PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE

Neil Howe has devoted his life to studying the cycles and shifts of generational change (with William Strauss he was the one who coined “millennials”). Today, he says, a particular era is drawing to a close. Here’s what we can expect for the stretch of road that lies ahead.

We are all bound by the generation to which we belong, and our experiences framed by the generations which surround us. The ongoing health, economic and climate crises are all affecting the population in ways that are different according to our age. The virus attacks the young and the old in contrasting ways. The economic crisis traps young adults into living at home with their parents, and it can’t be addressed without tackling the disparity between those who have squeezed maximum benefit out of the welfare system and those who are still waiting in line. The generations are like waves ready to break and occupy the landscape of opportunities that others – the baby boomers at present – are slow to pass down.

2020 has acted as an accelerator of change. To picture what might lie ahead, we need to turn to someone who foresaw the present. In 1991, along with William Strauss (who died in 2007), the Californian demographer Neil Howe coined a term that has become part of our everyday language – the “millennial generation”. The two authors further explored the theme in 2000 in the book Millennials Rising. Having already analysed Generation X in 13th Gen (1993), as early as 1997 Howe and Strauss were warning of the “2020 crisis”, when an unspecified calamity would spawn a catastrophic hinge moment in history. This was a corollary of their theory put forward in The Fourth Turning, in which they predicted that before 2020 we would see a terrorist attack carried out with an aircraft and the arrival of a pandemic. More than this impressive foresight, however, it is their “fourth turning” theory that offers insights into the future. Strauss and Howe have speculated that each generation lasts 20-25 years and ends with a turning. Four of these generational eras constitute a historical period or cycle, which lasts from one crisis to the next. Here Howe, who heads consulting firm Lifecourse Associates and is 69 (and thus a baby boomer) lays out his predictions.

You have argued that we are entering the most dramatic phase of the fourth turning. What does the future hold?

Each turning has a transformative role and it can be triggered by an external change affecting the political, social and civil structure, or an internal “awakening” of the normative values governing our lives. At the start of this decade, it’s certainly the outside world that is overwhelming us. The world is not working, that’s clear.

When will the destructive phase end?

When the millennials [those born between 1981 and 1996] get to sit down at the table and bring their talents to bear... The renewal can only take place through the creative destruction of all the institutions governing us today. A phase of turmoil affecting every aspect of our political and social life will be followed by a creative phase.

Will the pandemic affect the generational turnover?

It’s an accelerator for change. It’s bringing the millennials into play. Their generation has lived between the financial crisis of 2008 and the crisis of today. It’s not uncommon, especially in Southern Europe, to see young jobless adults obliged to live with their parents. The pandemic has undermined the theory that the boomers [those born between 1946 and 1964] would be able to deal with an emergency like Covid-19 or the climate crisis. For millennials it’s democracy itself, the libertarian state that isn’t up to the task.

Will it be a problem for democracy?

Yes. Millennials have lost faith in democracy. The level of democratic discontent is now higher than at any time in the last quarter-century. Millennials don’t believe in the democratic state because it doesn’t invest in their growth and it neglects the long-term perspective, yet it finds pretexts to meet the needs of older generations. No Westerner likes the idea of an authoritarian state like China’s, but millennials are less worried because China prioritises their economic future.

Why is it necessary to wait a decade for the transfer of power?

First it’s the turn of Generation X [those born between 1965 and 1980]. It’s still too early for millennials to occupy roles of power. The Xers, the bridge builders, will have to ferry us out of the crisis. Then it will be up to the millennials to change the rules of the game, perhaps traumatically. The generation in the previous cycle that resembles the millennials – those who became adults between 1930 and 1940 – had to wait until the 1960s. Now it’s up to people like Kamala Harris.

Could she be a bridge between generations?

She has enough charisma. That’s unusual among Xers, the generation of which she is a senior member, who tend to shy away from the political limelight.

What will the millennials’ springtime be like?

The millennials dream of joining the middle class that we boomers hated because it was ubiquitous. When they gain power, freedoms as we understand them will no longer exist. The millennials aren’t interested in being transgressive. They’re not individualistic, they don’t break rules and they don’t want to leave the group. They’re searching for a centre.

What issues will generations be fighting over in the future?

Money. Hardly at all about ideology, which has been the key consideration of the elderly. The millennials don’t talk about ideals but about community, security, and a rational distribution of economic resources. They’ll find themselves on opposing sides when it comes to tackling the problem of public and private debt.

In 2021, does it make sense to talk about the passing of the torch between fathers and sons?

Yes. After World War II men had a lionlike role. They were like Superman, and that contributed to the development of feminism. By the 1980s, we’d already moved on from Superman to Supermum. The relationships change as generations get older, and I think that a positive recognition of fathers will return with the millennials. The boomers weren’t fighting against their parents but against their fathers. Now a reversal is swelling and there’s a lot of tension around being a man. The question that millennials ask me the most is what it means to be a man.

What do you call the American generation born after 2000?

The Homeland Generation, because of their interest in homeland security, and their lack of interest in travelling abroad. Their Gen X parents are so protective that it could hardly be otherwise... As adults, they’ll spend their lives trying to overcome the rules.