Iraqi PM gambles on Gulf support amid Iran’s influence
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi has to toe a fine line as he goes hat in hand to the Gulf hoping for more support from Riyadh and the UAE. However, he knows the US is contemplating reentering nuclear discussions with Iran, and he knows pro-Iranian militias and political parties control much of Iraq.
How far can he go to court the Gulf? Can the Gulf balance Iran in Iraq?
Months ago there were rumors in Iraq about increasing investment from Saudi Arabia. This has caused controversy among pro-Iran Shi’ites who not only oppose Riyadh but have accused Gulf states of supporting Sunni Islamist extremists in the past in Iraq. That may no longer be true as the Gulf states want stability in Iraq, but it is still the Iranian talking point.
Iran’s friends in Iraq argue that the Gulf is normalizing relations with Israel and that Gulf states are puppets of the US, while Iran is “resisting” Saudi Arabia and Israel. Toward that end they are in favor of resisting Gulf money.
Kadhimi disagrees. Over the past five years the US has tried to bring Iraq closer to Riyadh. This was accomplished despite almost two decades of acrimony after the Gulf War. Borders were reopened, and flights resumed along with diplomacy. Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr even met with the Saudis in 2017 and allegedly encouraged less incitement against Riyadh.
Kadhimi, who has had a difficult time since coming to office last year, arrived in Saudi Arabia several days ago. The pro-Iranian militias have threatened him and continue to attack US bases.
Kadhimi appears unable to control the militias, but he wants strategic dialogue with the US and hopes for more support from the Biden administration. He might like to balance Iran, but it’s unclear how.
He said on Sunday that his visit to the UAE is part of his government’s approach to strengthen the country’s ties with the Arab region, according to The National in the UAE, where Kadhimi was received by Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, deputy supreme commander of the Armed Forces.
“The UAE remains committed to supporting stability and progress for Iraq and its people,” Sheikh Mohammed said.
Despite the talk of fraternal relations, it is unclear what more the UAE and Riyadh can do in Iraq. The country is divided, but the Gulf states might choose to help rebuild areas damaged in the war against ISIS or invest in the Kurdistan Region.