Iran’s Syria project grinds to a halt

It has become an almost nightly occurrence. Syrian social media watchers await the explosions from airstrikes that are likely to occur. From villages near Deir Ezzor and Al Bukamal, to 500 km. north to the Aleppo countryside and then 400 km. south to Damascus, those watching Syria’s skies have become used to aerial bombardment.

The night of May 4 was no different. Syria’s SANA state media reported its air defenses confronting an Israeli attack near Aleppo before midnight. Those details were picked up by pro-Hezbollah and pro-Iranian media networks. Then, an hour later, more reports emerged from the Euphrates River valley of explosions along the road that runs from Deir Ezzor to Al Bukamal on the Iraqi border. Rumors circulated of Iranian-backed militias being targeted. Later reports would indicate that Iranians were killed in the strikes.

May 4 was a transformative night in two weeks that have seen at least five airstrikes on Syria. These include an April 20 airstrike near Palmyra, April 27 airstrikes at Mazzeh airport in Damascus, rocket fire near Quneitra on April 30 and the explosion of a warehouse south of Homs on May 1. If we look back a little further, local Syrians also reported strikes that ripped apart Iran’s Imam Ali base on March 11 near Al Bukamal, a major attack on Shayrat airbase in Homs on March 31 and an airstrike that missed a Hezbollah vehicle on April 15 near the Lebanese border. There were other incidents in Homs on March 5, February 27 near the Golan Heights and January 9 near Al Bukamal. The airstrikes have targeted Hezbollah, Iranian-backed militias, warehouses where Iran stocks weapons and munitions and bases that Iran and its allies use in Syria.

In short: This has not been a good year for Iran in Syria. However, Iran’s media is wary of discussing the full extent of the blows Iran’s project in Syria has been hammered with. Instead it has been pushing a different narrative: Iran blames the US for increased ISIS attacks in Iraq. Over the past week, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq suffered casualties at the hands of ISIS, which has exploited the pandemic and instability in Iraq to carry out assaults. Iran’s Fars News, Press TV and its proxies in Iraq blame the US for the attacks. Iran has also been pressuring the US in the Persian Gulf, sending boats to harass the US Navy. On April 22, US President Donald Trump warned Iran that the US would sink the boats. Iran, in turn, launched a military satellite it says can be used to spy on its adversaries, including the US and Israel.

Iran seeks to draw focus from losses in Syria by bragging about its new drone programs, including anti-tank missiles that it designed by copying, at least on the outside, Israeli anti-tank missiles. Iran’s ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah, has had to make due with its own attempt to respond to the strikes. It sent a small model airplane drone over the border on March 25. After two Hezbollah members were killed on February 27 and April 5, and following an airstrike on a Hezbollah vehicle on April 15, it launched an operation to sabotage three parts of the fence between Israel and Lebanon. But overall Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s speeches have not said anything unique about Israel in recent weeks. He has concentrated on a budget crisis in Lebanon and anger over Germany blacklisting Hezbollah.

In short: Hezbollah has suffered setbacks and focuses its rhetoric at home.

The Syrian regime is in an even tougher spot than Iran and Hezbollah. A key businessman and cousin of Syrian President Bashar Assad has become a critic. Rami Makhlouf released videos over the last week slamming the regime, a rare criticism from an insider. Meanwhile rumors swirl in Syria that Russian-supplied air defense has not prevented recent airstrikes, and that the regime should use Chinese radars instead. In addition, there are rumors of a rift with Iran. All this undermines Damascus and its already weak position. Between the summer of 2018 and the fall of 2019, Damascus thought it was winning. It had reconquered the south from the rebels near the Golan swiftly. It had retaken swaths of the north and the US had decided to withdraw. But the US withdrawal stalled, and the regime’s attempt to retake Idlib in the north failed and almost grew into conflict with Turkey.

Iran, too, had thought that things might improve in Syria. Back in the fall of 2018, Syrian air defense shot down a Russian military plane in the midst of an Israeli airstrike. Russia was angry and Syria got S-300 air defense systems. Damascus fanned stories that Russia had “prevented” Israeli airstrikes after that, with claims circulating into September 2019 that “Russia prevents Israeli airstrikes.” Criticism of Israel came from Moscow in December 2018 and April 2019, and misinformation clogged up some media in the Middle East with lurid reports of “Russian Su-35 jets scrambled to stop Israel over Syria” in December 2019. The real story was more complex with Moscow. In November 2019 the Russian Foreign Ministry revealed details about alleged Israeli strikes on Syria. These included a November 12 incident where Islamic Jihad member Akram Al-Ajouri was targeted, another attack on November 18 near Al Bukamal and a November 19 attack near Damascus. Then cruise missiles were fired at targets near Damascus on November 20. Russia also said that Israel has “reportedly crossed Iraqi and Jordanian airspace.”

