All eyes on March 10 but flexibility needed on all sides

INFLEXIBILITY could well be biggest obstacle to government formation. The people have spoken but now we must try and decipher what they are saying - that’s the task ahead as the final seats in Election 2016 are being decided. The re- emergence of Fianna Fail, the continuing upward curve of Sinn Fein, and the steady rise of Independents have all conspired to create the most interesting of permutations as we now look to March 10 and the task of forming a government.

Fine Gael and Labour suffered the wrath of voters’ anger with the latter bearing the brunt of the government’s collapse. But the elephant in the room now is whether or not the conflation of Civil War politics is finally upon us.

Fianna Fail gathered 24.3 per cent of the first preference vote, compared with 17.4 per cent in 2011. Whether or not this signals that the party’s period of atonement is at an end, or just a reflection of the electorate’s exasperation, is still unclear.

But what it does tell us is that the business of forming a government is now going to be one of the most interesting political chapters since the foundation of the state. Fine Gael and Labour have paid the price for not ‘ selling the recovery’ effectively and the high- profile casualties in both parties will call into question the judgements of Enda Kenny and Joan Burton in their capacity as party leaders - and their call on the election date.

Labour will also feel aggrieved that there now exists among the election victors a luxury of political self- preservation as they attempt to iron out a coalition – a luxury Labour feel did not exist back in 2011 when the Troika was pulling the nation’s strings.

But Sinn Fein will also be asked big questions in the coming weeks. The party openly encouraged the electorate to come out and ‘ vote for change’ on polling day but they have since circled the wagons saying they will not enter government as the smaller party. Sinn Fein have clearly learned a valuable lesson from the Labour Party but will their long- term strategy to become the largest party in the State work as the machinations of government formation get underway?

In a year which sees Ireland celebrate the centenary of the 1916 Rising, March 10 and the prospect of forming a government is likely to polarise all the old intra- nationalist divisions as the FG, FF and SF faithful gather to carve out a deal.

It’s certain that in each case the historic principles that have so far divided the protagonists are likely to supersede those of government formation and any permutation will require a measure of compromise with a bitter adversary. Whether or not this can be achieved remains the question.

And what of the disparate groups and Independents who have provided refuge for voters disenfranchised with the party political system? The Social Democrats, AAA, Renua and Independent Alliance, as well as the Green Party, may have extended voter choice in this election, but equally they have brought us no closer to filling those vital pieces of jigsaw in government formation.

The results have injected much uncertainty for sure as we look to piece together the 32nd Dáil, but only political inflexibility from those elected can create the chaos. If the latter is the call, then we must do it all again some time soon, and that, quite frankly, is a solution people do not want.