Investors upbeat on data and Fed, but wary of Trump

NEW YORK (Reuters) – In an ordinary world, a US Federal Reserve meeting, jobs data and a hefty number of earnings reports this week should provide investors with welcome distraction from speculation about the US President’s policy plans.

But the current world is less than ordinary, and in the second week after his inauguration as US president, the likelihood is that Donald Trump’s voice will still ring louder in investors’ ears than economic data and the words of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen.

Wall Street has already bet on solid economic data, strong earnings and the pace of Fed interest-rate hikes. But investors are still uncertain how to bet on the president.

“Wall Street’s already figured out that the recovery is in place, that the Fed is going to start getting aggressive,” said Robert Phipps, a director at Per Stirling Capital Management in Austin. “What they haven’t figured out yet is exactly who is Donald Trump.”

While stocks have risen since the November 8 election on hopes for tax cuts, lighter regulation and fiscal stimulus, investors are still waiting for evidence Trump has the willingness and ability to follow through on his pro-business campaign promises.

On top of this, adding to the uncertainty are fear of his threats to slap massive tariffs on imports and his comments on China’s currency policy.

Fed fund futures show bets on a 96% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged when it ends its two-day meeting on Wednesday, according to Reuters data.

Investors will watch for hints of policy makers’ plans for the rest of 2017. If their language indicates faster-than-expected hikes, “the equity rally could pause as investors recalibrate,” said Paul Christopher, the head global-market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute in St. Louis.

But investors don’t see the Fed rocking the boat this week, at least until it has some clarity on Trump’s policies.

“Like many of us, the Fed is probably waiting to see what is going to come of all the new policies and changes that can be expected out of the new administration,” said Tim Dreiling, a senior portfolio manager at the Private Client Reserve at US Bank in Kansas City.

Strong fourth-quarter earnings reports and forecasts have been part of the driver for the S&P 500’s 10% increase since November 4, and many big companies are due to report this week.

A few weeks into reporting season, analysts now expect quarterly earnings to have risen 6.8%, up from an expectation of a 6.1% gain on January 1, according to Reuters data. This growth rate would be the fastest in two years.

JOBS DATA

On Friday, the US is expected to report 171,000 new nonfarm jobs were created in January, up from 156,000 in December. Unless the number is below 100,000 or above 300,000, stocks will likely not move sharply, according to Wells Fargo’s Christopher.

“If the data coming in are unremarkable, it would tend to turn attention back to Washington,” he said.

Aside from seeking clarity on Trump’s pro-business policies, the market will also watch for signs of whether the president will help or hurt foreign trade. For example, the administration has said it would tax imports from Mexico to help pay for a new wall to secure the border. But such a tax would push inflation higher, nudging the Fed closer to tightening policy.

Investors are also nervous of the implications if Trump officially declares China a currency manipulator, as he has implied he might do.

The best-case scenario would be that he instead sits down to negotiate trade concessions with the world’s second-biggest economy, said Wells Fargo’s Christopher.

“I think Trump is serious about getting things done,” he said. “But he does have to reckon with the fact that even as the most powerful person in the world, he does have to work with others.”