Top economist with AIB down on Brexit brief

JUST as the Brexit uncertainty gripped even more tightly last week AIB’s top economist was in Kerry sounding quite a few positives.

AIB Chief Economist Oliver Mangan delivered a comprehensive overview of the State’s projected fortunes in the context of the global economy; with particular emphasis on Brexit – at an AIB lunchtime seminar in Tralee’s Ashe Hotel on Tuesday.

Up to 100 local traders were present, hanging on every word at a time when the entire country is trying to make sense of the Brexit mess.

Many of their questions were answered in the course of Mr Mangan’s lucid and wide-ranging presentation. His message in a layman’s nutshell: Our economic growth will continue solidly - provided the EU and UK can deliver a ‘soft’ Brexit.

Britain’s exit has at this point failed to impact the Irish economy in a major way and the strong growth here is likely to continue under a negotiated withdrawal, Mr Mangan pointed out.

Factors behind the growth include the gradual improvement of the construction industry, continuing growth in public spending; low interest rates underpinning economic activity as well all against a background of solid growth globally. Further positivity is found in the fact the growth in GDP forecast for 2019 - 2021 is ‘good’, meanwhile.

But all bets are off in the event of a ‘ hard’ Brexit. This, along with a global slowdown, are the main risks facing Ireland’s fortunes, Mr Mangan warned.

An AIB ‘Brexit sentiment index’ meanwhile showed ‘very negative’ sentiment readings, but firms report little impact in reality; with SMEs surveyed by the bank most concerned about the post-Brexit future. The survey found that tourism, manufacturing and retail sectors are the most concerned.

AIB Senior Treasury Manager in Munster Paul Ward also delivered a very informative presentation - on advice on treasury options.

Head of AIB Kerry Sean Healy, AIB’s Head of SME in Kerry Margaret O’Connor and AIB branch manager Tralee Stephen Stack said they were delighted with the turnout and the very positive feedback they received.

Photos by Domnick Walsh ABOVE: From left, AIB Chief Economist Dr Oliver Mangan, Mary Rose Cantillon, AIB, Margaret O’Connor, AIB, Liam Nolan, AIB Tralee branch manager Stephen Stack and guest speaker Paul Ward at the AIB Lunchtime Economic Seminar in the Ashe Hotel on Tuesday.LEFT: AIB Tralee manager Stephen Stack with Sean Hussey, Darragh Long, John Reen and Head of AIB Kerry Local Market Sean Healy.