The Jerusalem Post

Int’l tourism not seen rebounding until 2023


GeneVa (reuters) – Internatio­nal tourism arrivals are set to stagnate this year, except in some Western markets, causing up to $2.4 trillion in losses, a un study said last week, adding the sector is not expected to rebound fully until 2023.

CoVId-19 vaccinatio­n and certificat­es are key to restoring confidence in foreign tourism, which provides a lifeline for many countries, especially small island states that rely heavily on the sector to provide jobs, it said.

In 2020, internatio­nal arrivals plunged by 73% from pre-pandemic levels in 2019, causing estimated losses of $2.4 trillion in tourism and related sectors, according to the report by unCtad and the un’s World tourism organizati­on (unWto).

“the outlook for this year doesn’t look much better,” ralf peters of unCtad’s trade analysis branch told a news conference.

“the first three months were again bad, there was not much traveling happening,” he said.

“there is an expectatio­n of a certain recovery in the second half of the year, at least for north america and europe to a certain extent,” he told reuters, crediting vaccinatio­ns.

the report sets out three scenarios for 2021, showing internatio­nal tourism arrivals forecast to drop by between 63% and 75% from pre-pandemic levels, resulting in losses of between $1.7 trillion and $2.4 trillion.

“In internatio­nal tourism we are at levels of 30 years ago, so basically we are in the 1980s... many livelihood­s are really at threat,” said Zoritsa urosevic, Geneva representa­tive of the madrid-based unWto.

“What we are looking at in the long run is... meeting the 2019 numbers after 2023,” she said.

Sandra Carvao, chief of market intelligen­ce at unWto, said that it would be a “very diverse recovery,” varying by region and by country.

the european union’s digital CoVId-19 certificat­e, due to come into force on thursday, represents the only regional harmonizat­ion to date, she said.

Carvao, referring to travel corridors, said, “We see for example asia-pacific is still one of the most closed regions in the world at this moment – most of the borders in the countries are either totally closed or with significan­t restrictio­ns.”

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