Iran facing battle to stop demographic ‘black hole’
Iran is facing declining birth rates, a growing issue in the last several years, and one on which the Iranian regime is keenly focused. A new report in Iran’s pro-regime Fars News Agency that came out Monday night says the country is facing the prospect of large numbers of families who will only have one child, and that the regime wants to warn the public about this population “black hole,” which may lead to further demographic decline.
Last year, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei made a similar warning against an aging population and demographic decline. At the time, the statistics placed the fertility rate at 1.71 children per woman, which is considered below the replacement rate – meaning that for every two people today, there will be fewer in the future. It also means many families are making the choice to have one child, or perhaps none.
In many Western societies, as well as in other states like China, South Korea and Japan, this trend has already manifested. But for the Iranian regime, which is theocratic, growing the population is important. The declining demographics may be seen as a vote, by the people, against the regime.
The report in Fars was candid in its views, saying that Iranian children now face a future with no siblings, and arguing that this leads to demographic decline as well as also harming society.
Historically, in the 20th century, the issue of the “battle of the births” was a key element of Mussolini’s fascist agenda in Italy, for example, because it was believed that more children lead to a younger society that can produce more such young men for national expansion. For Iran’s regime, this certainly is an issue, because it frequently boasts about its influence in the Middle East and how it is confronting the US and Israel; but if it has internal problems, like ongoing protests, unrest, and an aging population, it won’t be able to fulfill the regime’s desires for controlling the Middle East.
The article says that the aging crisis in Iran is harmful across society “because the development and progress of any society requires young manpower.” A shrinking population would lead to no young manpower and no more fast boats, missiles or drones. The article argues that “three person families” – two parents and one child – will splinter society and lead to a spiral of decline.
“When we look a little more closely at families of three, we realize the bitter and unfortunate truth: children who will be deprived of having uncles, aunts,” reads the report. This is because a single child has no brothers and sisters so their children won’t have “aunts and uncles. According to population experts, if the birth process in the country continues in the same way... in the not so distant years, we will enter a population black hole that may be impossible to get out of.”
SO, IRAN is pushing a multiyear plan to increase births. Considering the fact that most societies that attempted plans like these have failed, Iran has little chance of success under the current regime. If a religious theocracy can’t get people to have children, in the face of endless propaganda, it is unclear how any society would succeed in its stead, without improving the quality of life or prospects of the people.
The belief held by the regime
is that families who have one child will raise problems in society, including “failure, rejection… [not experiencing] the conditions that require mental and emotional maturity; because the real world is not completely in accordance with the wishes and desires of these children and does not meet their expectations, they suffer from frustration and incompatibility.”
Iran’s regime believes the current trend will lead to isolation among these families, bad “attitude and behavior” and bad decisions, “tendency to isolation, depression, weakness in communicating with peers, paying too much attention to computer and solitary games, [and] fear or hatred of being in social groups, are among the characteristics of being an only child.”
The article adds that having siblings can increase social spirit and help people manage relationships. While ostensibly, the regime is arguing that children with siblings will have more “compassion” and ease in communicating and social situations; the overall message links more to the regime’s future challenges.
The regime’s entire investment in this is about its desire to have more young men for the Basij militias and the IRGC, so it can continue its influence in the region and expand its power. Iran invests heavily in long-term goals based mostly on its ability to employ people throughout the region.
This means that it needs more Qasem Soleimanis, the famed IRGC commander, for example. It appears the regime knows that the generation of men such as Soleimani and IRGC Aerospace commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh are fading from the scene, either because they were hit by missiles like Soleimani, or because they simply get older.
Iran may not have a new generation of the kind of men that led it in the 1980s-2000s; the birthrate issue is only one part of the larger battle and the regime is being very candid about its challenges.