The Russian criticism came after Iraq’s Prime Minister had also slammed Israel for alleged airstrikes in September. Iran’s plans for Iraq, like Syria, appeared to unravel with the new year. Last year it was trying to push the US out using proxies and rocket attacks. It also sent ballistic missiles to Iraq and was pleased when the border crossing at Al Bukamal and Al Qaim re-opened at the end of September. But Iran suffered setbacks with protests in Iraq and US airstrikes against its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani.

If one sketches an arc of changes from the fall of 2019 to the spring of 2020, there have been rapid setbacks for Iran in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Whatever hegemony it thought it was creating in 2017 and 2019, sending militias into Kirkuk, helping the Syrian regime retake land and seeking to humiliate the US in Syria while supplying Hezbollah with precision guided munitions, might be in tatters. Its Soleimani replacement, Esmail Ghaani, has offended Iran’s friends in Iraq, Assad is losing friends at home and Hezbollah has been called upon to help in Syria and Iraq when it is nearing bankruptcy at home. In crisis there can be opportunity, but with apparent setbacks for Iran there can also be miscalculation. • large payloads for Hezbollah deep into Israeli territory.

Senior IDF officers, as well as politicians, say that Israel’s military has the ability to end any future conflict with Hezbollah quickly and will completely destroy the group’s capabilities and infrastructure, even if that means incurring civilian casualties.

But, while Israeli jets can wreak havoc on the group far from Israel’s borders, the defense establishment knows that no war can be won without boots on the ground. The IDF has not conducted a proper ground maneuver in enemy territory since troops entered Gaza in 2009 during Operation Cast Lead.

The Hezbollah of 2020 is not the Hezbollah of 2000, or even 2006.

On the eve of the Second Lebanon War in 2006, when the two foes fought a deadly 34-day war in which both sides lost hundreds of fighters and hundreds of civilians were killed, Hezbollah had some 15,000 rockets and missiles and fired 4,000 of them at Israel.

More than a decade later, the group has expanded its arsenal with more than 130,000 rockets and missiles of all sorts of ranges and payloads. With the help of its patron Iran, the group also continues to work on its precision missile project. But despite the effort and years invested, the organization has only several dozen such missiles.

Nevertheless, security officials believe that in the next war, the terrorist group will aim to fire some 1,500-2,000 rockets per day until the last day of the conflict. With more than 40,000 fighters organized in battalions and brigades, Hezbollah fighters have gained immeasurable battlefield experience fighting in Syria.

The cross-border terror tunnels discovered and destroyed by the IDF last year are another part of the group’s attack plans. The tunnels, the largest of which the author visited, were significantly more advanced than tunnels built by terror groups in the Gaza Strip.

Hezbollah’s flagship tunnel began in the southern Lebanese village of Ramiya and stretched one km. before it infiltrated several dozen meters into northern Israel, close to the communities of Zarit and Shetula.

The Ramiyah tunnel, which Hezbollah had been in the process of completing, had been dug at a depth of 80 meters and had 20 stories of stairs. The tunnel, which took Hezbollah several years to dig, also contained railroads to transport equipment, garbage, and was equipped with lighting equipment, ventilation and ladders.

It was astounding and only one of six. And while the IDF says it has destroyed all cross-border tunnels, there are others which have been dug but have not yet crossed into Israeli territory.

Yet.

And with the civil war winding down, Iran and Hezbollah have been able to focus more of their energy on other targets, with Israel topping the list.

But neither side wants war. At least now.

Indeed, Hezbollah’s leader Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah had to apologize after the end of the 2006 war for the ambush which set everything off. He has since promised the Lebanese people that he is doing all he can to prevent another war with the IDF.

Senior defense sources have said that Nasrallah is a patient, calculating and smart commander willing to take the long route.

“It’s a fact that we are harming his group. It might be under the radar and not published by the media, but he’s heard about it. But he’s done nothing to us in return,” one source told The Jerusalem Post.

Of course, Hezbollah has not been waiting around and has responded to Israeli operations which have targeted its operatives. In mid-April the group sent Israel a message by cutting several holes in the border fence after the IDF reportedly carried out a drone strike against a Jeep carrying Hezbollah operatives.

