MAJOR BATTLE ON THE CARDS FOR LAST SEAT
VITAL LAST FEW DAYS OF CAMPAIGNING TO SWAY THE MANY UNDECIDED
THE count for the Sligo/ Leitrim constituency is all set for a cliffhanger this coming Saturday with the main parties all eyeing the possibility of grabbing a second seat.
Counting gets underway at 9am in the Clarion Hotel and the next couple of days are seen as crucial by the candidates as they try to win the hearts and minds of voters.
Pundits and bookmakers are all in agreement that there’s likely to be one seat each for Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin but it’s the personnel that’s less clear to call and whether or not these parties can grab a second seat or will there be the possibility of a surprise with the election of an independent runner.
It looks set to be a fascinating battle for that fourth and final seat with as many as six candidates in the running for it.
Sinn Féin’s Martin Kenny, a Councillor from Ballinamore is as low as 1/ 10 to get a seat for the party and this would appear to be spot on given that Michael Colreavy managed to win a seat for the party in 2011 when the constituency was a three seat and was the more straightforward Sligo/ North Leitrim.
Leitrim is back in the fold as it were for this election but the vast constituency of Sligo/ Leitrim now also includes Ballyshannon and Bundoran of South Donegal and large parts of West Cavan with a total population of some 119,000 making it one of the biggest constituencies in the country.
It’s been a big struggle for all of the candidates to get around it with many glad the campaign is coming to an end after an exhausting few weeks with some having started canvassing well before Christmas.
With Kenny tipped to win a seat it depends if he has enough of a surplus to keep former Sligo Borough Councillor Chris MacManus in the race and eventually push him over the line.
MacManus himself feels that the final seat will come down to “a scrap between Sinn Féin and Fine Gael.” “Sinn Féin are the only party locally that can stop Fine Gael taking a second seat,” he claimed. Recent slippage by the party in opinion polls might make the chance of a second seat a little bit more difficult in Sligo/ Leitrim though the party strategy of dividing the constituency equally could yet reaps dividends.
John Perry and Tony McLoughlin took two seats for Fine Gael in 2011 and there has been an intense rivalry between the camps during the campaign as they attempt to hold on to their seats.
With Fine Gael holding steady in the polls they will be hoping that Tuesday night’s final leaders’ debate will see the party gain those extra percentage points to enable it keep its two seats.
There’s no doubting the outgoing Government is unpopular and they’ve a real fight on their hands if Perry and McLoughlin are to be returned.
As the campaign wore on, its election catchphrase of ‘ keeping the recovery going’ was backfiring on a daily basis as people in the towns and villages of rural Ireland retorted: ‘ what recovery?’
In the mix also for Fine Gael is former TD Gerry Reynolds. Will Leitrim have enough votes to elect two TD’s in Kenny and Reynolds? That would be real turn up for the books.
It would be a major surprise were he to push both McLoughlin and Perry out and grab the one seat that might be for the taking for the party.
Fianna Fáil has high hopes that it will take at least one seat. Senator Marc MacSharry is clear second favourite to win a seat for the party.
He didn’t make it in 2011, an election which also saw Eamon Scanlon lose his seat in what was a black day for the party.
The party has recovered to an extent and as the campaign wore on and with the help of leader Micheal Martin’s astute live television debating, the party has crept up steadily in the polls.
There’s one seat most definitely for the party in a four seater and if the party continues its upward trend in the opinion polls then it cannot be ruled out of grabbing that final seat which would be some turnaround for the party since 2011.
In its favour too is the good showing by the party locally in 2014 at the Local Elections. It must be remembered too that Scanlon polled 9,347 votes at the last election on a very bad day for the party as he says himself.
There’s always surprises at elections and this one will prove no different.
Whether Sligo/ Leitrim delivers one is another story. Generally, the constituency has voted Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil with the odd exception in recent times being the election of Independent Marian Harkin in 2002 and before that Declan Bree as a Labour Party candidate in 1997.
Councillor Bree is contesting yet another election, this time as an independent and along with Councillor Marie Casserly cannot be ruled out being in the shake- up for that final seat, particularly if the number of people who say they are going to vote independent or smaller party remains as high as 30% on polling day.
People Before Profit’s Nigel Gallagher is another interesting candidate and should benefit like the aforementioned if there’s a significant swing towards independents.
All three have put in strong campaigns and if there’s to be a surprise in Sligo/ Leitrim then it will come from either of these three.
With Labour doing so poorly in opinion polls it’s highly unlikely there’ll be a seat in Sligo/ Leitrim for Senator Susan O’Keeffe.
Others with huge tasks to try to win a seat will be Renua’s Finbarr Filan and Independents, Bernard Sweeney, Bernie O’Hara , Eamonn Murray and Des Guckian.
The Green Party’s Leslie O’Hora is another rank outsider and unlikely to figure while Fianna Fáil’s third candidate, Paddy O’Rourke is also likely to go out early in the contest.
Eleven of the 18 candidates hail from Sligo and apart from Martin Kenny that’s likely where three of the four TD’s will be from.
Kenny and MacSharry are clear favourites to win seats with a close call between McLoughlin and Perry for the third seat. The loser of the internal party battle between these will then be involved in the dogfight for the final seat which will also likely include MacManus, Scanlon, Casserly, Bree and possibly Reynolds.
It cannot be tighter and there’s a lot to be played for right up to polling day on Friday.