Is Cuba in for a change?
Raúl Castro is slated to step down from the Communist Party
For the first time in more than five decades, a leader without the last name Castro is expected to take the helm of Cuba’s ruling party, as officials try to usher through a generational leadership change amid a crushing economic crisis.
Raúl Castro is expected to step down as the Communist Party’s first secretary-general, considered the most powerful political position on the island, during the organization’s Eighth Congress, which is slated to begin Friday.
The transition comes at Cuba’s most trying moment in years. The island is the throes of its worst economic contraction since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Painful economic reforms have sent inflation soaring. Long lines for food have again become commonplace. Trump-era sanctions have reduced access to vital economic lifelines like remittances. And a nascent but increasingly vocal social movement is channeling mounting frustration.
Though billed as “Congress of Continuity,” the Communist Party will be under pressure to accelerate the pace of economic reforms begun a decade ago.
“It’s not just a matter of putting a younger person in that position, it’s a matter of fundamentally changing the system. And there is pressure to do that from some factions, but there’s also a lot of resistance,” said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a think tank based in Washington. “It’s going to be an extremely interesting Congress because it happens in the context of the worst economic situation in 30 years.”
The Communist Party’s official agenda for the congress includes three key items: Castro’s
replacement, which could involve a wider changing of the guard among the top brass after Castro himself said at the 2016 conference that Cuba’s leaders were “too old” and their terms should be limited; a review of economic policies and goals announced in the 2011 congress; and an analysis of the party’s political work.
The party’s 2011 congress was considered a landmark event with the announcement of over 300 economic reforms, including measures to encourage more private initiative and expand private property ownership. The reforms were considered the biggest shake-up to the island’s state-run socialist economy in decades.
But a decade later, many of the ideas introduced are barely getting off the ground.
In January, the government did away with a confusing dual-currency system, eliminating an artificial hard currency called the CUC, or the Cuban convertible peso, and set the official exchange rate at 24 pesos to the dollar – a devaluation of 2,400%. The changes set off a spike in inflation, with some prices rising as much as 500%, for instance, in the case of electricity.
Salaries for state employees and pensioners and the minimum salary were raised to make up for the changes, but the price of food, medicine and other goods rose at a much higher pace. And the pay for some of the workforce and in the informal economy hasn’t increased.
There’s a lot of wishful thinking among Cuba observers that this congress could be less a ritualistic display of support for the principles of the revolution and more a discussion about the need for reforms, perhaps even with a more pragmatic approach given the circumstances, said Gregory Biniowsky, a Canadian lawyer and consultant who’s lived in Cuba for three decades.
BUT DON’T EXPECT any radical change, he said.
“It could be a game-changer,” he said. “It’s not going to be overnight, but it’s going to be a sea change, a fundamental shift, but it won’t happen from one day to the next.”
He said the expectations on the street in different groups, from government officials to Cubans who believe in the socialist system but want change to improve the economy, is that the generational leadership change can strengthen the country and reduce the risk of collapse.
But he also said frustration is at the highest level he’s ever seen, especially among younger generations who have largely only known life in Cuba post-Soviet Union. That’s more than half of the island’s population of about 11 million, and they won’t pay much attention to announcements by the congress unless they have a direct effect on their daily lives.
“The disgruntled young guy on the street will say ‘Oh, they are all the same, the congress or leadership change won’t make a difference,’” he said. “But if you talk to some people in the government who want change, without collapse, I think there’s some open expectation that that a new composition within the Politburo will usher that in.”
Cuba’s Communist Party, founded in 1965, is the only party allowed on the island, and has been trying to diversify its ranks, bringing in younger people, more women and minorities, in a bid to stay relevant. Per state media, the average age of the organization’s professional staff is now 42.5 and over half of the party’s cadre are women. But the top two positions – first and second secretary – are held by Castro, 89, and José Ramón Machado Ventura, 90.
“This will be the Congress of Continuity,” the event’s official convocation announced, “expressed in the gradual and orderly transition of the main responsibilities of the country to new generations.”
Many Cubans aren’t optimistic that a younger leader like current President Miguel DiázCanel, who is widely expected to become the party’s new chief, will bring much change.
Eloy Calunga, a 30-year-old from Santiago de Cuba, the island’s second-largest city, said the congress is out of touch with how most in the country feel. He accused Cuba’s leaders of turning their backs on the people and working only to create wealth for themselves.
“There is no medicine, no food. There’s daily abuse by police everywhere,” he said. “Earlier this year I could eat lunch for 10 pesos, and now I need 50 or more. Most products are out of reach for a majority of Cubans without access to dollars.”
Many will be watching to see whether Diáz-Canel, the 60-year-old civilian president that Castro handpicked three years ago to succeed him, begins to chart his own path as head of the party, without members of the old guard ruling above him. A loyal technocrat, he has stuck close to the core socialist tenets of the revolution, frequently using the hashtag #SomosContinuidad, or #WeAreContinuity in his statements on social media.
For Alejandro Gómez, a graphic designer from Havana, the Castro legacy will continue to have a strong influence in government even with both brothers out.
“There’s a well-structured mechanism that allows the Castro family to continue to govern the country,” he said. To him, the congress is a “show in which the ruling class gets together and wastes tons of paper in surreal plans and unachievable guidelines.”
He said his life has deteriorated “very quickly” since January, and that he’s finding it hard to make a living selling posters to companies.
EVEN IF CASTRO exits public life, he will likely continue to play an outsize role in the party’s leadership and in supporting Diáz-Canel in what’s expected to be a painful time of necessary reform, experts say. The party’s conclave, scheduled for April 16-19 in Havana, will likely shed light on how and how much Castro will participate in the transition that’s expected to give Diáz-Canel more leeway in influencing investment and monetary policy. Though no longer first secretary, Castro could retain a role as a member of the Political Bureau.
Measures to control inflation in the wake of a painful currency reform that was approved a decade ago but only started being implemented recently will likely be discussed at the congress. The monetary reform aims to weaken the peso and make exports more attractive, among other goals, but has had a crushing effect on average Cubans.
“They are going to evaluate the economy during the 2016 to 2020 period, and there isn’t anything that great to say about that time,” said economist Omar Everleny Pérez. “Cuba had very low growth or contraction, falling exports and a weaker agriculture output.”
He said the congress should announce “bold actions,” prioritizing projects that can realistically be approved, such expanding access to the internet, using new financial instruments to refine monetary policy and investing in more renewable energy.
Under Castro, the government began allowing people to buy and sell their cars and homes for the first time in decades, and allowed for more foreign ownership of local businesses. Internet access and cellphones were allowed. But the piecemeal expansion of Cuba’s private sector has been plagued by the island’s suffocating bureaucracy.
“The revolution has created this massive bureaucracy and it doesn’t work for shortterm action,” Biniowsky said. “So you can have a reformist leader and a list of great initiatives, but the bureaucracy won’t let them go through.”
(Miami Herald/TNS)