Mossad’s Yossi Cohen goes to war with coronavirus and Iran

When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced late Tuesday night that Mossad Director Yossi Cohen was taking over the country’s efforts to purchase medical equipment abroad, it was not a huge surprise.

Already last week, Cohen succeeded in bringing to Israel 100,000 test kits, with an estimated four million more on the way.

The Jerusalem Post learned at the time that the kits were obtained from countries which Israel does not have diplomatic relations with (later reported by al Jazeera to be moderate Arab countries in the Persian Gulf), one reason why the Mossad took the lead.

Since then, there are other eye-popping medical purchases on the way being handled by Cohen and the Mossad, because the spy agency has a global reach and ability to cut through red tape unmatched by any other Israeli agency.

It is also not a surprise that Netanyahu would turn to

Cohen for a mission of the utmost primacy after the Mossad chief has led dramatic and daring efforts against Iran for years.

Even as Cohen takes on the coronavirus crisis, he appears dedicated to being ready for “the day after” it has wrapped up – because all of the same national security challenges confronting Israel, especially

Iran, will remain serious dangers.

It’s estimated that the Mossad chief’s view is even that with all the changes the coronavirus will cause, much of what makes the world go around and of long-term rivalries between nations will continue.

Tracking and stopping Iran’s nuclear program and terror activities in the Middle East remains Cohen’s top objective.

How great is the danger posed to Israel by the Islamic Republic at this point?

Numbers and dates help tell the story.

On January 14, IDF Chiefof-staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi said that Iran would not obtain enough enriched uranium for a

nuclear missile (around 1,000 kilograms) before December, and that it would need another year beyond that to have the capability to fire the missile.

By March 4, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had reported that the ayatollahs already had enough low-enriched nuclear material for 1.5 nuclear bombs, if they chose to enrich the material to weaponized levels.

HOW WAS the IDF prediction so far off, and why was Israel’s response to Iran crossing this key threshold so deafeningly silent?

There are multiple pieces to the answer.

Over time, Cohen and a variety of other national security officials have framed the IDF as viewing Iran as a real threat, but viewing the Iran nuclear issue as less of an imminent threat than the Mossad and Netanyahu. This conforms with repeated IDF official speeches naming Hezbollah as the greatest shortterm threat.

Regarding the overlap with Netanyahu, Cohen seems to very much maintain his own independent personal view, but it just so happens that he and Netanyahu’s views on the threat posed by Iran mostly coincide.

Cohen has declared in public speeches that Iran is trying to influence the world and become the Middle East region’s hegemon, and there are indications that Cohen believes that while the coronavirus crisis has delayed this threat, it has not reduced it.

Part of the difference between the IDF and the Mossad on Iran is that, even as the Mossad has a global mission, its primary focus and resources are devoted to tracking and combating the Islamic Republic (including in Syria.)

In contrast, the IDF’s resources are split between Hamas, Hezbollah, the West Bank and a variety of other threats along with Iran.

There is another piece to the answer of why not only the IDF was silent when Tehran crossed the low-enriched uranium nuclear threshold, but also why Netanyahu was silent.

This piece is that none of Israel’s intelligence agencies believe that Iran, so far, has reached a decision to break out toward a nuclear weapon.

Cohen would likely say that such a decision would be a critical turning point for Israel – even if it was not ready to fire such a missile. idea that the nuclear agency endorsed all of the intelligence produced by the Mossad’s historic January 2018 operation in the heart of Tehran appropriating many of its nuclear secrets.

The operation led to revelations of exactly what aspects of Iran’s nuclear missile program it was still trying to hide from the IAEA.

It also revealed that the Islamic Republic was concealing nuclear material at a site called Turquzabad.

Cohen seems to see these revelations as having started a ball rolling which set the IAEA on a collision course with Tehran.

The recent public recriminations between the IAEA and Iran have intensified since the ayatollahs are refusing to answer questions about the Turquzabad nuclear material and refusing to grant the agency access to certain new, suspicious sites which the Mossad uncovered.

IN SEPTEMBER 2019, the Post revealed that the Mossad’s biggest accomplishment in its January 2018 operation was to expose what was effectively a map of sites where Iran was likely concealing aspects of its nuclear program.

Cohen would probably say that new IAEA director-general Rafael Mariano Grossi deserves some credit for applying greater pressure on Iran to fulfill its international commitments than his predecessor, Yukiya Amano.

Grossi is ready to rock the boat with the Islamic Republic if it violates its commitments.

In contrast, Amano tried avoiding conflict with Iran over the JCPOA nuclear deal even if it violated its commitments, as long as it was maintaining IAEA inspections. After all, Amano himself signed the agreement.

Cohen thinks that due to the coronavirus crisis, Iran cannot maintain the same pace of uranium enrichment and of its other related nuclear weapons program activities.

He likely believes that Iran is among the hardest hit by the crisis and that there is no part of the country or the leadership, including Iran’s nuclear experts, which have not been compromised by it.

Under this theory, the combination of the coronavirus crisis, together with the massive sanctions which were already weighing Iran down as the crisis broke, potentially pose the deepest threat to the regime’s stability that it has faced.

Israel’s intelligence community thinks that the crisis is far worse than even official reports, which themselves have painted a horrific picture of death and infection.

However, the Mossad will be ready for whatever kind of Iranian threat emerges from the coronavirus crisis.

SOLEIMANI ASSASSINATION:

It is impossible to discuss trends relating to Iran without addressing the impact of the assassination of Iran’s IRGC Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani on January 3 by the US. But was it only the US? By mid-January, NBC had reported that there had been Israeli assistance to the US in aspects of the targeted killing of Soleimani, a report indirectly confirmed by former defense minister Avigdor Liberman.