But nobody was killed in the drone strike on the Jeep, and no Hezbollah operative crossed into Israeli territory.

The message from both sides was clear.

In September, after the IDF carried out a deadly strike against Hezbollah operatives planning a drone attack against targets in northern Israel from Syria, the group fired an antitank missile towards an IDF ambulance driving close to the border community of Avivim.

That time Hezbollah aimed to kill IDF troops. None were killed in the attack, but it led to a spike in tensions not seen in years.

The IDF, which has focused much of its covert operations in preventing Hezbollah from acquiring game-changing weaponry, has nevertheless been deterred from striking the group on its home turf.

Israel doesn’t want a similar situation in Syria where it currently has air and intelligence superiority over its enemies. It’s better to deal with Hezbollah when it’s still small rather than when it’s strong and ready to strike.

Israel’s war-between-wars campaign against Iran and its proxies, namely Hezbollah, began close to a decade ago and has seen action on a weekly basis in recent years, with thousands of airstrikes taking out infrastructure and equipment.

And while senior Israeli defense sources recently said that Iran has reduced its forces significantly in Syria, according to a Western diplomat who visits Syria regularly and quoted by Foreign Policy, Hezbollah fighters are doubling down in the Golan Heights and plan to embed themselves as part of the Syrian Arab Army in the south of the country.

Hezbollah has always had a presence in Syria but has recently grown its influence in areas it wasn’t active in before, so that Israel will be deterred from striking these areas like it is deterred from striking the group in Lebanon. In July 2019 the IDF said that the group has begun an attempt to establish and entrench a covert force in the Syrian Golan Heights, designed to act against Israel when given the order.

Called “The Golan Project,” Israel has been blamed for several strikes targeting operatives belonging to the project.

“If no one bothers Hezbollah in the Golan then it will continue to grow and bring in more capabilities to threaten the homefront,” a senior IDF source told the Post. “It doesn’t matter if Iran is hundreds of kilometers away from Israel, if Hezbollah has local operatives on the Golan who can act against Israel.”

But “Nasrallah is walking a tightrope,” said another defense source, explaining that the group is not only feeling a squeeze on its finances due to the economic crisis in Iran, but thousands of Hezbollah fighters have been killed fighting in Syria for the Assad regime.

“What does Hezbollah want? How much power do they really have and how much face can they save in another war with Israel?” he asked.

While the Gaza Strip has for years preoccupied the IDF, with several military operations and dozens of rounds of deadly violence in the last two years alone, Israel’s northern front has once again grabbed the top spot in its list of priorities.

Because more than 20 years after the last IDF officer – Benny Gantz – locked the gates with Lebanon, Hezbollah has turned into the military’s greatest foe. • to adopt the ministry’s layout and return to regular preschool activities,” Education Minister Rafi Peretz said on Tuesday.

“I instructed the professional staff to work with maximum efficiency to reach a high level of readiness by Sunday,” he said. “The parents will return to work, and thus the economy will return to activity. And the children will return to their daily routine, with the utmost strict adherence to the Health Ministry guidelines.”

However, the plan is complicated for working parents, as children will only be in school from 7:55 a.m. until 2 p.m. The classes will be broken into two consistent groups of up to 18 students, which will only attend school three days a week.

While at school, the children will be divided into two additional groups that will learn and play separately in different areas of the classroom and playground. The staff will be allowed to move students from one area to another, with an emphasis on following the rules of hygiene, especially hand washing.

Students will be asked to bring their own food and eat it at separate tables two meters apart.

Education Ministry director-general Shmuel Abuav said he expects that only around half of the parents will send their children to preschool on Sunday due to the restricted schedule, but said that he and his team are working diligently to open after-school programs within the next two weeks.

On Sunday, Israeli students in grades 1-3 started returning to school. The government confirmed Monday night that if the coronavirus infection rate continues to decline, students in grades 4-10 will return to school by June 1.

A student enrolled in the special education program at a Talmud Torah in Jerusalem was discovered last week to be infected with coronavirus, Israeli media revealed on Tuesday. All students and teachers who were in contact with him had to enter 14 days of isolation. The boy was sent to school and his parents signed a release that he was healthy, although the mother was diagnosed with coronavirus and she knew her son had a fever.

Also on Tuesday, the Western Wall plaza reopened to worshipers, who must have their temperature checked and their personal details recorded before entering the holy space. They are also being asked to wear masks and maintain a two-meter distance from each other while praying.

