The calm before the storm?
The Iranian attack on Israel on April 13-14 involved not just Iran but also Iran’s proxies. Iran operationalized the Houthis to also carry out attacks and Hezbollah also participated. However in the wake of the attack there have been two days of relative quiet in the region. Israel is carrying out limited operations in Gaza. However, in general the Gaza front has been quiet since Israel withdrew most of its forces, leaving one division in Gaza.
On the northern front Hezbollah has also reduced its fire after launching around 150 rockets the night of April 13 and 14, targeting Israeli bases in the Golan. This means Hezbollah is also weighing its next moves.
It’s not all quiet on the northern front. The IDF said on April 15 that “IDF fighter jets struck Hezbollah terrorists in a military compound in the area of Meiss El Jabal, as well as an additional Hezbollah military compound in the area of Tayr Harfa in southern Lebanon.”
On April 15 “following the sirens that sounded in the area of Hanita in northern Israel, approximately five launches that were identified crossing from Lebanon fell in open areas. No injuries were reported, the IDF struck the sources of fire,” the IDF said. The IDF also targeted Hezbollah sites in Markaba, Jabal Blat, Al-Hamra, and Majdal Zoun in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has fired 3,100 projectiles at Israel since October 7, so the front remains active.
In addition the IDF had to intercept two drones on the night of April 14 and on April 15. The drone threats, either from Yemen or Iraq, continue. However, that being said, there is still a lot of waiting and posturing in the region.
Could the risk of escalation also lead to a potential agreement. Hamas has rejected the latest Israeli offer. Hezbollah does not seem ready to withdraw from the border. Iran’s proxies, Hamas too, feel empowered. Iran’s entrenchment in Syria is also not likely to change, and may increase.
It remains to be seen what kind of pressure could be exerted on Hamas, Hezbollah or other Iranian proxies to change their behavior. The region has reached a new phase of the conflict that began on October 7. The April 13-14 Iranian attacks were a curtain raiser, just after the six month anniversary of October 7, is symbolic. But is this a quiet before the next storm or a new normal that could lead to de-escalation. Sometimes expectation of escalation leads to quiet, but when things are “too quiet,” a major conflict is brewing.