ELECTION LESSONS LEARNED
AN ASSESSMENT OF THE PARTIES IN THE LAST WEEK OF GENERAL ELECTION 2020
THERE are lessons to be learned by every political party during an election campaign.
The main hope for all parties and indeed, candidates is that they don’t make any major gaffes and come through the campaign relatively unscathed. For Fine Gael it has been once disaster after another. Hard enough in having to defend a nine year record in Government that saw hardly any or no improvements in health and housing issuesbut it then had to start firefighting as the party began to score some spectacular own goals.
It was quite clear that the days of the outgoing Dáil were numbered with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar simply losing his voting majority in the wake of record housing and hospital trolley numbers.
Housing Minister Eoghan Murphy just about survived a vote of confidence but Health Minister was unlikely to which hastened the run to the country instead of a what seemed to be the preferred time for everyone in May.
A February election is hardly ideal with politicians and canvassers battling hail, sleet and snow without also having to deal with self made controversies too.
‘Swing Gate’ and the RIC Commemoration were early own goals for Fine Gael but matters got even worse as the campaign got underway which must have led to Varadkar pulling his hair out!
Mid-election report on each of the parties and main independent candidates standing in Sligo/Leitrim:
Going into the election with two candidates which weren’t the original choices was hardly an ideal situation. Cllr Sinead Maguire and former TD Gerry Reynolds were picked but they didn’t last long.
The party dithered for what seemed like an age before choosing Cllr Thomas Walsh and Senator Frank Feighan. Former TD, John Perry was overlooked once more so he has declared as an independent.
The retirement of Tony McLoughlin was a huge blow to the party which realistically can only hope to return one TD.
Cllr Walsh was selected very late as the party held talks with Marian Harkin and it was embarrassing for the party to be then turned down by her.
Perry will hurt the Fine Gael vote especially in the south and west of the constituency while Marian Harkin will do damage to Cllr Walsh in an area he was hoping for strong support - Ballygawley-Ballintogher and North Leitrim.
The expelling of Perry’s sone, Jude and wife, Marie from Fine Gael was a complete shambles for the party. It looked so wrong and a quick reversal might have undid some of the damage but Perry will be hoping for a bounce from it.
Might Fine Gael be left without any seat? Difficult to call. The party polled 27% in first preferences in 2016 and even with a drop of eight or nine points, it should be enough to see the party grab one seat.
Steady as it goes for the party in Sligo/Leitrim. No politician likes to hear other people say they are safe but it would be a major surprise if Marc MacSharry doesn’t hold on to his seat. Was elevated to front bench spokesperson on Transport, Tourism and Sport which is an indication he is back in favour with leader, Micheal Martin and a possible ministerial appointment if the aprty leads the next Government which appears likely.
Eamon Scanlon will be hoping for a strong showing from Leitrim’s Shane Ellis for transfers to get him over the line.
The three candidate strategy worked perfectly last time out with transfers from Paddy O’Rourke following party lines exactly to boost the Scanlon and MacSharry tallies. Ellis’s transfers will be crucial if the party is to retain its two seats.
The party got spooked big time when Marian Harkin entered the race and pulled Cllr Chris MacManus from the race. The party has a strong candidate in outgoing TD, Martin Kenny who should hold on but a second runner might have been more of a help than a perceived hindrance. MacManus could end up as an MEP though if Matt Carthy makes a successful return to national politics for the party.
Struggling nationally and not the force it once was. The ‘ hard’ left has stolen a march on the party, Hasn’t recovered from the coalition of 2011. Running a very capable candidate in Sligo/ Leitrim in Nessa Cosgrove. Ran a good campaign in last year’s local elections and is sure to go very close in the next locals. Will see this General Election as base building.
Gino O’Boyle was co-opted onto Sligo County Council after the passing of his father Seamus in 2015 and held that seat in the elections of 2019. PBP ran Nigel Gallagher in 2016 and he got 2.8% of the first preference votes (1,768) so O’Boyle will be looking to improve on that, especially given the impressive performance of party leader Richard Boyd Barrett in the various national TV debates.
Bláithín Gallagher is runing for a party which leader Eamon Ryan reckons can take 15 seats overall. There won’t be a seat in Sligo/Leitrim however. Party policies might appeal to those in or around Dublin but rural Ireland isn’t quite ready yet for its share a car among 30 proposals or carbon taxes or cutting of the national herd with even its candidate in Mayo, Saoirse McHugh not supporting much of its key objectives.
There are a number of what can kindly be called also-rans in this category like there were in the 18 strong field in 2016.
The main contenders is this category can be reduced down to three, Marian Harkin, Declan Bree and John Perry. They’ ll all be hoping to capitalise on the weakness of Fine Gael.
Harkin has had plenty of national media exposure which she’ ll be hoping will be to her benefit and the former TD and MEP will be expecting big things in an electiion aftermath if she gets elected.
Fine Gael courted her with a promise of a Minister for State role but she backed away and it’ ll be interesting to see how she will fare if, as seems likely, it’ ll be a Fianna Fáil led Government
Fianna Fáil will surely not make her a junior minister and ignore the claims of Deputy MacSharry?
Harkin may well become, depending on numbers, just a backbencher allied to a loose rural alliance with little influence on policy.
For Bree, it’s his 11 th general election campaign and the veteran socialist surprised most commentators with a good showing in 2016 with 5.21% of the first preference vote ending up on a final tally of 5,512 votes before being eliminate late on.
A rise of just three or four per cent will put him in the reckoning. Perry has a major fight on his hands having lost his seat in 2016. First preference of 7.06% was steady though and he’ ll not throw in the towel easy.
Will be boosted to an extent by the disastrous decision by Fine Gael to expel his wife and son from the party for supporting his campaign.