The Post understands that there is much more beyond these reports than has been revealed, but that Israel has an interest in keeping its involvement at a low profile – just as it did for around 10 years regarding its attack on Syria’s nuclear reactor.

Still, without revealing more, the New Yorker has reported that Israeli intelligence informed the US in 2018 that Soleimani was trying to stockpile long-range rockets and killer drones in Iraq to establish a new proxy front with Israel.

The report makes it clear that Israeli officials were working with US officials regarding Soleimani long before the year 2020.

SUDAN:

The Mossad is extremely proud of the historic and stunning recent diplomatic progress between Israel and Sudan.

Though Netanyahu gets and deserves much of the public credit, the success was also a product of two other key factors.

Cohen’s repeated efforts – which until the final, successful attempt had not borne fruit and went largely unreported – were key. The timing being ripe on the Sudanese side was another major factor.

Once again though, Cohen came through on a key, complex priority for the country.

US-ISRAEL INTELLIGENCE COOPERATION:

The Mossad is unconcerned about the latest ripples in the US intelligence community after US President Donald Trump fired Joseph Maguire and appointed Richard Grenell as Acting Director of National Intelligence, while also nominating John Ratcliffe to replace Grenell.

Both Grenell and Ratcliffe have been attacked by Trump’s US critics and within the US intelligence community as unqualified, political appointees who will overtly interfere in intelligence processes that are usually left to apolitical career spy agency officials.

To Cohen, his excellent personal relationships with CIA Director Gina Haspel, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and even Trump himself, mean that Israeli bilateral intelligence interests with the US will be kept out of Washington’s internal political battles.

Cohen has also made it clear in a variety of platforms this past year that he is potentially interested in a political career at some point down the road.

Between Iran, Sudan and now his high-profile role in combating the coronavirus, when his turn comes, he will have a long resume to submit for whatever job he seeks. • will impact the labor market, and we are already preparing ourselves for the next stage – the gradual return of the economy to full operations,” Employment Service director-general Rami Gagor said.

“Our estimate is that 20% of all the employees who have exited the workforce will not return to their place of work,” he said.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was expected on Thursday night to consider two emergency plans for financial assistance prepared by the Finance Ministry. Political developments had postponed the adoption of measures to support businesses severely impacted by the coronavirus outbreak.

Finance Ministry director-general Shai Babad refused to share details of the plans with the Knesset Finance Committee on Thursday morning, but Netanyahu was expected to choose one of two plans developed by the Finance Ministry, Channel 13 reported.

According to a “narrow” plan written by the ministry’s Budgets Department, businesses and self-employed workers will be provided with additional government-backed loans worth billions of shekels, similar to a model rolled out during the 2008 financial crisis. Businesses forced to close will be exempt from paying municipal taxes for several months, in a move worth NIS 1.5 billion, and local authorities will receive compensation for losses associated with the decision.

An alternative, wider plan reportedly has been developed by National Economic Council chairman Avi Simhon and Likud MK Nir Barkat. It replaces loans with grants worth billions of shekels per month.

The Finance Ministry already has provided NIS 40b. in economic aid to combat the crisis, including NIS 10b. for individuals seeking unemployment benefits, NIS 8b. in low-interest loans for small and medium-sized businesses and regulatory relief measures valued at NIS 20b., Babad told the Finance Committee.

Describing the outbreak as “one of the biggest, if not the biggest, crisis” since the founding of the state, he presented the financial impact of a range of containment scenarios. A partial shutdown of the economy for five weeks would increase the fiscal deficit to 6.5%, while a full shutdown of the economy for as long as 12 weeks would increase the deficit to 15.5%, he said.

Most Israelis, 2,502 at last count, had mild cases of the coronavirus, sixty-seven were in moderate condition, and 70 had recovered, the Health Ministry reported Thursday.

The latest victims were a 91-year-old woman who was hospitalized at Wolfson Medical Center in Holon, an 89-year-old woman who was treated at Hadassah-University Medical Center in Jerusalem’s Ein Kerem and an 83-year-old man at Mayanei Hayeshua Medical Center in Bnei Brak.

Part of the reason for the surging numbers of sick people is that Israel has increased the number of people who are tested for the virus. Until March 25, Israel had tested some 33,000 people, but it increased from an average of 1,000 tests per day to more than 5,000.

About 6% of those screened for COVID-19 have tested positive since testing began last month. As more tests are being done, an average of 9% of people tested are being diagnosed with the virus.

If the percentage of infected people keeps rising to 10% or 12%, then Israel will become among the worst countries in the world in terms of infections as a percentage of the population.

Of specific concern are elderly patients. Some 26,000 people living in geriatric centers are at the greatest risk, Bar Siman Tov said.

“We are trying to bring Home Front Command into these institutions,” he said.

“We requested assistance from the Defense Ministry.”

More than 500 citizens who entered quarantine based on Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) technological surveillance tested positive for the coronavirus. If not for its efforts locating these persons, they could have infected many more people on an exponential basis, the Shin Bet said in a statement.

The Mossad and the Defense Ministry delivered 500,000 coronavirus testing kits to Israel on Thursday night.

National Security Council head Meir Ben-Shabbat said during the meeting it was not prepared for the coronavirus crisis.

“We had to formulate the management mechanism on the go,” he said. “These are not perfect decisions… There is no official format for how the government should behave in a situation like this.”

“Public confidence in the system is critical,” said Finance Committee chairman Ofer Shelah (Blue and White). “Every answer is more worrying than the previous one... The government does not have a national, economic and health strategy for managing our lives beyond Passover, and basic shortages are not being addressed,” he said.

Yonah Jeremy Bob contributed to this story. •