Whatever Friday’s result the abortion debate still has a long way to go
NO matter what way Friday’ s referendum vote goes no-one should be in any doubt that the contentious abortion debate still has a very long way togo. There is a rather large misconception among many campaigners and voters on both the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ sides that this week’s referendum will bring a definitive resolution to one of Ireland’s most divisive issues.
This stems from the fact that a lot of people still don’t understand exactly what they will be voting on.
To be clear, the vote is to repeal the Eighth Amendment and nothing more.
If the ‘Yes’ side wins and voters back repeal there is still a long way to go before abortion is legalised, if indeed it actually is.
On May 25 th, voters will be asked if they wish to see the Eighth Amendment – Article 40.3.3 of the constitution which guarantees the equal right of the mother and the unborn – replaced with one line stating that “provision may be made by law for the regulation of termination of pregnancy”.
This does not mean that abortion will be legalised. It means the issue will be placed entirely in the hands of the Dáil and Seanad.
There will be no more referendums and the decision to legalise abortion or to maintain the present ban will lie solely with our 158 TDs and 60 senators.
Therein lies the rub.
No matter what the ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ sides maintain, it is almost impossible to predict what the Oireachtas will decide or how long that decision will take.
The majority of the Dáil and Seanad back repeal of the eighth but both houses are far more divided when it comes to the legislation that may follow.
For example, only around 60 TDs have publicly backed the Government’s favoured proposal which would allow unrestricted abortion up to 12 weeks.
If that proposal is to pass, around 20 more Dáil votes are needed and it is thought that most of the roughly 30 undeclared TD’s are opposed to it.
While Sinn Féin is backing ‘Repeal’, the party hasn’t made a decision on any post-vote legislation. In Fianna Fáil – where no whip has been imposed – 31 TDs and senators are against repealing the eighth at all, never mind legislating to actually allow abortions take place.
There is also a base political motive for many TDs to shy away from abortion and to delay any potential vote on it
With a General Election on the horizon, nervy TDs won’t want to risk alienating voters, particularly if their stance is at odds with how the majority of their constituents vote this week.
It is telling that three years after it was introduced, the Public Health Alcohol Bill is still making its way through the Dáil.
Dealing with Ireland’s alcohol crisis is far less controversial than legalising abortion and yet that much less emotive bill has still been ripped asunder and tied up in knots by lobby groups.
Anyone who thinks an abortion bill will move any faster – in the face of far more opposition – should think again.