Reaching a crisis point?

Ties between Israel and Egypt

Operation Swords of Iron presents unprecedented challenges to the regime in Cairo, unlike any it has encountered before, and certainly not to this extent. Any conflict with Egypt has the potential to limit the IDF’s operational capabilities in Gaza.

Israel and Egypt have experienced numerous ups and downs in their relations since the 1979 signing of the peace agreement between the two states. These include conflicts such as the Lebanon wars, the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood to power following the Arab Spring in 2012, and IDF military operations in Gaza.

The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas serves as another critical examination of these relations, with the potential to inflict substantial harm upon them.

In general, Egypt and Israel share a common objective: to dismantle the military capabilities of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad and, if feasible, to reinstate the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. Interestingly, this aim has the support of several Sunni states in the region, albeit not publicly. It’s worth noting that the Sisi regime has effectively quashed the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Egypt, from which Hamas originated, and has declared it illegal.

It was no coincidence that Cairo refrained from intervening during Operation Protective Edge in 2014, unlike some other players in the Arab world, as it was in Egypt’s interest for Israel to inflict substantial damage on Hamas. Moreover, Egypt took measures to impede Hamas’s smuggling tunnels, though it appears that these efforts were not entirely successful.

However, the war presents Egypt with three primary challenges, some of which are unprecedented and of significant magnitude.

The first challenge is the concern that a substantial number of Palestinians, potentially numbering in the thousands from a population of roughly 2.2 million in Gaza, may attempt to escape the humanitarian crisis by seeking refuge in the Sinai peninsula through the Rafah crossing. Although the crossing is closed, it would be a formidable task for Egypt to deny entry if a significant exodus ensues.

Egypt vividly remembers the events of 2008 when thousands of Palestinians entered Sinai in a state of panic shortly after Hamas assumed control of Gaza, mainly due to a lack of essential resources such as water and fuel. Recent unofficial calls from Israel encouraging Palestinians to seek sanctuary in Sinai have been met with concern and anger in Egypt, prompting official denials from Israel.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his government have unequivocally emphasized their commitment to safeguarding Egypt’s national security and sovereign borders, but there is undeniable anxiety regarding the possibility that Western proposals may emerge for the resettlement of Palestinian refugees in Sinai.

So far, Egypt has already rebuffed American requests to accept Palestinians from Gaza, yet recent reports indicate that the Egyptian army is creating a “buffer zone” near Rafah to absorb potential refugees.

The second challenge revolves around Egypt’s role in the current crisis. Traditionally, Egypt has viewed itself as the most suitable mediator between Israel and Hamas, owing to its geographical proximity to Gaza and its historical involvement in Palestinian affairs.

Egypt has played a significant part in mediating and achieving ceasefires during past conflicts, such as operations Cast Lead, Pillar of Defense, and Protective Edge, under leaders like Hosni Mubarak in 2009, Mohamed Morsi in 2012, and Sisi in 2014.

However, since 2014, Egypt has had to come to terms with the increasingly prominent role played by Qatar, particularly in funding Hamas through Israel. Once again, Egypt faces the prospect that other states, including Qatar, Turkey, and even some Gulf states, may take over its historical role as a mediator, further eroding Egypt’s waning leadership status in the

Arab world.

The third challenge emanates from the necessity for the Egyptian leadership to navigate public sentiment, which is resolutely supportive of the Palestinian cause, even if not necessarily of Hamas in particular. As the humanitarian crisis in Gaza intensifies, voices in Egypt and across the Arab world clamoring for intervention and even the suspension or severing of diplomatic ties with Israel are likely to grow in strength.

A deterioration in Egyptian-Israeli relations could result from several factors, ranging from the less severe to the most serious.

First, irresponsible declarations made by Israel, like the recent statement by Education Minister Yoav Kisch, urging Palestinians to leave Gaza for Egypt.

Second, the dissemination of potentially unreliable information, exemplified by the claim that Egypt warned Israel of a Hamas operation, a claim later refuted by official Egyptian sources.

Third, the appointment of another Arab mediator in place of Egypt, thereby diminishing Egypt’s historical role in peace negotiations.

Finally, and of utmost significance, an exacerbation of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza could prompt grassroots pressure on the regime to take action against Israel.

Egypt plays a pivotal role in Israel’s foreign relations within the Middle East, necessitating discreet and comprehensive coordination of its actions with Egypt through the established clandestine communication channels. A deterioration in Israeli-Egyptian relations also carries the potential to harm Israel’s connections with other moderate Arab states and significantly curtail Israel’s operational maneuverability in Gaza. Israel faces a delicate situation in its relations with Egypt and therefore it should navigate carefully.