The Natanz incident and getting Iran’s goat
There’s a negotiating strategy used in the Knesset during budget debates called “the goat,” which the Iranian regime seems to be very familiar with – though they probably have another name for it.
It’s been a few years since there was a real budget debate in Israel, so here’s a reminder of what “the goat” means: There’s a Jewish folktale about a man who complained to the rabbi that his family was too cramped in their tiny oneroom shack.
The rabbi told the man to bring his chicken into the house. The man went back to the rabbi and said they feel even more cramped. The rabbi told the man to bring his goat into the house. The man went back to the rabbi and said the house is now so cramped, they cannot live in it for one more day.
The rabbi told the man to put the chicken and goat outside. The man went back to the rabbi and said he now feels like he has plenty of space.
The moral of the story is supposed to be to appreciate what you have because it could always be worse.
But in Israeli budget negotiations, “the goat” represents a tactic of adding more and more demands so that when you remove them, you look like you’re making concessions to get what you actually wanted in the first place.
That is exactly what Iran seemed to be doing over the weekend.
On Friday, the US and Iran continued indirect negotiations for their return to the Iran deal. Though some of the other parties to the Iran deal expressed optimism that an agreement can be reached, Iran maintained its stance that all post-2015 sanctions be removed before it takes any steps to return to compliance with the deal’s nuclear limitations. Soon after, a senior US State Department official said if Iran doesn’t budge, then the sides will reach an impasse.
The next day, Iran further breached the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action by launching advanced uranium enrichment machines at the underground nuclear facility in Natanz.
This seems like it was a gambit by Iran to have a longer list of items that it can scale back from in negotiations, while still ending up closer to a nuclear bomb than the JCPOA originally allowed for it to reach.
Then, less than a day later, there was a mysterious power outage in Natanz that derailed the whole thing.
Though Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization confirmed that an “accident” occurred at the facility, there was no official acknowledgment of foul play. Still, some Iranian lawmakers have blamed it on “sabotage” and “infiltration,” Iranian journalist Abas Aslani tweeted on Sunday.
There are indications that the disruptions in Natanz were the result of a cyberattack, and – as always – all eyes are on Israel when these things happen.
And Iran has yet to recover from recent “incidents,” such as a July 2020 explosion that set back its nuclear program.
Iran, of course, claims its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. But its adversaries in the region and beyond are
Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. The UAE is the only nation with which a tax treaty is currently being drafted.
Both countries have much to gain from increased commercial relations. Israel sees the UAE as a global trading hub that would give it greater access to Asian markets. The UAE sees Israel as a nexus with the West, and Emirati investors are hungry for lucrative investments in Israeli companies, particularly in the tech sector.
Existing flights between the two countries resumed this month after Israel ended its pandemic airport closures. Business travelers and tourists want to explore markets that have until recently been forbidden.
Israeli airlines El Al, Israir and Arkia, as well as Emirati-owned flydubai, have all launched regular flights between Tel Aviv and Dubai. Etihad launched the first-ever regular commercial flight to Israel from Abu Dhabi last week. •