The war in Gaza and Biden’s calculations in light of it
Is the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip affecting President Biden’s chances of winning a second term? This is one of the biggest questions observers are asking, especially since the US abstained from voting on the latest UN Security Council resolution about the war.
In my opinion, what’s really bothering the White House right now isn’t how the war might impact the outcome of the US presidential election. It’s Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s determination to push forward with his plan to storm the city of Rafah without even listening to or considering the American administration’s views – even though the US shares Israel’s goal of completely eliminating the terrorist Hamas movement.
However, Washington doesn’t want Jerusalem to take on the potential political fallout from a full-scale military invasion of the only city left in the Strip. It’s seeking solutions and exits that ensure keeping over a million Palestinians on neutral ground before carrying out an invasion.
Recently, Israeli-American relations have become an election issue, and Netanyahu’s insistence on storming Rafah even without US approval reflects his awareness of how the election factor is impacting things. He’s using the invasion threat to put maximum possible pressure on all parties without exception.
For example: The Biden administration is strongly pushing for a ceasefire and a deal to recover Israeli hostages kidnapped by the terrorist group Hamas, including Americans, as an utmost priority. Meanwhile, Netanyahu and his allies in the War Cabinet want to negotiate over hostages while applying maximum military pressure on Hamas – and they see continuing the war as the best way to extract concessions from the terrorist group.
No doubt the negotiation process has reached a stage where it’s hard to imagine Hamas agreeing to hand over hostages without achieving its key demands – which in addition to a prisoner exchange mainly consist of a permanent end to hostilities, or at least a truce leading to a permanent ceasefire with guarantees from mediators; withdrawal of Israeli forces; return of displaced people to their homes; and providing necessary humanitarian aid.
Those are conditions to which Israel finds it very difficult to fully agree. As a result, both sides of the conflict are waging an intense nail-biting game, with each trying to force the other to accept its terms.
This position isn’t helping President Biden, who seems to have lost the ability to influence the crisis – as reflected by the letter published in The New York Times from major Biden campaign donors threatening to stop pumping more money into his presidential bid. They see deteriorating living conditions in Gaza and rising civilian casualties among Palestinians as helping Trump’s campaign.
THE ISRAELI prime minister is playing the card of the US presidential election, while Biden appears unable to handle the crisis. Polling shows American public opinion has clearly shifted. A recent Gallup poll found 55% of Americans do not approve of Israel’s military response in Gaza – an increase of 10 percentage points since November.
According to the poll, only a little more than a third (36%) of Americans agree with Israel’s military actions in Gaza. That’s less than immediately after Hamas’s bloody terrorist attack on October 7, when half of Americans approved of Israel’s actions. The polling also found that approval rates for Israeli measures have fallen among Republicans from 71% in November to 64% now – and even sharper declines among Democrats, where less than one in five (18%) now say they approve of Israel’s actions.
These current poll numbers reveal a shift in attitudes. But it’s still too early to predict the presidential race’s outcome based on them, for a few key reasons. Importantly, the Gaza war isn’t over yet. What happens in the coming months before Election Day could dramatically change American public opinion. The impact of campaign ads and messaging is also a factor.
For now, what the Biden administration is doing is trying to take hold of the situation to ensure it doesn’t spin out of control. The goal is to manage the crisis in a way that minimizes potential political damage for the president. Abstaining from the UN Security Council vote was aimed at improving perceptions at home and abroad. Calculations in the White House decided this non-binding resolution wouldn’t significantly harm Israel.
Still, the US abstention wasn’t without an attempt to limit self-inflicted political wounds from strongly supporting its Israeli ally. It was a step back meant to create the impression of also pressuring Israel, even if not signaling any real change in firm US backing. As Biden’s national security spokesman John Kirby confirmed after the vote: “Our vote does not – and I repeat that – does not represent a shift in our policy.”
It seems the American president has become a lame duck in what may very well be his last year in office. The constant push-and-pull between him and Netanyahu in recent months has looked more like an election battle between the two men – as each tries appealing to their own bases by appearing stronger in the US-Israel relationship.