Syria cease-fire approaches with Assad emboldened, opposition wary
BEIRUT (Reuters) – An emboldened President Bashar Assad vowed on Monday to take back all of Syria, hours before the start of a cease-fire brokered by the United States and Russia, which Assad’s opponents described as stacked in his favor.
In a gesture loaded with symbolism, state television showed Assad visiting Darayya, a Damascus suburb long held by rebels but recaptured last month after fighters there surrendered in the face of a crushing siege. The Syrian leader performed holiday prayers alongside other officials in a bare hall in a Darayya mosque.
“The Syrian state is determined to recover every area from the terrorists,” Assad said in an interview broadcast by state media, flanked by his delegation at an otherwise deserted road junction.
He made no mention of the ceasefire agreement, but said the army would continue its work “without hesitation, regardless of any internal or external circumstances.”
The cease-fire is due to take effect at sundown, and includes improved humanitarian aid access and joint US and Russian targeting of hardline Islamists. But it faces big challenges, including how to separate nationalist rebels from the jihadists.
The rebels say the deal benefits Assad, who appears stronger than at any point since the early days of the war, with military support from Russia and Iran.
The capture of Darayya, a few kilometers from Damascus, followed years of siege and bombardment, and has helped the government secure important areas to the southwest of the capital near an air base.
Backed by Russian air power and Iranian-backed militias, the army has also completely encircled the rebel-held half of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city before the war, which has been divided into government and opposition-held zones for years.
In the footage of his visit to Darayya, Assad, 51, appeared to be driving his own vehicle, a silver SUV, as he arrived at the mosque. He smiled and waved as he entered.
Darayya was evacuated following a local agreement between the army and rebels that let fighters escape to a rebel stronghold while civilians were sent to another government-held area. The UN’s aid chief, Stephen O’Brien, voiced “extreme concern,” emphasizing the harsh conditions that led to the surrender. The government has sought similar deals in other besieged areas.
Russia’s intervention in the Syrian war a year ago has tilted it in Assad’s favor, after rebel advances had posed a growing threat to his rule. It has also given Russia decisive leverage over international diplomacy that has thus far failed to make any progress towards a political settlement.
The Russia-US deal is the second attempt to bring about a cease-fire this year, after an agreement concluded in February collapsed as each side blamed the other for violations.
Washington, which supports some rebel factions, has been seeking to refocus the fighting in Syria on Islamic State, which still controls swathes of the country and has not been included in any cease-fires.
Fighting raged on several key frontlines on Monday, including Aleppo and the southern province of Quneitra.
“There are no signs we are going to a truce so far,” said Rami Abdulrahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors the conflict.
The Syrian war has killed hundreds of thousands of people and forced 11 million people from their homes in the world’s worst refugee crisis. The new truce has official support from countries on both sides, including both Iran, Assad’s ally, and Turkey, a major sponsor of the insurgency against him.
Under the agreement, Russian-backed government forces and opposition groups, which are supported by the United States and Gulf states, would halt fighting as a confidence building measure.
During this time, opposition fighters will have the chance to separate from terrorist groups in areas such as Aleppo.
But distinguishing rebels protected by the cease-fire from jihadists who are excluded from it is tricky, particularly with regards to a group formerly called the Nusra Front, which was al-Qaida’s Syria branch until it changed its name in July.
The group, which now calls itself Jabhet Fateh al-Sham, is playing a vital role in the battle for Aleppo allied with other rebel factions, but is still outside the cease-fire.
The United States has said the deal includes an agreement that the government will not fly combat missions in an agreed area on the pretext of hunting fighters from the former Nusra Front. However, the opposition says a loophole would allow the government to continue air strikes for up to nine days after the cease-fire takes effect.
Nationalist rebel groups, including factions backed by Assad’s foreign enemies, wrote to Washington on Sunday to express deep concerns over the truce. The letter, seen by Reuters, said the opposition groups would “cooperate positively” with a cease-fire but believed the terms favored Assad.
It said the cease-fire shared the same flaw that allowed the government to scrap the previous truce: a lack of guarantees, monitoring mechanisms or sanctions against violators.