that with Kerry too but with those ‘magic moments’ sourced in the trio of the Cliffords, David and Paudie, and Seanie O’Shea. That might just be too heavy a load even for players of their calibre.
5GALWAY:
Given that there are A&E departments under less pressure than Galway’s treatment room, their position this high up the rankings is perhaps a slightly false one.
But it is based on the belief that if they get all their key players back, there is no doubt that they have the quality to challenge.
It is easily forgotten now, but in early summer last year they were spoken about as the most likely to go and win Sam but they never recovered from a loss to Armagh.
If they can get the likes of Sean Kelly, Liam Silke, Cillian McDaid, Shane Walsh and Damien Comer back and in full health, they will contend. The issue is that it probably involves too many ‘ifs’.
6DONEGAL:
Proof that Jim is back winning matches is to be found in the fact that Donegal are still unbeaten and playing with a verve and purpose that makes them unrecognisable.
They have the middle eight power and presence to press teams high — check out the dynamic Peadar Mogan — while the decision to switch Caolan McGonagle to centre-back looks like a masterstroke.
They have the conditioning to stay the course, but the biggest question is if they have the forward power to capitalise on all of that?
7ARMAGH:
Their paucity of silverware hardly validates the progress that they have made under Kieran McGeeney, but it is not by accident either.
They were playing better two years ago when they had the handbrake off and were going after teams but in trying to find that elusive balance, they have been compromised.
They seem, at times, to be more obsessed about staying in games than winning, but as they showed in the last 10 minutes against Donegal, if they had the clarity of purpose to get on the front foot, it would serve them better.
8TYRONE:
Their form has not been good but the foundations are still there. They have, on current form, the best goalkeeper in Niall Morgan, a very strong midfield pair in Brian Kennedy and Conn Kilpatrick, and a deadly strike partnership in Darragh Canavan and Darren McCurry. They need to fit in the bits around them but getting a fit Conor Meyler and Mattie Donnelly back on the pitch would go some way to doing that.