Listen to your friends
It’s good to have friends in high places who show up when you need them. That may be the most valuable lesson Iran unintentionally taught Israel last weekend, but as the smoke clears, the big question is whether Israel will heed friendly advice.
Israelis are caught between President Joe Biden’s counsel to “take the win” and their need to not let the attack go unanswered. The desire, even the need, to respond is understandable from both military and psychological perspectives. Israeli leaders have to ask themselves whether restraint, as its friends are urging, is a sign of strength or weakness. Will those friends keep coming to help when their concerns are ignored?
The defeat of the massive Iranian missile and drone assault was a stunning victory for Israel’s sophisticated, multi-tiered defense structure that includes anti-missile systems, aircraft, ships, cyber elements and satellites, but despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s boasts – “We intercepted; we blocked” – Israel had a lot of help.
More about the friends in a moment, but first let’s take a look at how Israel’s most lethal enemy helped, albeit unintentionally.
The Jewish state has been losing support of its traditional allies internationally and particularly in the United States, notably in its traditional bases in the Democratic Party and the Jewish community, as a result of the massive civilian casualties and humanitarian crisis it inflicted in its war against Hamas.
The Islamic Republic’s attack was “a major strategic error,” noted Richard Haass, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations. It was a classic case of ignoring Napoleon’s dictum “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” It was a sorely needed diversion for Israel from the political pounding it has been taking lately.
The Biden administration has been critical of Israel’s conduct of the war in Gaza but not before the president was accused of being too pro-Israel and too slow to react to the humanitarian crisis it created. Some political pros said his reelection was in danger since much of the harshest criticism came from voters traditionally in his camp. He has had little success in demanding that the Netanyahu government stop dragging its feet on humanitarian aid, call off its planned attack on Rafah, and make a serious effort for peace with the Palestinians. Biden is reportedly considering restrictions on weapons sales to Israel if that’s what it takes to get Netanyahu’s attention.
Yet, when the Islamic Republic threatened to attack, Biden quickly kept his promise of “ironclad” support for Israel and delivered. Last December the administration had made Israel a part of CENTCOM, the Central Command which coordinates regional defense operations among America and its allies. Its commander, Gen. Erik Kurilla, was in Israel last week to plan for a possible Iranian attack.
Biden has tried to discourage a military response – “Take the win” – and he told Netanyahu that if he chooses to retaliate, the US would not take part and any action should be limited enough to avoid a regional war.
As part of the administration’s campaign to discourage a wider conflict, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellin said it is working with its allies and partners to craft a “comprehensive response” of sanctions and other measures targeting Iran’s missile and drone program as well as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Israel’s friends and partners in the region are delivering the same message of restraint, and they earned the right to be listened to closely.
Iran gave Jordan and Saudi Arabia advance warning of its plan to attack Israel by going through their airspace, and they didn’t want their neighbors to mistake it as an attack on them. The tip was quickly relayed to Washington and Jerusalem. Both Arab countries went on to play a major role in the brief conflict and the defense of Israel.
The Islamic Republic fired 185 drones, 36 cruise missiles and 110 ballistic missiles, by Israeli count, mostly from Iran itself but also from Iraq and Yemen. Israel reported that 99% were intercepted before reaching its air space. It is hard to believe Tehran’s claims that the failure to inflict serious destruction or casualties was intentional; more credible is that the world witnessed an embarrassingly weak display of Iranian power.
The only casualty was a seven-year-old Bedouin girl injured by shrapnel. Some pictures showed Israeli Iron Dome interceptor missiles fired at incoming targets against a backdrop of the Temple Mount. Imagine the outcry if one of the Iranian missiles had struck al-Aqsa Mosque or the Dome of the Rock.
Jordan opened its airspace to US and Israeli interceptors, and its own air force downed a number of incoming targets as well. Saudi Arabia provided intelligence and other valuable support as did the UAE, Egypt, Bahrain and Morocco – that we know of. Although Britain and France played major roles, what is most noteworthy is the Sunni Arab states that came to Israel’s defense.
It was a major diplomatic victory for Biden that he could rally Arab states to the defense of Israel despite their historic enmity, their harsh criticism of its Gaza war and their own fear of retaliation by Iran and its clients within their own borders.
Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, a former CENTCOM commander, writing in The Wall Street Journal called the Iranian attack “indiscriminate” and “desperate” and that it “exposed the weakness of its much-touted missiles and drones.”
As Iran grows increasingly isolated and belligerent, its attack highlighted some of Israel’s greatest assets: its advanced air defense system and its growing network of friends and partners in the Arab world.
The challenge facing Netanyahu is not an easy one: whether to listen to the hawks in his coalition of extremists or the pleas of friends old and new to show restraint, avoid plunging them and Israel into a wider regional conflict and turn his attention to building a strong regional defense alliance.
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett prescribed “a set of soft and clever actions, short of military force,” by Israel and its partners.
As Israel weighs its response, its friends are reminding it that the October 7 Hamas attack brought great sympathy – which was soon squandered by the retaliation that produced massive civilian casualties and a humanitarian crisis, as well as great damage to Israel’s international stature and support. Will that lesson be learned?