The plaza was split into a number of prayer complexes, allowing some 300 people to congregate in groups of no more than 19 – since a group of 20 could be split into two quorums of 10 each. Should the prayer areas get full, worshipers will be requested to wait outside the entrances, with the required distances between them, until space becomes available.

Families celebrating bar and bat mitzvahs can return to celebrate at the Western Wall in accordance with regulations as well.

Lag B’omer is not expected to be celebrated under a full closure, but there will be increased enforcement of the prohibition against congregating. The government pushed off an expected vote on those restrictions on Tuesday and should convene today.

Israel’s national airline El Al, however, will extend its halt on all scheduled flights to and from Israel until May 30, the airline told the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange on Tuesday, with the exception of cargo flights and one-off services.

The airline said the decision was based on new measures announced by the Health Ministry on Monday, which did not include lifting the requirement on self-quarantine of passengers arriving in Israel or enabling non-citizens to enter the country.

El Al will extend its halt on all scheduled flights to and from Israel until May 30, the airline told the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange on Tuesday, with the exception of cargo flights and one-off services.

The Israeli flag carrier said the decision was based on new measures announced by the Health Ministry on Monday, which did not include lifting the requirement for self-quarantine of passengers arriving in Israel or enabling non-citizens to enter the country. El Al announced on Monday that it would operate “special” return flights from Ben-Gurion Airport to London’s Heathrow and Paris’ Charles de Gaulle airports on May 11 and May 14.

Eytan Halon contributed to this report. •

• Malls and open-air markets open (no more than one person per two meters; regular disinfection required; no sitting for the purpose of eating)

• Gyms open

May 10:

• Day-care, preschool and kindergarten resumes

• Up to 50 people can gather

May 17:

• Sports in groups of up to 20 people - no contact

• Museums open

May 31:

• Up to 100 people can gather

• Grades four through 10

return to school

• After-school activities and

youth groups resume

• Swimming pools and parks

open

June 14:

• No limit on gathering

• Restaurants and cafes open

• Flights (limited) resume

• Schools can operate unrestricted

• Higher education resumes

• Theaters and movie houses open

Who is at greatest risk of developing a serious case of COVID-19?

People who suffer from underlying medical conditions are at highest risk for developing a severe case of COVID19, according to the Health Ministry.

On Tuesday, the ministry shared what these pre-existing medical conditions are: heart disease, high blood pressure, diabetes, BMI of 30 or above (obesity), any surgery (other than birth) in the last three years and smoking for 10 more years.

The risk factors affect people based on their age, the Health Ministry said.

People at highest risk are those under the age of 49 who suffer from four or more underlying conditions, people 50-69 who suffer from two or more and those over the age of 70 with any one risk factor.

People over the age of 70 with three or more conditions are considered to be in grave danger and should stay home except in cases of emergencies, the ministry warned. • change your principles if you lose, and you definitely don’t change them if you win, Lapid told the MKs. “This isn’t an emergency government. Last night, the prime minister said in a press conference that we’re on the way out of the emergency situation. He killed the excuse for creating this government.”

During his speech, Lapid addressed the loss of public trust in the political system.

“You don’t fight corruption from within,” he said. “If you’re inside, you’re part of the problem. You can’t put integrity on hold for 18 months and then come back to it. It can’t go on like this. That will be the first task of the opposition: To restore public faith in this house and prove to the public that there are politicians who take their values and their promises seriously.”

Lapid attacked the formation of the government and said that instead of every shekel going to save the economy, it is being used to provide MKs with unnecessary jobs.

“People have lost their jobs, their livelihood, in the past weeks and are drowning in debt,” he said. “They are looking at you and can’t believe their eyes. It’s at their expense, using their money. What you’re forming isn’t a government, it’s an entire job agency – a corrupt carnival of jobs under the auspices of the coronavirus.”

Once the bills are passed on Thursday, Netanyahu will submit the signatures of the necessary 61 MKs calling for him to form the government to President Reuven Rivlin, who will give him a two-week mandate that will end on May 25. The Knesset speaker can then postpone the swearing-in ceremony for one week, making June 1 the last day a government can be formed.

Army Radio reported on Tuesday morning that Netanyahu and Gantz had agreed to complete the government’s formation by next Thursday, May 14. Spokesmen for both men denied the report.

“We are doing everything we can in order to swear in a government as early as possible,” a Likud spokesman said.

Yonah Jeremy Bob contributed to this report# •