Harris is facing the horror scenario of losing half his TDs before the election
More departures expected from party after failure of talks aimed at persuading quitting deputies to stay
TAOISEACH Simon Harris faces the nightmare prospect of losing up to half of his sitting Fine Gael TDs after talks aimed at convincing some of the departing deputies to stay failed.
The Fine Gael leader had hoped to stem the exodus of party TDs as he prioritises maintaining as many seats as possible ahead of the next general election.
But talks with departing TDs, such as Kerry’s Brendan Griffin, did not lead to changes of mind and a boost to Mr Harris’s leadership.
And after an underwhelming first week in the top job in which he was criticised for his failure to turn up in the Dáil to take Leaders’ Questions, and confusion over who would take charge of the Gaeltacht portfolio, party sources said more departures are likely over the coming weeks and months.
So far, 12 of the 35 Fine Gael TDs elected in 2020 – including former Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy, who quit in 2021 – have announced their decision to stand down after the next election.
These are likely to be joined by outgoing taoiseach Leo Varadkar and his former leadership rival Simon Coveney, who stood down as Minister for Enterprise.
A senior party figure said of Mr Harris’s new-old team: ‘The Enda Kenny regime is back. Enda on the big screen at the Ard Fheis, Frances Fitzgerald, Phil Hogan sitting there grinning at the Ard Fheis with the dignitaries. Do you really think they [Varadkar and Coveney] plan to hang around in a place without a welcome mat?’
In what would be a further blow to the new Taoiseach, sources also said Clare TD Joe Carey is unlikely to run again due to his health, while veterans Michael Ring (Mayo) and Bernard Durkan (Kildare North) are also understood to be seriously contemplating retirement.
One source said of former minister Ring: ‘It’s 60/40 in favour of Michael going. He does not wish to stand in the way of young talent. He had a hard fight to break the glass ceiling of the old dynasties.’
Sources also warned that other TDs who lost out in Mr Harris’s reshuffle of FG ministers, Alan Farrell (Dublin Fingal) and Colm Brophy (Dublin South-West), are also ‘considering their futures’.
One source said: ‘Ambitious, able fellows like Farrell and Brophy must be seriously considering their positions. They are young enough to consider new careers and they came in from the private sector.’
They added: ‘We are a curiously set-up party. There are the haves and the have nots. The haves are the 14 ministers and three happy backbenchers, Damien English, Bernard Durkan and Frank Feighan. The rest have no interest served by staying there.
‘They are on political death row or have no reason to stay.’
While Public Expenditure Minister Paschal Donohoe has publicly stated that he intends to contest the next election, sources within the party said they would not be surprised if he has a change of mind if other opportunities arise.
Another source said: ‘The reality is that the departures are not over. There has to be serious issues over Joe Carey, the Leo old ministerial guard and even Bernard Durkan. ‘Harris has at least eight TDs he will be watching very carefully. If they go, we will be in the astonishing situation where 20 of the 35 TDs will be gone… That will pose us huge organisational challenges.’
The difficulties facing Mr Harris
‘They are on political death row’
in plugging the exodus from his party come amid growing Coalition fears over the threat posed by Independents.
These fears are underlined by an Irish Mail on Sunday analysis of each of the country’s expanded 43 constituencies, which indicates that around 40 Independents could be returned to the next Dáil.
This would give the combined Independent groupings more seats than Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil.
One senior Coalition source told the MoS: ‘The new reality we are
starting to fear is that Independents, not us, are poised to fight it out with Sinn Féin to capture the most seats in the election.
‘One of the questions that will decide any election date is whether we should wait for the Independent gale to blow itself out, a bit like former Labour leader Eamon Gilmore in 2011?
‘What do we do if the tide doesn’t recede? There isn’t a constituency in the country where they won’t contend. It will be like 2020 when the voters were asking who’s Sinn
Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald’s candidate. This time they will be asking who is with Wexford TD
‘There will be no early election’
Verona Murphy, or Roscommon Galway TD Michael Fitzmaurice?’
This week, Verona Murphy – who has already launched her own team
of 12 candidates to contest the local elections in Wexford – gave her backing to Laois general election candidate Pauline Madigan.
Speaking at the event in Portlaoise, Co. Laois on Thursday, Ms Murphy said: ‘The move to Independents is about people reasserting their rights to be governed by themselves and for politics to become relevant to the basic needs of people: to farm as they want, to build homes and to be not told what to do by a Dublinbased elite. Parties are about
politics and politicians; this is about people and their right to return to basics.’
In an indication that the Coalition’s hope is that the feared Independent tide will recede, Mr Harris has made it clear to his closest political allies that it is his firm intention for the Government to stay the full course until March next.
One of Mr Harris’s supporters told the MoS: ‘There will be no early election. Insofar as Simon Harris can be genuine on anything, he is firm on this.
‘Election endings cannot be predicted. He doesn’t want to be some sort of blip or cipher for a couple of months and end up being the answer in every pub quiz as to
who was the shortest-serving taoiseach ever.’
Another senior Harris ally added: ‘Let’s be utterly clear here: he doesn’t want to be a Liz Truss [the former British prime minister]. There are certain things he wants to put in place, like opening the National Children’s Hospital and a new housing strategy.
‘Things like that and the national sports grant are being delayed until the autumn. Why do you think that’s happening?’