The butcher of Iran
The clear victor in last week’s Iran’s presidential election was Ebrahim Raisi. Within hours after the election was called, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas had all sent congratulatory wishes to the new Iranian president. As that old expression goes, you can tell a person by the company he keeps.
Much has been written about Raisi. His has been nicknamed “the butcher of Iran,” a well-earned moniker and a reflection of his role in the execution of more than 30,000 Iranian political prisoners in 1988. He is anti-West and was the preferred candidate of the military and of religious leadership. And Raisi was the candidate endorsed by Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. With that support and with that endorsement there was never a doubt as to who the winner of Iran’s election would be.
Raisi is expected to officially assume the role of president in mid-August, and there is already talk of his next position. The thinking is that Raisi is being groomed to succeed the 82-year-old supreme leader after he leaves office or upon his death. The issue of succession was even raised during a presidential debate.
Elections in Iran are labeled by Iranian leadership as free and open, but nothing is further from the truth. The supreme leader is ultimately in control of Iran. Its politics and foreign policy are no exception. If you need proof that the presidential election was, to use the vernacular, rigged, look no further than the process of selecting candidates.
All but seven of the 592 candidates were disqualified from running. Forty of the candidates who registered to stand for election were women. They were immediately disqualified. Only seven
candidates received the nod of approval. Then three of them dropped out, leaving four. And all four of them were extremists, even more extreme than the current regime. The most extreme of them all will be the next president of Iran.
In contrast, the outgoing regime was described as reformers and liberals. But these terms must be understood in the context and language of Iran. The outgoing regime was brutal in its crackdowns against anti-government groups and social media users and organizers. Anyone dressed immodestly was arrested. Journalists and foreigners were arrested. Activists and political prisoners were arrested and executed.
Iranian voters had no alternative candidate to support, so many simply did not vote. Iranian voters wanted to vent their frustrations, so many simply did not vote. Iranian voters wanted to protest
– to protest their lack of options, to protest the oppressive regime, to protest the horrible state of their economy, an economy that Iranian leadership has not been able to repair – so many simply did not go to the polls to vote.
THOSE WHO did vote only made it easier for the grand ayatollah to justify his choice of winner. Those who voted, voted to please the supreme leader. And so, they cast their ballots for Ebrahim Raisi, a man who in televised presidential debates was asked to clarify how he received a doctorate in law while only completing a sixth-grade secular education. He didn’t answer the question, but he did vehemently deny that he has only a sixth-grade education.
The position of president of Iran was not the only post Iranians filled in this election. Some 200,000 seats on local councils and city councils were filled. Six seats in the Iranian parliament were filled. And maybe even more important than the presidential election, the Council of Experts elected six of its 12 seats. It is the Council of Experts that chooses Iran’s supreme leaders, the grand ayatollahs.
Serious leadership around the world is worried. Yet, the P-5+1 has not called off negotiations with Iran to secure a nuclear deal. Outgoing President Rouhani has been quoted as saying that he is convinced the agreement with the P-5 +1 will be signed and in place before the new president transitions into power. He says that he has seen the most recent drafts of the agreement and that all the difficult parts of the agreement with the West have been removed.
Western leadership, including the Biden administration, was hopeful that as a result of its new dialogue and openness, Iran would choose less extreme candidates for the presidential election. But Iran was never interested in more openness. No reformists were chosen to run for the presidency. They are in dialogue only in order to achieve their goals. They want sanctions lifted. They want the ability to produce and sell nuclear technology.
The P-5+1 are mistakenly optimistic. They are Pollyanna-ish in their thinking. Iran will drive the deal and get exactly what it wants and probably more than it expected. And then as president, Ebrahim Raisi will take everything Iran got and do with it what he wants.
It falls to Israel to monitor Iran and to draw up plans that will slow it down. Israel must stop Iran from achieving its nuclear goals. Israel must stop Iran from achieving its goal of becoming a regional leader. Only Israel cares enough. Only Israel is wise enough to see the real Iran.