Sligo/Leitrim not so predictable now
IT has been notable, in following coverage of this campaign in the national media, that predictions of what may happen in the constituency of Sligo-Leitrim have invariably come with a health warning: it’s a race that is almost too close to call.
From political anoraks to the most passive observer, Sligo-Leitrim is so intriguing because there are so many potential outcomes: Fianna Fáil losing one of its seats, Fine Gael losing its seat, Sinn Féin losing its seat or Marian Harkin returning to Dáil Éireann are among the headline permutations.
Let’s start with the latter, and the potential return of Harkin to domestic politics.
Her late entry into the race has certainly stirred matters, and many commentators feel she is a certainty for a seat.
Harkin’s electoral record is good, and having spent 15 years in Europe, the Sligo native is back looking to regain the seat she won in 2002.
The fact that it is a sprawling constituency should actually help Harkin here: her profile as a MEP means she has been on the ballot paper at European level in all four counties.
Whether her appeal is as strong as it was at the general election in 2002 – when Harkin topped the poll – remains to be seen, but all the indications at this stage suggest Harkin is a serious contender.
The Sinn Féin seat should be safe. While early indications locally – a poor local election result in Leitrim, and the decision to withdraw Chris MacManus’ candidacy – suggested that Sinn Féin regarded its seat here as vulnerable, strong recent poll results and constituency-wide access to Sinn Féin votes means
Martin Kenny is odds-on to retain his seat.
Do bear in mind, however, that the loss of west Cavan will impact the vote of Kenny – this was an area the party performed well in in 2016. If Kenny polls poorly in terms of first preferences, his ability, or lack thereof, to attract transfers could also hinder his chances.
The campaign at a national level is finely poised. While national support levels catch the headlines in each opinion poll, the trends emerging from the series of polls so far offer the sharpest insight into the public’s mood.
So far, the trend has been fairly clear: Fine Gael’s support has fallen, and Sinn Féin appears to be the direct beneficiary.
Barring the initial Sunday Times poll early in the campaign – which put the party at 32pc – Fianna Fáil’s increase in support has been more modest.
Given the well-documented internal difficulties Fine Gael has endured in this constituency, the party will likely be happy if they can retain one seat.
Both Thomas Walsh and Frank Feighan are running high-profile campaigns, and the two-candidate strategy should give either candidate access to more votes than the three-candidate strategy of 2016.
Former party TD John Perry is also in the field as an Independent – will he retain much of his old FG support? Some of the Sligo vote will go the way of Perry, and of course there is an intriguing subplot in the battle between Perry and his former aide Thomas Walsh.
The party has always traditionally held at least one seat in the constituency; for example, they held one seat in 2002 and 2016, both difficult elections for the party. Barring a major swing against Fine Gael, with tight vote management there should be enough support constituency-wide for the party to retain one seat.
Whether it is Walsh or Feighan to take it really is on the toss of a coin – obviously, whoever garners more first preferences will certainly be in the driving seat.
And so, to Fianna Fáil. The party exceeded expectation in 2016 by claiming two seats and harbours justified hopes of doing so again in 2020.
While the two TDs are in county Sligo – Marc MacSharry and Eamon Scanlon – much will hinge on the performance of the party’s Leitrim candidate, Shane Ellis.
Ellis, based in Fenagh and a son of former TD and Senator John Ellis, does not currently hold elected office.
However, name recognition across county Leitrim leaves him well placed to pick up votes across the board.
The big question is, can Ellis perform as well as Cllr Paddy O’Rourke did in 2016? The performance of O’Rourke, when he took just under 5500 first preferences, was central to Fianna Fáil winning two seats.
Indeed, part of O’Rourke’s rationale for not seeking a nomination on this occasion was the loss of the west Cavan end of the constituency, where he garnered approximately 2000 votes in 2016.
Its loss, much like Sinn Féin, could also damage Fianna Fáil.
When eliminated, O’Rourke’s vote transferred relatively well to Eamon Scanlon, which provided him with the lifeline he needed to eventually scrape over the line ahead of Gerry Reynolds. Scanlon also benefitted from MacSharry’s surplus.
In the absence of a strong performance from Shane Ellis, Fianna Fáil’s two seats could be in jeopardy, with Eamon Scanlon looking vulnerable, but his transfer friendliness could be a major asset in the latter stages of the count.
Of course, there are many other candidates in the field.
Those in the wider Sligo urban area – Nessa Cosgrove of Labour, Independent Declan Bree and People Before Profit’s Gino O’Boyle – will all benefit from the absence of Tony McLoughlin and Chris MacManus on this occasion. While it’s unlikely that any of these candidates will be elected, the destination of their transfers will be pivotal.
While it’s very difficult to predict at this stage how Sligo-Leitrim will pan out, the margins would appear to be so tight, particularly for the fourth seat, that the national campaign over the next ten days and its impact on the wider support for the parties will have a major bearing on matters in the Sligo Park Hotel on February 9 th and 10 th.